Republicans plan to use threat of third Trump impeachment as key issue to boost their standing in midterm races
'We know what the stakes are in the midterm elections,' John McLaughlin, a Trump pollster, told NBC News. 'If we don't succeed, Democrats will begin persecuting President Trump again. They would go for impeachment.'
Right now, Republicans hold an eight-seat advantage in the House, walling the president off from a third impeachment, but that could change if the Democrats surge in 2026, as the president's party typically suffers during midterm elections.
Still, according to Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., who led the party's second impeachment against Trump over the January 6 insurrection, the Democrats themselves plan to focus more on what they see as the president's 'terrible agenda.'
'We've already impeached him twice,' Raskin told NBC. 'So obviously that's not a complete solution, given that he is able to beat the two-thirds constitutional spread. So I don't think anybody thinks that's going to be the utopian solution to our problems.'
Both House impeachments — first for an alleged offer of quid pro quo with Ukraine to go after Joe Biden, then for the Capitol riot — did not have enough votes to secure convictions in the Senate.
During the second Trump administration, the president has continued to face attempts to initiate new impeachment trials, including from Michigan Democrat Shri Thanedar in the spring and a June effort over the administration's Iran strikes, though none of these have come to pass.
Impeachments may not be coming any time soon, but Republicans face a variety of other risks to their three-party majority control of the federal government.
The president's job approval rating has dipped to 37 percent, according to Gallup, the lowest of this term and just above Trump's lowest-ever approval rating, driven by hemorrhaging support from independent voters. A majority of Americans also oppose his signature One Big, Beautiful Bill, which contains a series of tax cuts and restrictions on social programs like Medicaid.
The party also continues to face fallout and internal division over the White House's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files scandal, in which Trump and his allies campaigned on releasing materials related to the notorious financier's sexual misconduct, only to backtrack as more information concerning Epstein and Trump's long-time friendship came to light.
The president has lashed out at his own base for seeking information about the scandal, which he calls a Democratic 'hoax,' while House Speaker Mike Johnson effectively ended business in the lower house until after its upcoming summer recess to avoid Democratic amendments calling for the release of the files.
Meanwhile, former White House ally (and GOP mega-donor) Elon Musk has vowed to form his own political party, in the face of disagreements with the Trump administration over spending policy and the Epstein saga.
There could also be blowback to economic conditions if the Trump administration's repeatedly delayed double-digit tariffs take full effect on major U.S. trading partners.
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