Death knell for a century-old driving skill: It is rapidly becoming a dying art that electric cars will kill off entirely
The act of changing gear is 'on its way out', with vehicle manufacturers already culling manual gearboxes, according to a market review.
It found that just 96 models in showrooms today are available with a manual transmission. In contrast, there are 404 new cars to buy that come exclusively with automatic gearboxes.
It means fewer than a fifth of new models now have a traditional gearstick - a feature that dates back to the 1891 Panhard et Levassor, the vehicle widely recognised as the first with a manual transmission.
And the skill of changing gear is likely to become obsolete entirely in new models once the sale of new petrol and diesel models is banned in 2030 and car makers can only sell hybrid and electric vehicles in showrooms - both of which use automatic gearboxes.
It also appears young drivers are preparing for this transition, with auto-only driving tests on the rise as new motorists ditch changing gear.
Almost one in four learners are now choosing to take their test in an automatic car, according to the latest figures published by the DVSA.
Of the 1,945,225 practical driving tests sat in the financial year 2023/24, 445,276 did so in automatics.
This represents 23.4 per cent of all tests.
It was a sharp increase on the year previous when just 19.2 per cent of tests (324,064 of 1,688,955) were auto-only.
Five years earlier (2019/20), automatic driving tests accounted for just 12.7 of all practical tests; and wind the clocks back a decade (to 2014/15) and they represented a mere 6.9 per cent of tests.
It means auto-only has risen from less than one in fourteen driving tests 10 years ago to one in four today.
However, pass rates in automatics - despite the general belief that they are easier to drive - are statistically lower.
In the last fiscal year, the pass rate for auto-only tests was just 42.8 per cent; for all driving tests, the average pass rate was 47.9 per cent.
The acceleration in popularity is despite auto-only licence holders facing one major restriction.
Anyone who passes in a manual car can legally drive any motor irrespective of its gearbox, but those who take auto-only tests are limited to only automatic vehicles.
While this could pose problematic in some scenarios, such as when drivers want to rent motors abroad and face higher costs or limiting availability of auto vehicles, the new car market shows a huge drive towards automatics.
In fact, the significant rise in auto-only tests mirrors the rapidly diminishing availability of new cars with manual transmissions in recent years.
In a similar study of the UK car market conducted by CarGurus, it found that the choice of new models with manual gearboxes had shrunk by 57 per cent compared to 2015.
It said, at the rate of decline currently see, the manual gearbox will be 'lost forever' in new motors by 2037.
The demise of the gear stick will gather pace more dramatically from 2030, when only hybrid and electric cars can be sold in Britain.
Every hybrid and EV available today comes with an automatic transmission, meaning the art of changing gear will be extinct in new cars from the end of the decade.
That said, some brands are using 'simulated' gearboxes, which are automatic systems tweaked to feel like a manual to provide an increased level of involvement for the driver.
Paul Barker, editor at Auto Express, said the sector is seeing a 'seismic shift in gearbox preference'.
'With EVs now exclusively automatic and more new drivers opting for auto-only licences, automatics are no longer the compromise choice – they're fast becoming the default,' he said.
While manuals are far more involving, Barker says that autos are becoming more appealing beyond their convenience.
Semi-automatic system's including VW's DSG, Porsche's PDK and BMW's DCT offer 'fast shifts, better fuel economy, and a sportier drive that appeals to both everyday users and enthusiasts,' he said.
'And the latest conventional automatics and CVTs deliver smooth, seamless performance – perfect for urban traffic and long-distance cruising alike.
'In many cases, they now outperform their manual counterparts.'
CarGurus' previous market analysis looked only at the existing availability of manual models from the 31 best-selling manufacturers in Britain.
It found that just 82 or the 278 models in showrooms came with a gear stick.
The analysis revealed that seven brands have already stopped selling new motors with manual transmissions.
Land Rover and Mini are now entirely auto only - both of them losing their last manual gearbox option in the last 12 months.
