Russian and Chinese plans for Antarctic expansion spark alarm

Australia Broadcast Center

4 days ago

Experts warn Russia and China's plans to expand their presence in Antarctica may be linked to mining or military ambitions that are at odds with the nature reserve's peaceful governing principles.
Australia was among 58 signatories to the Antarctic Treaty, which covers activity in the region, which met behind closed doors in Milan in June and July.
Earlier this year, China announced plans to build a sixth permanent research station in Antarctica, while Russia is reopening and upgrading stations, as well as building a new runway for long-haul aircraft.
The two countries have also been accused of undermining conservation efforts by blocking new protections for marine areas.
Some experts have raised concerns the infrastructure and logistical expansions could be underpinned by non-scientific motivations.
Bill Muntean represented the United States at the 2023 meeting and is now a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a policy research not-for-profit organisation based in Washington DC.
"There are significant questions and concerns over activities in the oceans off Antarctica," he said.
"What are Russia and China doing with their scientific explorations?"
The Antarctic Treaty, which came into effect in 1961, prohibits military activity on the continent, and promotes scientific research.
China and Russia are both signatories.
Compounding the two nuclear-armed superpowers' expansion blueprint is the fact the White House has announced deep cuts to its Antarctic funding, totalling about $US60 million ($91.9 million).
Jeffrey McGee, an expert in the treaty from the University of Tasmania, said Russia, China and the US were "big players" in Antarctica.
"This pullback of funding from the United States means Australia has to be ready to step up, in terms of maintaining and increasing our scientific and logistics presence," Professor McGee said.
"We need to make sure that we maintain and grow our influence in the region to protect that national interest."
Professor McGee said some scientific equipment that had been installed on Antarctica could have dual uses.
"What we are talking about here are infrared telescopes, GPS and ground-station receivers that can communicate with satellites," he said.
"More and more of that equipment has been put into Antarctic research stations.
"That gives rise to the possibility of that equipment having a dual purpose, in the sense that it can be used for scientific uses, but it can also interface with military and surveillance satellites, upload and download information or be involved in military command control communication systems."
Increasing a strategic footprint in Antarctica could allow nations to secure future access to natural resources, strengthen geopolitical influence, and have a greater say in shaping the continent's future rules.
Antarctica offers untapped potential and global leverage when it comes to science and security, as data from research stations that collect scientific data can also be used for military or intelligence purposes.
Building outposts also gives countries a physical and technological presence that could be repurposed in the future.
A report by the UK parliament's Environmental Audit Committee released last month highlighted how Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine deepened the geopolitical rift among signatories to the Antarctic Treaty.
It questioned the purpose of Russia's seismic surveys in Antarctica, suggesting they could be about identifying natural resources.
"Geopolitical tension and the prospect of potential mineral reserves are straining peace and environmental protection in Antarctica," the report found.
"Antarctica's potential reserves of oil, coal and iron ore present a risk of future conflicts."
The committee's chair, Tobi Perkins, told the ABC that Russia and China's expansion in Antarctica needed to be watched closely.
"At this stage we don't know exactly what we should be worried about, but in the absence of dialogue and clarity and transparency, the Antarctic Treaty partners must maintain robust oversight," the MP said.
While Russia and China's expansion plans are within the rights of the Antarctic Treaty, Mr Muntean says he wants the number of inspections of bases on the continent to increase.
Under the treaty, countries are encouraged to hold each other to account over compliance issues.
For example, Australia has conducted inspections in Antarctica for more than 60 years, including at bases operated by China, Russia and Moscow's puppet state, Belarus.
"One can speculate on any number of things that can be happening in Antarctica," Mr Muntean said.
"There hasn't been evidence of commercial mining that I've seen, just a lot of concern that the scientific activity could eventually lead to commercial mining.
"But if there are any questions about what is down there for military equipment, personnel or reconnaissance, we need to check it out.
"Shine the flashlight underneath the bed — is that a teddy bear or is it some scary monster? We've got the flashlight. Use it."