Warren Hammond's Personal View: Gold to hit R91 935 - The case remains intact
A thoughtful question was recently asked of me by a Middle East–based institutional private credit fund manager: 'Could a slew of trade agreements trigger a sharp pullback in the gold price?'
While I acknowledge the potential for short-term price fluctuations, I remain confident that the structural drivers supporting gold's long-term ascent remain firmly intact.
Since that original recommendation, gold has moved materially higher. The $3,000 (R55,161) price target reached in early 2025 was upgraded to $5,000 (R91,935) on 26 February 2025, with a 12-month horizon.
Do I expect volatility? Certainly, a 5 – 8% correction is part of any healthy trend. But I do not anticipate a crash, even amid trade accords. The Broader Macro Context
To fully appreciate this view, one must consider the broader macro framework. In January 2016, I published 'The USA – Major Themes 2015–2033', arguing that this period would echo the historic transformation of 1895–1913, a time of seismic shifts in industry, finance, geopolitics, and technology.
Consider the parallels: Trade Protectionism – McKinley's 1897 tariffs vs. today's US-China duties
Energy Transition – Coal and electrification then, renewables and EVS now
Tech Disruption – Model T, plastics, and radio vs. AI, quantum, and robotics
Immigration Shifts – Labour realignment then and now
Financial Reset – The Panic of 1907 led to the Fed; today's system is again overstretched
Isolationism – Then and now, a pullback from global integration
In both eras, gold plays a stabilising role, not speculative, but a pillar of trust and monetary credibility.
Today: Central banks (Asia & Middle East) are stockpiling gold
De-dollarisation is accelerating
Supply constraints tighten the market (fewer discoveries, higher costs, underinvestment)
Geopolitical fragmentation boosts demand for a neutral store of value
Trade breakthroughs may soften headlines, but they don't cure structural excess, fiscal fragility, or currency erosion. They reconfigure, not resolve. Why Gold Remains Essential
Gold remains essential: a portfolio cornerstone, and a hedge, not just against inflation or conflict, but against systemic dysfunction, volatility, and monetary decline.
That's why my forecast stands: $5,000 (R91,935) within 12 months (from 26 Feb 2025).
This isn't merely a price call – it's a thesis shaped since March 2021, rooted in macro history, geopolitics, and structural insight.
The path to $ 5,000 (R91,935) is open. Who's positioned for it?
What's your take on gold's trajectory? Do you see $ 5,000 (R91,935) as realistic or too ambitious? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Maverick
12 hours ago
- Daily Maverick
The Weekend Wrap What Trump's tariffs mean for SA, and when the Gaza genocide became undeniable — all in the week's wrap.
Everything you need to know about the US-SA tariffs The Trump administration has set a non-negotiable deadline of 1 August for imposing new tariffs on the countries with which the US trades. Here's where South Africa stands. By Rebecca Davis The shunning — Jewish identity and belonging in a time of genocide in Gaza When the history books are written, the month of July 2025 is likely to go down as a turning point – a month when precisely engineered famine and the indiscriminate slaughter by tank- and rifle-fire of the starving left the world in little doubt that Israel was committing a horrendous genocide in Gaza. But would this also be the month that enough Jews saw the truth? By Kevin Bloom State Capture and the failure to implement the Zondo Commission's recommendations The Zondo Commission provides a valuable framework to eradicate State Capture and we must begin implementing its recommendations. We simply cannot afford another nine wasted years. By Letlhogonolo Letshele How UK investment is powering South Africa's jobs revolution UK investment and partnerships are turbocharging South African jobs, housing and digital markets — with real on-the-ground impact. By Lisakanya Venna Cricket's great divide: Elite schools still shaping the sport globally Top elite cricket countries such as South Africa, England and Australia continue to draw heavily from private education systems. In these nations, cricket success seems almost tied to one's school uniform. If cricket boards want to promote equity and competitiveness, they will need to broaden the talent search by investing in grassroots cricket infrastructure in under-resourced areas. By Habib Noorbhai The 'soft vengeance' of Albie Sachs takes centre stage in exhibition at Zeitz Mocaa A new exhibition showcases Albie Sachs' 'soft vengeance' through art in a tribute to artists, freedom fighters, cultural workers and social justice advocates who gave of themselves in the ongoing pursuit of collective liberation. By Kristin Engel Piles of sh*t — solutions to Africa's nappy pollution crisis Plastic