National Hurricane Center tracking 4 tropical waves. August brings increased risk for hurricanes
"August arrives with a whiff of impending calamity," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger, who also described August as "the worst month of the year." Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
Water temperatures from the coast of Africa to the Gulf and southwestern Atlantic are at or above 80 degrees, which supports tropical development, according to AccuWeather.
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While the National Hurricane Center anticipates no tropical activity over the next seven days, AccuWeather forecasters are keeping an eye on an area showing potential for development off the U.S. east coast in early August.
"Historically, there have been about 30 August U.S. major hurricane landfalls in the last 175 years, with a clear preference for these most powerful storms to strike the western Gulf," Truchelut said.
Most storms develop between mid-August and mid-October, and forecasters said several signs are out there indicating activity will be picking up.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter. The fourth named storm in the Atlantic basin typically arrives Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11.
Forecasters warn now is the time to prepare for a hurricane, and you can save on hurricane supplies starting today. A permanent ban on sales taxes for certain hurricane supplies began Friday, Aug. 1.
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In the Pacific, forecasters are watching five tropical systems, including Tropical Storms Gil and Iona. Gil is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today.
➤ Pacific hurricane season up to 9 named storms. What about Atlantic?
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. Aug. 1:
What is the National Hurricane Center tracking in the tropics?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including two in the Caribbean.
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 55W, and moving west around 17 mph.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 66W south of 20N, moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis near 81W south of 20N, moving west at 6 to 11 mph.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"In the coming days, we will be watching the zone from northeast of Florida to just off the Carolina coast for tropical development," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
➤ Enjoy quietest start to hurricane season since 2009; but back half could be brutal
"Initially, this area, as well as farther west over the interior of the Carolinas, Georgia, northern Florida and southern Alabama, will be quite active in terms of drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms from this weekend to early next week.
"Fronts that stall near the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic sometimes can slowly brew a tropical storm or a storm that forms along the front and becomes tropical over time. The latter tends to have much greater wind potential than a non-tropical storm and can go on to become a powerful hurricane.
"Roughly from Saturday, Aug. 2, to Tuesday, Aug. 5, is the time frame for a tropical storm to develop just off the U.S. southern Atlantic coast," DaSilva said, adding steering breezes would likely guide any storm away from the U.S. later next week.
"By the middle of next week, it's worth keeping an eye on the area between Florida, the Carolinas, and Bermuda, where one such wave may interact with a stalled-out cold front. But overall, I don't see significant tropical threats to the U.S. in the first third of August," Truchelut said.
"Historically, there have been about 30 August U.S. major hurricane landfalls in the last 175 years, with a clear preference for these most powerful storms to strike the western Gulf."
Could Florida feel any impacts from potential system off US coast?
Regardless of development, tropical moisture that interacts with the stalled front and low pressure associated with a brewing storm is likely to unleash torrential downpours along the southern Atlantic Coast to the northeastern Gulf Coast from this weekend to early next week, according to AccuWeather.
In areas that receive these downpours repeatedly day after day, the threat for flash flooding will grow and increase, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
The worst rain is predicted to miss Florida, but areas across the Panhandle and North Florida could see between 2 to almost 4 inches of rain, according to NOAA.
The worst rain is expected to fall across southeast Georgia to coastal South Carolina, which could see 4 to 8 inches of rain over several days, AccuWeather warned. "Those with beach plans should be mindful of locally rough surf, thunderstorm downpours and the risk of brief tornadoes and waterspouts.
Tropical Storm Gil expected to strengthen into hurricane in Pacific
The National Hurricane Center is tracking four systems in the Pacific, including the seventh named storm in the eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Gil.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Gil is expected to become a hurricane today, Aug. 1.
Iona is weakening, with maximum sustained winds now at 45 mph. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin Aug. 3.
: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a trough of low pressure located well south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable, anddevelopment is no longer anticipated.
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week.
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development.
Most of Florida under heat advisory
On July 31, almost all of Florida — the lone exception was Monroe County — was under a heat advisory. On Friday, Aug. 1, heat advisories have been issued for Florida except for the western tip of the Panhandle and most of the west coast.
Pensacola, western Panhandle: Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 106.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: A heat advisory is in effect through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Jacksonville, North, Northeast Florida: The heatwave is expected to continue into Saturday. Don't be fooled by slightly lower air temps this weekend; the humidity will make it feel dangerously hot, with heat index values hitting 105-112. A heat advisory begins at 10 a.m.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, central and eastern Florida: Stretch of hazardous heat continues. A heat advisory is in effect for all of East Central Florida today for heat index values up to 110 degrees. Showers and storms begin along the sea breeze by midday, moving inland in the afternoon/evening.
South Florida: A heat advisory is in effect from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. today. Offshore scattered showers continue on both coasts this morning.
Southwest, western Florida: temperatures trending back closer to normal as rain chances increase. Temps in the mid 90s, with heat index between 100 and 107.
2025 hurricane season so far
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages:
Tropical Storm Andrea: formed June 24. Average start date: June 20
Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17
Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3.
Next up, Dexter: Average start date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11.
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Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea (June 24)
Barry (June 29)
Chantal (July 5)
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
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This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Hurricane Center hurricane forecast, Florida impacts for August
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