Emigration up, immigration down: Trends contributing to slower population growth, says StatsCan
Why do they leave?
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Some faced difficulty 'in integrating economically in Canada' and adjusting to their new country of residence.
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The StatCan report cites a study (Barauch et al. 2007) that stated family and labour market conditions 'are the main reasons that international students leave the United States and the United Kingdom.' The challenges faced by immigrants in the Canadian labour market — particularly recent immigrants— are well documented, says StatCan.
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However, some may have personal reasons for leaving, such as the death of a loved one in their country of origin, Canada's climate, and/or adjusting to Canada's language(s) and culture. Older immigrants may return to their country to retire.
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StatCan says emigrating may even be part of an immigrant's overall migration strategy. It cites the rise of communication and transportation technology facilitating more than one residence, as well as ongoing family ties.
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What about immigrants to this country?
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On the other side of the ledger, the number of immigrants started to climb as the pandemic eased, peaking at over 145K in the first quarter of 2023. But Ottawa's new, lower targets for permanent immigration have had a predictable impact.
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The federal government sets out annual plans — looking three years out. In 2022, for example, Canada said it wanted to bring in 465,000 permanent residents in 2023, 485,000 in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. In late 2024, however, the Trudeau government drastically reduced these targets with the aim of to achieving 'well-managed, sustainable growth and economic prosperity for the long term.'
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The target for 2025 was reduced to 395,000 newcomers and 380,000 for 2026.
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Canada admitted 104,256 immigrants in the first quarter of 2025. That's the smallest number admitted during a first quarter in four years.
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Every province and territory except for Newfoundland and Labrador, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut admitted fewer immigrants in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same quarter in 2024.
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What about residents who come to study or work temporarily?
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As of April 1, there were 2,959,825 non-permanent residents in Canada, accounting for 7.1 per cent of the total population. StatCan includes residents with work or study permits in this category, as well as people who have claimed refugee status.
The decrease is unusual for this time of year, says StatCan. Typically, there is an increase in the first quarter. Further, this number is down from a peak of 7.4 per cent on October 1, 2024.
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The largest decrease in non-permanent residents came from people with only a study permit (down 53,669). Most of it occurred in Ontario (down 30,160) and British Columbia (down 11,742).
The number of people who only have a work permit remained high (1,453,481).
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However, the number of asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups increased for the 13th consecutive quarter, reaching a record high of 470,029 as of April 1.
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What has the impact of these shifts been on Canada's population?
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These trends have contributed to the smallest quarterly growth in Canada since the third quarter of 2020. In the first quarter of 2025, the population of Canada increased by just 20,107 people to a total of 41,548,787.
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Notably, it was the second-slowest quarterly growth rate in Canada since comparable records began (1946). StatCan says it was also the sixth consecutive quarter of slower population growth, driven by the federal government lowering temporary and permanent immigration.
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However, despite the federal reductions, international migration still accounted for the entire increase in population in the first quarter of 2025. Natural population growth is declining. Births in Canada have been outnumbered by deaths, resulting in an overall decrease of 5,628 as of the first quarter of the year.
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'This is consistent with an aging population, a decreasing fertility rate and the higher numbers of deaths that typically occur during the winter months,' says the StatCan analysis that accompanied the quarterly data release.
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Any natural increase 'has been negative in every first quarter since 2022.'
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What has the population impact been across the country?
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The population dropped slightly in Newfoundland and Labrador (115), Quebec (1,013), Ontario (5,664), British Columbia (2,357) and Yukon (15) during the first quarter of 2025.
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While these are small decreases compared to the size of those provinces, they were the largest quarterly population losses for both Ontario and British Columbia since comparable records began to be published in 1951. Since then, the populations of those provinces decreased only three times.
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Some areas of the country increased their numbers slightly: Prince Edward Island (749), the Northwest Territories (168) and Nunavut (158). Alberta's population did the best, with an increase of 20,562.
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