Mysterious poll on Santa Fe mayoral race finds large majority of voters undecided

Yahoo

26-06-2025

The takeaways of a new poll on the Santa Fe mayor's race exclaim there is 'deep voter dissatisfaction' with Mayor Alan Webber and the City Council, noting a '70% disapproval rating' and 'over 45% of respondents saying the city is on the 'wrong track.' '
Pollsters found the 'election is wide open, with no candidate breaking 15% support in initial polling and a staggering 57% of voters undecided.'
Lower in the 'Polling Memo,' released earlier this week, the undecided rate was listed as 58% and Councilor Michael Garcia — the leader of the pack — had seized support from 15%.
He was followed closely by former Councilor Ron Trujillo, with 13%. Tarin Nix, deputy commissioner of public affairs for the State Land Office, secured 5%. The dismal support for the remaining candidates drops to low single digits. However, the combined numbers for 'undecided' voters and all seven candidates — including County Commissioner Justin Greene, who just joined the race Wednesday — accounted for 101.5% of those surveyed.
The new poll, concluding the mayoral race is 'highly fluid and ready for a fresh candidate,' is shrouded in mystery. It's unclear who commissioned the survey, who conducted it and who released the results. The memo states it was conducted May 31 through June 4 and was completed by 508 people who 'organically matched the expected voter composition and demographics.'
'Likely voters were solicited via email and text messages,' according to the memo.
Some voters appeared to receive links to the SurveyMonkey poll as early as May 30, when The New Mexican reported on a 14-question survey that stated at the bottom, 'Paid for by Friends of Joe Geller.'
The results of the poll were provided to The New Mexican by Nix, who said her campaign was not behind it. She did not disclose the names of those who presented her with the results. The memo states it was from 'Palm Media/Friends of JG.' Nix said 'Friends of JG' is a political action committee based in Florida.
A business with the name 'Palm Media' could not be found in New Mexico, and out-of-state companies with the name could be reached for comment. An online filing on the website for VR Systems Inc. — which provides election software and hardware — lists Palm Media LLC in Miami as a contributor to the political committee 'Friends of Joe Geller.'
But a committee with the name 'Friends of JG' or 'Friends of Joe Geller' could not be found in the Florida Division of Elections database or the Political Committee Index of the New Mexico Secretary of State's Office.
A Miami-Dade County candidate named Joe Geller who served in the Florida state House for years was elected in a school board race in 2024.
Bottom four contenders
The mayor's race poll was conducted as rumors emerged indicating Greene was considering a run for mayor, but neither Greene nor his campaign had anything to do with the poll, according to spokesperson Sergio Mata-Cisneros.
The results of the poll place Greene fifth, with support from 2.5% of respondents.
His campaign wasn't discouraged by his poor showing.
'Justin announced his campaign today, calling for change and fresh leadership — and this poll shows that's exactly what Santa Feans are looking for,' Mata-Cisneros wrote in an email to The New Mexican.
Leading candidate Garcia said in a statement, 'Our campaign has always been rooted in addressing the needs of our community, and it's why we've already qualified for the ballot.'
Former Councilor JoAnne Vigil Coppler received support from 4% of respondents. Letitia Montoya — whose name is misspelled in the memo — and former city Finance Director Oscar Rodriguez, who is now the chief financial officer for the New Mexico Finance Authority, both received support from 2%. Vigil Coppler, who has worked in the real estate industry, and Trujillo, a staff manager with the state Department of Transportation, have both run for mayor in previous races. Montoya, a retired financial executive, has also run for county clerk.
No ranked-choice winner?
Voters casting ballots in the mayor's race will get to rank the candidates under the city's ranked choice voting system, also known as an 'instant runoff.' Survey participants, too, were asked to rank the candidates.
'Even in ranked-choice simulations, no candidate earns dominant support across the board,' the memo states. 'Voters appear split, with no consensus on a leading figure.'
The memo offers no explanation for simulations that failed to identify a winning candidate.
In the city's system, ballots would be tallied in multiple rounds — dropping the candidates with the fewest votes and counting those voters' second, third and even fourth or fifth choices — until one candidate has more than 50% of the votes. A ranked-choice election with no winner is unlikely — the last two candidates would have to secure an equal number of votes in a final round.
The poll also asked participants which issues were most important to them. The top concerns: crime and public safety, housing affordability, traffic and infrastructure, and homelessness.
'With more than half of voters undecided and deep dissatisfaction with current leadership,' the memo states, 'the 2025 Santa Fe mayoral race is highly fluid. This presents a rare opportunity for a fresh candidate with a clear, solutions-oriented platform focused on crime, housing, and traffic/infrastructure to emerge as a contender.'
Cynthia Miller of The New Mexican contributed to this report.