Are the Twins headed for another inactive trade deadline as ownership uncertainty looms?

New York Times

a day ago

Trade deadline month is here, but any discussion about what the Minnesota Twins will do between now and July 31 should start with what they've done — or more accurately, haven't done — at the previous two deadlines.
Last season, the Twins were 58-47 on deadline day, good for the American League's fourth-best record and in prime position for a playoff spot with 57 games remaining. FanGraphs calculated the Twins' chances of reaching the playoffs at 78.6 percent, also fourth-best in the league.
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Coming off their first playoff success in two decades, the Twins were again winning games, giving fans reason to believe another exciting October was possible, and they seemingly had an obvious need for veteran rotation help, among other potential weak areas on the roster to address.
So what did the Twins do? Nothing. Well, that's not quite true. They made a last-minute deal for journeyman middle reliever Trevor Richards, acquiring the 31-year-old right-hander with a career 4.51 ERA from the Toronto Blue Jays for marginal High-A infield prospect Jay Harry.
Writing about the Richards pickup the next morning, I called it 'the least consequential trade the Twins could have made' and 'far closer to making an inexpensive, low-stakes trade simply to be able to say you made a trade than an actual meaningful upgrade.'
President of baseball operations Derek Falvey defended the Twins' lack of deadline activity by suggesting they pursued starting pitchers only to find selling teams were asking more from them than from other suitors. He also downplayed the impact payroll constraints had on their deadline plans.
Richards didn't even make it to September with the Twins, who sent him to the minors after a disastrous four-week stretch in which he totaled 11 walks and seven wild pitches in 13 innings. And the rotation predictably struggled as the Twins collapsed down the stretch, missing the playoffs.
Had to grab this and sync it with the video https://t.co/60qc20NxK8 pic.twitter.com/I4K3mWKpzP
— CJ Fogler 🫡 (@cjzero) August 24, 2024
Two years ago, at the 2023 deadline, the Twins were just 54-53, but that was enough to lead the historically inept AL Central by one game and carry 71.7 percent playoff odds, per FanGraphs. Despite the team being in first place following back-to-back losing seasons, the Twins did next to nothing.
Six days before the deadline, they traded Jorge López to the Miami Marlins for Dylan Floro in a swap of underperforming relievers. And then they sat out the deadline entirely, choosing not to make any additional moves. Floro didn't even make the playoff roster after posting a 5.29 ERA in 17 innings.
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Leading up to the 2023 deadline, Falvey said the Twins 'want to find ways to upgrade' and would target 'complementary pieces.' After doing nothing, he rationalized it by saying some presumed sellers changed plans late, and the Twins didn't want to bump players off their roster for non-upgrades.
To the Twins' credit, they went 33-22 after the trade deadline in 2023 to win the division with ease over four losing teams. And then they won a playoff series for the first time since 2002, defeating the Blue Jays in back-to-back games at Target Field before falling to the Houston Astros in the ALDS.
Would it have made a difference in October if the Twins had addressed their most obvious pre-deadline needs by trading for a reliever they actually felt comfortable using or adding a right-handed hitter to the outfield mix? We'll never know, because the front office sat on its hands at the deadline.
I mean… what do you expect when you cover the Walls in targets? pic.twitter.com/DWFyJh6vKE
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) September 12, 2023
Every season is different, and every trade deadline has its own set of unique circumstances. But if the front office wasn't willing/able to bring in help for a 58-47 team with 78.6 percent playoff odds in 2024, or for a first-place team with 71.7 percent playoff odds in 2023, why would the Twins be buyers now?
With four weeks until this season's deadline, the Twins have the AL's fifth-worst record at 41-45, including 15-25 since their 13-game winning streak in May. They trail the Detroit Tigers by double-digit games in the division and sit eighth in a race for three wild-card spots, with 20.6 percent playoff odds.
'(Selling) is not my focus right now by any means,' Falvey said last week. 'If we have to cross that bridge, we'll cross that bridge later. But that's not at all our focus right now. It's to figure out how to get this team right back to where it needs to be.'
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Beyond the disappointing on-field results, the ownership situation isn't any different nine months after the Pohlad family put the team up for sale. And if anything, owners who failed to spend for the past two offseasons and past two deadlines seem especially unlikely to do so on their way out the door.
For a front office that hasn't made any substantial moves for going on three years, it's only natural to assume this season's trade deadline approach will involve standing pat or tinkering on the roster's margins. And if the Twins do decide to get aggressive, selling makes more logical sense than buying.
However, selling is also complicated by the uncertain ownership situation. New owners often bring in their own front-office group, and the Falvey-led front office missing the playoffs four times in five seasons wouldn't provide much results-based motivation to retain the Pohlads' people.
If the front office is worried about job security, it could be motivated to fight for a playoff spot despite poor odds and wouldn't be inclined to trade veterans. And if the front office may not be sticking around, why empower it to make big trades — buying or selling — with future ramifications?
This uncertainty is tricky, and a prime example of how a team's ownership situation being up in the air can have a wide-ranging, negative effect on the front office's decision-making process and big-picture approach that is well beyond simply setting payroll limitations.
(Photo of Derek Falvey: Abbie Parr / Associated Press, File)