Fundies reveal biggest takeaways from Macquarie Conference
The renewed optimism was sparked by this week's Macquarie Australia Conference, where analysts were bracing for a wave of earnings downgrades as the event provided companies with the first opportunity to reveal the impact of Trump's sweeping tariffs.
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The Advertiser
an hour ago
- The Advertiser
World stocks slip as US tariff threats heat up
World shares are ticking lower, with European shares slipping as the latest salvo of threats in the US President Donald Trump's tariff wars keep investors on edge. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was last down 0.3 per cent in morning trade on Monday. Other regional indices also declined, barring the UK's FTSE 100, which was up 0.4 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of world shares dipped 0.1 per cent. Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30 per cent tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, even as they are locked in long negotiations. The EU said it would extend a suspension of countermeasures to US tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, though Germany's finance minister called for firm action if the levies went ahead. German 10-year government bond yields briefly hit their highest since early April on Monday after settling back to 4.63 per cent. Yields move inversely to price. "To use the biggest cliche in the book, it continues to be a rollercoaster ride for all of us following the trade story, even if the market has increasingly overcome its queasiness and ensured it has been well stocked up on motion sickness tablets," said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a note to clients. A rise in Japanese government bond yields also added to upward pressure on borrowing costs elsewhere, said Jens Peter Soerensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank. Japanese bond yields surged as concerns grew that an upcoming election could pave the way for increased fiscal spending. Chinese blue chips closed 0.1 per cent higher as data showed annual export growth topped forecasts at 5.8 per cent in June, even as exports to the US fell almost 10 per cent. Retail sales figures, industrial output and gross domestic product are due Tuesday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.4 per cent. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major banks leading the pack on Tuesday. In bond markets, Treasuries got a very marginal safety bid and 10-year yields held at 4.41 per cent. US consumer prices data for June are due on Tuesday and could finally start to show early upward pressure from tariffs, though retailers still have pre-levy inventory to draw on and some companies are absorbing the costs into margins. The impact on supply chain costs could show in producer price and import price figures this week, while a reading on retail sales will indicate how consumers are faring. Among currencies, the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $US1.1684, edging away from its recent four-year top of $US1.1830. The dollar lost 0.1 per cent on the yen to 147.29 while the dollar index was little changed about 97.89. Bitcoin crossed the $US120,000 level for the first time to reach a top around $US123,153. Gold picked up a modest safe-haven bid and rose 0.1 per cent to $US3,359 an ounce. Oil prices rose more than one per cent on speculation Trump could announce stiffer sanctions on Russia later on Monday, including levies on major customers buying Russian oil. Brent jumped 67 cents to $US71.03 a barrel, while US crude added 70 cents to $US69.15 per barrel. World shares are ticking lower, with European shares slipping as the latest salvo of threats in the US President Donald Trump's tariff wars keep investors on edge. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was last down 0.3 per cent in morning trade on Monday. Other regional indices also declined, barring the UK's FTSE 100, which was up 0.4 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of world shares dipped 0.1 per cent. Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30 per cent tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, even as they are locked in long negotiations. The EU said it would extend a suspension of countermeasures to US tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, though Germany's finance minister called for firm action if the levies went ahead. German 10-year government bond yields briefly hit their highest since early April on Monday after settling back to 4.63 per cent. Yields move inversely to price. "To use the biggest cliche in the book, it continues to be a rollercoaster ride for all of us following the trade story, even if the market has increasingly overcome its queasiness and ensured it has been well stocked up on motion sickness tablets," said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a note to clients. A rise in Japanese government bond yields also added to upward pressure on borrowing costs elsewhere, said Jens Peter Soerensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank. Japanese bond yields surged as concerns grew that an upcoming election could pave the way for increased fiscal spending. Chinese blue chips closed 0.1 per cent higher as data showed annual export growth topped forecasts at 5.8 per cent in June, even as exports to the US fell almost 10 per cent. Retail sales figures, industrial output and gross domestic product are due Tuesday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.4 per cent. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major banks leading the pack on Tuesday. In bond markets, Treasuries got a very marginal safety bid and 10-year yields held at 4.41 per cent. US consumer prices data for June are due on Tuesday and could finally start to show early upward pressure from tariffs, though retailers still have pre-levy inventory to draw on and some companies are absorbing the costs into margins. The impact on supply chain costs could show in producer price and import price figures this week, while a reading on retail sales will indicate how consumers are faring. Among currencies, the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $US1.1684, edging away from its recent four-year top of $US1.1830. The dollar lost 0.1 per cent on the yen to 147.29 while the dollar index was little changed about 97.89. Bitcoin crossed the $US120,000 level for the first time to reach a top around $US123,153. Gold picked up a modest safe-haven bid and rose 0.1 per cent to $US3,359 an ounce. Oil prices rose more than one per cent on speculation Trump could announce stiffer sanctions on Russia later on Monday, including levies on major customers buying Russian oil. Brent jumped 67 cents to $US71.03 a barrel, while US crude added 70 cents to $US69.15 per barrel. World shares are ticking lower, with European shares slipping as the latest salvo of threats in the US President Donald Trump's tariff wars keep investors on edge. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was last down 0.3 per cent in morning trade on Monday. Other regional indices also declined, barring the UK's FTSE 100, which was up 0.4 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of world shares dipped 0.1 per cent. Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30 per cent tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, even as they are locked in long negotiations. The EU said it would extend a suspension of countermeasures to US tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, though Germany's finance minister called for firm action if the levies went ahead. German 10-year government bond yields briefly hit their highest since early April on Monday after settling back to 4.63 per cent. Yields move inversely to price. "To use the biggest cliche in the book, it continues to be a rollercoaster ride for all of us following the trade story, even if the market has increasingly overcome its queasiness and ensured it has been well stocked up on motion sickness tablets," said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a note to clients. A rise in Japanese government bond yields also added to upward pressure on borrowing costs elsewhere, said Jens Peter Soerensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank. Japanese bond yields surged as concerns grew that an upcoming election could pave the way for increased fiscal spending. Chinese blue chips closed 0.1 per cent higher as data showed annual export growth topped forecasts at 5.8 per cent in June, even as exports to the US fell almost 10 per cent. Retail sales figures, industrial output and gross domestic product are due Tuesday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.4 per cent. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major banks leading the pack on Tuesday. In bond markets, Treasuries got a very marginal safety bid and 10-year yields held at 4.41 per cent. US consumer prices data for June are due on Tuesday and could finally start to show early upward pressure from tariffs, though retailers still have pre-levy inventory to draw on and some companies are absorbing the costs into margins. The impact on supply chain costs could show in producer price and import price figures this week, while a reading on retail sales will indicate how consumers are faring. Among currencies, the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $US1.1684, edging away from its recent four-year top of $US1.1830. The dollar lost 0.1 per cent on the yen to 147.29 while the dollar index was little changed about 97.89. Bitcoin crossed the $US120,000 level for the first time to reach a top around $US123,153. Gold picked up a modest safe-haven bid and rose 0.1 per cent to $US3,359 an ounce. Oil prices rose more than one per cent on speculation Trump could announce stiffer sanctions on Russia later on Monday, including levies on major customers buying Russian oil. Brent jumped 67 cents to $US71.03 a barrel, while US crude added 70 cents to $US69.15 per barrel. World shares are ticking lower, with European shares slipping as the latest salvo of threats in the US President Donald Trump's tariff wars keep investors on edge. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was last down 0.3 per cent in morning trade on Monday. Other regional indices also declined, barring the UK's FTSE 100, which was up 0.4 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of world shares dipped 0.1 per cent. Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30 per cent tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, even as they are locked in long negotiations. The EU said it would extend a suspension of countermeasures to US tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, though Germany's finance minister called for firm action if the levies went ahead. German 10-year government bond yields briefly hit their highest since early April on Monday after settling back to 4.63 per cent. Yields move inversely to price. "To use the biggest cliche in the book, it continues to be a rollercoaster ride for all of us following the trade story, even if the market has increasingly overcome its queasiness and ensured it has been well stocked up on motion sickness tablets," said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a note to clients. A rise in Japanese government bond yields also added to upward pressure on borrowing costs elsewhere, said Jens Peter Soerensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank. Japanese bond yields surged as concerns grew that an upcoming election could pave the way for increased fiscal spending. Chinese blue chips closed 0.1 per cent higher as data showed annual export growth topped forecasts at 5.8 per cent in June, even as exports to the US fell almost 10 per cent. Retail sales figures, industrial output and gross domestic product are due Tuesday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.4 per cent. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major banks leading the pack on Tuesday. In bond markets, Treasuries got a very marginal safety bid and 10-year yields held at 4.41 per cent. US consumer prices data for June are due on Tuesday and could finally start to show early upward pressure from tariffs, though retailers still have pre-levy inventory to draw on and some companies are absorbing the costs into margins. The impact on supply chain costs could show in producer price and import price figures this week, while a reading on retail sales will indicate how consumers are faring. Among currencies, the euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $US1.1684, edging away from its recent four-year top of $US1.1830. The dollar lost 0.1 per cent on the yen to 147.29 while the dollar index was little changed about 97.89. Bitcoin crossed the $US120,000 level for the first time to reach a top around $US123,153. Gold picked up a modest safe-haven bid and rose 0.1 per cent to $US3,359 an ounce. Oil prices rose more than one per cent on speculation Trump could announce stiffer sanctions on Russia later on Monday, including levies on major customers buying Russian oil. Brent jumped 67 cents to $US71.03 a barrel, while US crude added 70 cents to $US69.15 per barrel.
Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Trump wants Europe to surrender to him
It will take years before their commitments to increase their own defence spending might wean them off their reliance on the US for protection from an aggressively expansionist Russia. However, with Trump also announcing at the weekend that he is considering raising the baseline tariff rate to 15 to 20 per cent, they have to take his threat of a 30 per cent tariff – and additional tariffs to match any retaliatory measures they might take – seriously. Trump appears impatient that he hasn't delivered the '90 deals in 90 days' the administration boasted it would deliver, let alone the 200 deals he once said were virtually done. He's also been boosted by the successful passage through Congress of his One Big Beautiful Bill Act and by the buoyancy of US financial markets, which have rebounded from their sell-offs in April, when Trump first unveiled his 'reciprocal' tariffs. In April, he deferred imposition of the tariffs until July (and subsequently deferred them again until next month) because the bond market was 'getting a little queasy.' Now markets have settled, with the sharemarket posting record highs. That may be because investors don't believe he will follow through with the reciprocal tariffs he has threatened – the 'Trump Always Chickens Out' or TACO trade – or because any ill effects from tariffs, most notably increased inflation, have yet to show up in economic data. Loading No one, including Trump himself, it seems, knows what he might post next on his Truth Social, so markets are behaving as if nothing has happened until something actually happens. August 1 – the new deadline for his reciprocal tariffs – could be a wake-up moment for markets. The apparent complacency in markets, in the meantime, is encouraging Trump to be more aggressive and more impatient. There is a risk that, rather than heed, as he has until now, the urgings of calmer voices in his cabinet to negotiate deals, he will follow his personal preference and unilaterally present trade partners with 'take it or leave it' ultimatums. While the EU still appears to believe that Trump's latest threat is a negotiating ploy, they have prepared countermeasures in case it isn't. The EU had drawn up a list of US exports that it could target in response to the baseline tariff and the sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminium and autos, covering about €21 billion ($37 billion) of US exports. Items on that list included chicken, motorcycles and clothing. It has another list, targeting another €72 billion of products, ranging from aircraft to alcohol, with which it could respond to Trump's reciprocal tariffs. It also has what it calls its 'anti-coercion instrument,' or actions that could hit the trade in services, although it is reluctant to deploy that instrument, which it devised in response to a deluge of cheap imports from China. The total trade between the US and EU is worth about $US1 trillion ($1.5 trillion), with the EU enjoying a trade surplus in goods of $US235 billion, but a trade deficit in services of about $US75 billion. The EU, in its negotiations with the US, had sought exemptions from Trump's tariffs for key sectors, such as aircraft and alcohol, in exchange for a promise to buy more US goods, particularly weapons and LNG, that would narrow the US goods trade deficit. Von der Leyen said on Saturday that the EU was ready to continue negotiating but prepared to consider retaliation. Imposing 30 per cent tariffs on EU exports would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, harming businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic, she said. The dilemma for the EU is that Trump's view of its non-tariff policies and trade barriers includes its value-added tax and its regulation of digital activity to protect competition and consumers. No nation state – or, in the EU's case, collection of 27 nation states – would surrender its sovereignty and allow Trump to dictate its domestic policy settings. Having seen what Trump has done to Brazil, threatening a 50 per cent tariff rate in response to unfair trade barriers (even though the US has a trade surplus with Brazil) and its trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro – an enthusiastic Trump supporter – for allegedly plotting a coup, the EU would be conscious of the risk that Trump's demands may not be confined to its goods trade. The potential for a trade confrontation is, therefore, quite significant. The EU will have to decide whether it should roll over and accede to Trump's demands, damaging its industries and the sovereignty of its states. Alternatively, it could emulate China and allow the confrontation to escalate to the point where it threatens a trade embargo, which would, as China's tot-for-tat tariffs did, scare the bejesus out of financial market participants and unnerve the White House. Loading Trump's indiscriminate threats of trade sanctions against America's friends and foes alike have ignited a scramble by the EU and others to secure new markets. There is potential for a new trading bloc, spanning Europe, the non-Chinese Asia Pacific and Latin America, to emerge. Trump and much of his hand-picked cabinet are protectionists and isolationists. At the conclusion of his trade wars on everyone, if much of the rest of the world decides to trade freely among themselves, he might get what he wished for.