pollution was a big-ticket item at a recent meeting of African environment ministers in Nairobi. The experience of communal farmers in the Eastern Cape, who are tackling single-use nappies polluting their veld, shows that we need a whole-of-society response to stop indestructible plastics from befouling our environment, bodies and economy. By Leonie Joubert Watch – Inner voices: What if you don't have one? Some people don't have an 'inner voice', but maybe those who do shouldn't be smug. By Marianne Thamm In rhythm with the land: The quiet strength of everyday village life In this photo essay, Daily Maverick photojournalist Felix Dlangamandla visits Bulungula village, along the Eastern Cape's Wild Coast. By Felix Dlangmandla Journey through Kimberley: Explore the legends, battlefields and vibrant life of the diamond city Discover the secrets of Kimberley — a well-known, old city shaped by conflict, captivating characters and, most of all, diamonds. By Chris Marais Daily Mini Crossword Quickie Play here. Seven-hour lamb shank and date tagine I didn't think I'd be able to fit these four large lamb shanks into my tagine, but with a bit of careful rearranging, there they were, out of sight behind the conical lid. By Tony Jackman Subscribe to First Thing to receive the Weekend Wrap in your inbox every Sunday morning. If you value the work our journalists do and want to support Daily Maverick, consider becoming a Maverick Insider. Support DM
IOL News
a day ago
- IOL News
AngloGold Ashanti reports record profits and strong share price growth
A worker pours gold at the AngloGold Ashanti mine at Obuasi, Ghana. The group paid a 80 US cents a share dividend for the second quarter to June 30, well up from 22 US cents a year before. Image: Reuters AngloGold Ashanti's share price continued a 12-month rally on Friday, gaining a strong 6.39% after it reported a 151% increase in second-quarter profit on record gold prices and higher production. The share price rise to R877.96 added to a more than 74% rally in the price over 12 months. A second quarter dividend of 80 US cents per share was declared, substantially up from 22 cents at the same time last year. The group has since 2021 returned about $1.2bn to shareholders, and the total dividend for the second quarter amounted to $406 million. The gold miner's headline earnings increased to $639m in the three months to June 30, from $255m in the same period a year before. "This is another strong result that demonstrates our focus on cost control and the positive momentum we're building across the business. We're reaping the benefit of consistent production and cash flow growth, supported by disciplined capital allocation," said CEO Alberto Calderon. Gold production increased by 21% to 804 000 ounces, with growth driven by strong output at Obuasi mine in Ghana, Geita Gold Mine in Tanzania, and Egypt's Sukari Gold Mine, in which the group had acquired a 50% stake in 2024. All-in-sustaining costs (AISC) remained flat in real terms for managed operations. Free cash flow increased 149% to $535m. Net debt fell a massive 92% to $92m. The group directors said the performance was due to the higher average gold price received per ounce, continued cost discipline, and the increase in gold production. The average gold price received increased to $3 287/oz in the second quarter, from $2 330/oz in the same quarter in 2024. On Friday evening, the spot gold price was trading at $3348.75, up 2.18% on the day. The disposal of the Archean-Birimian Contact (ABC) and Doropo projects in Côte d'Ivoire was completed in May, and the proposed sale of Serra Grande mine in Brazil was announced in June. The consolidation of the Beatty District in Nevada was continuing, including the proposed acquisition of Augusta Gold, which will strengthen its position in "the most significant emerging gold district in the US" and enhance an ability to develop the region under a unified regional plan. The interim dividend of 80 US cents included the minimum quarterly dividend of 12.5 US cents, with the balance reflecting a decision to pay half of free cash flow generated for the six months through to June 30. 'While our dividend policy commits to this 'true up' payment to 50% of free cash flow annually at year-end, the company's board used its discretion to make the payment at the half-year, given the strength of cash flows and its confidence in the outlook,' said Calderon. The group ended the quarter with liquidity of $3.4bn, including $2bn in cash and cash equivalents. Headline earnings rose to $639m, or $1.25 per share, compared to $255m, or $0.60 per share, in the second quarter of 2024 — an increase of 151% and 108% year-on-year, respectively. The production improvements were led by Geita, which continued to deliver strong operating results, and Obuasi, where the ramp-up of underhand drift-and-fill mining progressed on schedule, supporting the 21% year-on-year increase in grade. Siguiri, Cerro Vanguardia, and Cuiabá also posted modest gains. These were partly offset by declines at Iduapriem, Serra Grande, and Tropicana, while Sunrise Dam held steady. Total cash costs for the group increased 8% year-on-year to $1 226/oz from $1 137/oz. For managed operations, cash costs rose 6% year-on-year to $1 241/oz, while AISC rose 4% to $1 694/oz. These increases were driven mainly by a 28% increase in capital expenditure, inflationary cost pressures of about 5%, and a $60/oz average increase in the overall royalty charge linked to the higher gold price. These factors were partly offset by higher gold sales volumes. Visit:
