World is going through a new era of conflict escalation
AS India's defence chief attended an international security conference in Singapore in May, soon after India and Pakistan fought what many in South Asia now dub "the four-day war", he had a simple message: Both sides expect to do it all again.
However, Indian Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan denied either nation had come close to the "nuclear threshold", describing a "lot of messaging" from both sides.
There have been several dramatic examples of escalation in several global stand-offs over the past two months.
Recent weeks have witnessed what is now referred to in Israel and Iran as their "12-day war". It ended last week with a US-brokered ceasefire.
As events in Ukraine have shown, conflict between major nations can become normalised at speed — whether that means "just" an exchange of drones and missiles, or a more existential battle.
More concerning still, such conflicts appear to have become more serious throughout the current decade, with plenty of room for further escalation.
This month, that included an audacious set of Ukrainian-organised drone strikes on long-range bomber bases deep inside Russian territory, destroying multiple aircraft which, as well as striking Ukraine, have also been responsible for carrying the Kremlin's nuclear deterrent.
Simmering in the background, meanwhile, is the largest and most dangerous confrontation of them all — that between the United States and China.
US officials say Beijing has instructed its military to be prepared to move against Taiwan from 2027, potentially sparking a hugely wider conflict.
Addressing senators on Tuesday, America's next top commanders in Europe and the Middle East were unanimous in their comments that the US strikes against Iran would strengthen Washington's hand when it came to handling Moscow and Beijing.
Chinese media commentary was more mixed.
Han Peng, head of state-run China Media Group's North American operations, said the US had shown weakness to the world by not wanting to get dragged into the Iran conflict due to its "strategic contraction".
Other social media posts talked of how vulnerable Iran looked, with nationalist commentator Hu Xijn warning: "If one day we have to get involved in a war, we must be the best at it."
On that front, the spectacle of multiple US B-2 bombers battering Iran's deepest-buried nuclear bunkers — having flown all the way from the US mainland apparently undetected — will not have gone unnoticed in Moscow or Beijing.
Nor will President Trump's not so subtle implications that unless Iran backed down, similar weapons might be used to kill its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or other senior figures, wherever they might hide.
None of America's adversaries have the ability to strike without warning in that way against hardened, deepened targets, and the B-2 — now being replaced by the more advanced B-21 — has no foreign equal.
In reality, the threat of an overwhelming US military response, and hints of an accompanying switch of US policy to outright regime change or decapitation in Iran, coupled with the Israeli military success against Hizbollah and Hamas, appear to have forced Teheran to largely stand down.
What that means in the longer term is another question.
Behind the scenes and sometimes in public, US and allied officials say they are still assessing the implications of the success of Ukraine and Israel in infiltrating large numbers of short-range drones into Russia and Iran, respectively, for two spectacular attacks in recent weeks.
According to Ukrainian officials, the drones were smuggled into Russia hidden inside prefabricated buildings on the back of trucks, with the Russian drivers unaware of what they were carrying until the drones were launched.
Israel's use of drones on the first day of its campaign against Iran is even more unsettling for Western nations.
Its drones were smuggled into Iran and, in some cases, assembled in secret there to strike multiple senior Iranian leaders and officials in their homes.
As they met in The Hague last week for their annual summit, Nato officials and commanders would have considered what they must do to build their own defences to ensure that they do not prove vulnerable to a similar attack.
Judging by reports in the Chinese press, military officials there are now working on the same.
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New Straits Times
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Reuters' interviews with four senior Ukrainian officials, two aid officials and Western diplomats and analysts for this story, along with access to new missions in Mauritania and Democratic Republic of Congo, reveal new details about Kyiv's Africa strategy including the deliveries of aid to Malian refugees, the proposal to train Mauritania's military, and the broader bid to counter Russia's much more entrenched presence. Early in the Ukraine war, many African countries declined to take Kyiv's side at the United Nations, even after Russia's bombing of Ukraine's ports drove up prices on the continent as exports of food and fertiliser were curtailed. Months later, Ukraine produced its first Africa strategy, a public document. The stated goals were to counter Russia's narrative and increase trade and investment on a continent that remembers Russian support in the Cold War and Moscow's stance against apartheid. Subkh was appointed to lead the effort, and Kyiv has since opened eight out of 10 new embassies announced in 2022, he said, bringing to 18 the number of missions Ukraine has in Africa. Host countries include Ivory Coast and Congo, which condemned Russia's invasion early on. Kyiv plans to open an embassy this year in Sudan, where Russia is accused by the US of arming both sides in a brutal conflict. Russia denies a role there. However, Kyiv cannot match an opponent with deep commercial and security ties, including a long-standing presence of Moscow's intelligence agencies. In total, Russia has around 40 missions in Africa, and recently announced plans to open seven more. Ukraine wants to persuade African nations that its fight against Russia, its Soviet-era master, has parallels with their own efforts to overcome the legacy of European colonialism, Subkh said. Despite the offer of military training, Ukraine's wartime effort to win African allies has largely focused on food. Kyiv says it has sent nearly 300,000 tonnes as aid, distributed through the World Food Programme (WFP) under an EU and US-financed scheme called Grain from Ukraine that rivals a similar Russian food aid plan for Africa. The Ukrainian-branded aid has reached 8 million people in 12 countries, the European Policy Centre, a think-tank, said in April. Recipients have included Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Nigeria, Kenya and Sudan. In Mauritania it has mostly been destined for Mbera, West Africa's largest refugee camp, housing soaring numbers of Malians fleeing the Russia-backed forces across the border. And after the reopening of Black Sea ports bombarded and blockaded by Russia in the first two years of war, Ukraine exported nearly 10 million tonnes of grain to Africa in 2024, almost double the previous year, agriculture ministry data shows. By showing it is a major alternative to Russian food supplies, Ukraine hopes African nations that have maintained neutrality over the war will begin to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. "Maintaining its role as one of the guarantors of the world's food security, Ukraine can prevent Russia from using food supplies as political leverage," Roman Sereda, Ukraine's chargé d'affaires in Nouakchott, where Russia has had an embassy for six decades, said in an interview. Ukraine is gaining visibility. In April, Volodymyr Zelenskyy became the first Ukrainian president to visit South Africa, a close Russia ally. He called for recognition of Ukraine's struggle and playing up potential deals on energy, fertiliser production and security. South African foreign ministry spokesman Chrispin Phiri said both Ukraine and Russia were allies. He said South Africa advocated for peace and was mediating on humanitarian issues such as the return of Ukrainian children Kyiv says were taken to Russia. 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Sereda, the chargé d'affaires who joined Bort some months ago, said Ukraine's outreach and aid deliveries had improved Kyiv's reputation and Mauritanians' understanding of its position, with increased trade links hopefully to follow. Elsewhere, aid recipients have included war-ravaged Democratic Republic of Congo, where Ukraine's ambassador Vasyl Hamianin told Reuters the two countries were discussing long-term agriculture and food security agreements. "We accepted the Ukrainian embassy in a spirit of openness and cooperation. There is no need to link its presence to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine," Congo's presidential office said in a statement.
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