Perth Now
3 hours ago
- Perth Now
ASX slips on latest Trump tariff
Cautious investors sold down the local market as Aussie investors digested the latest tariffs announcement from US President Donald Trump. The ASX200 closed slightly down on Monday, losing 9.70 points or 0.11 per cent to 8,570.40, as the seesawing market swung between gains and losses throughout the day's trading. The broader All Ordinaries also finished in the red, losing 5 points or 0.06 per cent to finish Monday's trading at 8,815.30. The Australian dollar retreated slightly from an eight-month high and is currently buying 65.61 US cents. On a mixed day, only four of the 11 sectors finished higher, led by the energy stocks and major miners. Shares in BHP finished up 0.94 per cent to $39.73, while Rio Tinto gained 0.58 per cent to $111.74. US President Donald Trump tariff policy is starting to come into effect. Carlos Barria / NewsWire POOL Credit: NewsWire Fortescue Metals bucked the trend and fell 0.47 per cent to $16.90. It was also a mixed day for the big four banks. CBA shares slipped 0.39 per cent to $178.72, Westpac dropped 0.74 per cent to $33.56 and ANZ slumped 0.82 per cent to $30.08. NAB was the outlier, eking out a small gain, up 0.13 per cent to $39.66. Monday's trading came after President Trump over the weekend confirmed a 30 per cent tariff on goods from the European Union and Mexico which will start from August 1. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said this was an extension of the letters sent on July 9. 'The 'take it or leave it' tariff rates on these 12 countries will be effective from August 1, 2025,' Mr Sycamore said. 'While we can only guess which countries will receive a letter, it has been confirmed that Canada has been explicitly excluded from the list due to its USMCA protections, relatively low tariffs on US goods, and strategic importance as a North American partner.' Gold miners rose as investors jumped into safe haven assets. NewsWire / Max Mason-Hubers Credit: News Corp Australia Safe havens – including gold and Bitcoin – jumped on the news. Northern Star Resources jumped 1.72 per cent to $16.53, Evolution Mining gained 1.88 per cent to $7.58 and Newmont Corporation finished 1.66 per cent higher to $92.01. Bitcoin has surged past $US120,000 ($182,000) for the first time, marking yet another record in what's shaping up to be a monumental rise. eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert said the price jumped on the back of governments continuing with big spending budgets. 'Central banks keep running expansive monetary policies and global money supply keeps rising,' Mr Gilbert said. 'In that environment, an asset with fixed, decentralised supply cements itself as an alternative store of value.' In company news, DroneShield continues its march higher over recent weeks after telling the ASX it will spend $13m in R&D and manufacturing to expand its Sydney based operations. The company says the money will triple the size of the current Sydney based facility as it looks to expand its manufacturing capacity to $2.6bn by the end of 2026. The expansion follows a $61.6m contact announcement back in June, its biggest ever order. Shares jumped 16.97 per cent to $3.24 on the announcement. Specialty fashion group City Chic shares slipped 1.16 per cent to $0.085 after the business issued an unaudited trading update to 29 June 2025 showing earnings before interest depreciation and amortisation will come in at between $6 to $6.5m, following a financial year 2024 loss of $8.4m.