Other makers that also don't have manuals includes Lexus, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo - as well as EV-only makes, Polestar and Tesla.
The number of new models per brand with manual gearboxes
Audi: 4 - A1, A3, Q2, Q3
BMW: 3 - 1 Series, 2 Series (Gran Coupe), M2
Citroen: 6 - Berlingo, C3, C3 Aircross, C4, C4 X, C5 Aircross
Cupra: 2 - Formentor, Leon
Dacia: 5 (all) - Duster, Jogger, Sandero Stepway, Sandero, Bigster
Fiat: 2 - 500, 500C
Ford: 6 - Focus, Kuga, Mustang, Puma, Ranger, Tourneo
Honda: 1 - Civic TYPE R
Hyundai: 5 - Bayon, i10, i20, Kona, Tuscon
Jaguar*: 0
Jeep: 1 - Avenger (hybrid)
Kia: 4 - Ceed, Picanto, Sportage, Xceed
Land Rover: 0
Lexus: 0
Mazda: 5 - CX-30, CX-5, Mazda2, Mazda3, MX-5
Mercedes-Benz: 0
MG: 3 - MG3, HS, ZS
Mini: 0
Nissan: 2 - Juke, Qashqai
Peugeot: 2 - 2008, 208
Polestar: 0
Porsche: 3 - 911, Boxster, Cayman
Renault: 2 - Clio, Captur
Seat: 4 - Arona, Ibiza, Leon, Ateca
Skoda: 5 - Fabia, Kamiq, Karoq, Octavia, Scala
Suzuki: 4 - Ignis, S-Cross, Swift, Vitara
Tesla: 0
Toyota: 3 - Aygo X, GR Yaris, Hilux
Vauxhall: 3 - Astra, Corsa, Mokka
Volkswagen: 7 - Golf, Polo, Taigo, T-Cross, T-Roc, Touran, Transporter
Volvo: 0
TOTAL: 82
Source: CarGurus
*Jaguar current sells no new cars but had no manual gearbox models in 2024 and will be all-electric in 2026, meaning only automatic transmissions
Changing gear in a new car will be almost obsolete from the start of the next decade when only hybrid and electric vehicles are allowed to be sold in showrooms. All currently come with auto gearboxes
Manual gearbox defunct in new cars from 2030 - can it be saved?
From 2030, only conventional hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully-electric cars will be available from new in dealerships in Britain.
Currently, not a single model across these three fuel types have a manual gearbox. This is because an electric drivetrain with instant torque simply requires a single gear.
However, some brands are dabbling with systems that make an automatic feel more like a manual.
Hyundai's Ioniq 5 N hot SUV (costing from £65,000) already has a 'simulated' manual gearbox using paddleshifts behind the wheel.
Despite having a single-speed gearbox, the N e-shift system replicates the sensation and engine sound of a combustion engine.
It even has a rev counter redlined to 8,000rpm - once you hit this in a gear, it will accelerate no more, as with a conventional manual transmission. Change down the gears and it will simulate the blipping of the throttle.
It's a clever feature design to make EVs more engaging, with Toyota also developing its own simulated manual gearbox.
This has already been fed into the Japanese manufacturer's luxury brand, Lexus, with a simulated manual gearbox called 'Interactive Manual Drive' available in the new RZ SUV.
When the driver uses the fake gear stick and clutch to select first, the system will allow for lots of torque but have a low limited top speed in that gear. In sixth, there will be less torque available but will not have a limit on the electric motor speed
That said, the mechanical transmission most licence holders have learned to drive in will soon start to disappear when new cars transition to electric power.
Supercars and niche models built in low production volumes - think small sports car like Caterhams and Ariels - have also been given a stay of execution from the ban on new petrol and diesel models at the end of the decade.
It means only the super-rich and petrol head enthusiasts will theoretically still be able to buy manual cars after 2030.
However, by 2035 these are also likely to be forced to go electric, almost certainly rendering the gear shift extinct.
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