The Citizen
a day ago
- The Citizen
24 hours in pictures, 1 August 2025
24 hours in pictures, 1 August 2025 Through the lens: The Citizen's Picture Editors select the best news photographs from South Africa and around the world. Congress activists burn an effigy of US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as they protest against the Indo-US trade deal, after the former imposed 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods, during a demonstration in Kolkata on August 1, 2025. President Trump labelled Russia and US ally India 'dead economies,' indicating that his threat to ramp up tariffs on New Delhi will now go ahead. India will face 25 percent tariffs while also announcing an unspecified 'penalty' over New Delhi's purchases of Russian weapons and energy. (Photo by Dibyangshu SARKAR / AFP) Participants attend the launch of Ghana's Affirmative Action (Gender Equality) Act at the Accra International Conference Centre, in Accra, Ghana, 31 July 2025. 31 July marks the official launch of Ghana's Affirmative Action Act which was passed a year ago by Ghana's Parliament. Ghana's Affirmative Action (Gender Equality) Act, 2024, mandates a minimum of 30 percent women's representation across public institutions, increasing to 50 percent by 2030. It also introduces penalties for non-compliance, tax incentives for private sector adherence, and applies to political parties, trade unions, the judiciary, and public agencies. Picture: EPA/FRANK KPORFOR Cowboy boots are seen at the Rio of Mercedes cowboy boot factory, on July 31, 2025, in Mercedes, Texas. In an unusual consequence of Donald Trump's tariffs, cowboy boots 'made in the USA' will suffer from the 30% tariff due to come into force on August 1 targeting South Africa, which produces the overwhelming majority of the ostrich leather so prized for these boots. (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP) (L-R) Silver medallist South Africa's swimmer Pieter Coetze, gold medallist Hungary's swimmer Hubert Kos and bronze medallist France's swimmer Yohann Ndoye-Brouard celebrate on the podium of the men's 200m backstroke swimming event during the 2025 World Aquatics Championships in Singapore on August 1, 2025. (Photo by MANAN VATSYAYANA / AFP) This handout photo taken over Gaza and released on August 1, 2025 by the Spanish Ministry of Defence shows the release of humanitarian aid from a Spanish Air Force Airbus A400M Atlas airplane over Gaza. (Photo by HANDOUT / Spain Defence Ministry / AFP) Festival-goers attend the first day of the Pol'and'Rock Festival in Czaplinek, north-western Poland, 31 July 2025. The festival will run until 02 August. Picture: EPA/JERZY MUSZYNSKI A fisherman smokes a beedi, a hand-rolled cigarette, as he rests inside his boat on the banks of the Yamuna River in New Delhi on August 1, 2025. (Photo by Arun SANKAR / AFP) Hot air balloons are prepared to participate during the celebration of the XXV International Hot Air Balloon Regatta 'Haro, capital of Rioja' and the XLI Spanish Aerostation Championship, in Haro, La Rioja, Spain, 31 July 2025. The events take place from 30 July to 03 August. Picture: EPA/RAQUEL MANZANARES Members of the Gumatj clan of the Yolngu people from north-eastern Arnhem Land perform the Bunggul traditional dance during the 25th annual Garma Festival in Gulkula, Northern Territory, Australia, 01 August 2025. Garma Festival, Australia's most significant Indigenous cultural gathering, is held each year on Yolu Country in northeast Arnhem Land, uniting ceremony, community, and national dialogue as it celebrates a significant 25-year milestone in 2025. Picture: EPA/JAMES ROSS Soldiers of the Croatian Armed Forces take part in a military parade in Zagreb, Croatia, 31 July 2025. Croatia marked the 30th anniversary of Operation Storm, the last major battle of the Croatian War of Independence in August 1995, with a military parade featuring more than 3,500 soldiers and several hundred military vehicles. Picture: EPA/ANTONIO BAT A cosplayer in the character of Zhuge Liang of a video game poses during ChinaJoy, known as China Digital Entertainment Expo and Conference, at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre in Shanghai on August 1, 2025. (Photo by Hector RETAMAL / AFP) MORE: 24 hours in pictures, 31 July 2025
