Deterministic AI's Role In Public Sector Cloud Security

Forbes

2 days ago

Matthew Sweeney, CPO and cofounder, Gomboc AI.
Public sector organizations are under relentless pressure to modernize and digitize.
With citizens demanding better services and governments facing ever-evolving cyber threats, deploying public infrastructure in the cloud is no longer optional—it's mission-critical. Yet, this transition is fraught with risks: misconfigurations, compliance gaps and the constant specter of data breaches.
Many public sector organizations are investigating AI to mitigate these threats. Let's look at the role AI can play in cloud security, and what businesses should consider as they move forward with this emerging technology.
The High Stakes Of Public Infrastructure
When a government agency migrates sensitive citizen data or essential services to the cloud, the margin for error shrinks considerably. A single misstep—whether due to a misconfigured IAM policy or an unencrypted database—can compromise personal information or destabilize critical infrastructure.
Unlike commercial environments, public agencies operate under unique constraints: long procurement cycles, budget limitations and strict regulatory oversight. At the same time, the complexity of public cloud deployments is accelerating. Research shows that:
• 81% of organizations experienced at least one cloud security incident in 2022.
• Public sector agencies have seen a surge in cloud-based attacks in recent years.
• 78% of organizations use two or more cloud providers, and 54% manage hybrid cloud environments.
• More cloud data breaches are caused by misconfigurations or human error than any other threat, rather than by vulnerabilities in the software itself.
• In fact, as for 2020, 88% of government agencies viewed cloud misconfiguration as a top security threat.
These trends point to a larger truth: The biggest risk to cloud infrastructure is not the cloud itself, but how it's configured and managed.
The Generative AI Paradox
Generative AI is rapidly being adopted to help automate infrastructure provisioning and remediation tasks. These tools can accelerate code generation, documentation and even basic troubleshooting.
However, their probabilistic nature introduces risk. Generative models often synthesize outputs based on patterns, not guarantees. As a result, they may generate infrastructure code that appears valid but fails to meet organizational policies, introduces vulnerabilities or lacks auditability.
A study from researchers at the University of Oslo, Norway, analyzed AI-generated applications and found frequent instances of insecure defaults, including improperly configured file uploads and authentication flaws. Similarly, Apple's 2024 paper on multimodal LLM reasoning cautions that current generative models perform inconsistently on complex tasks and should not be relied on for critical reasoning or high-stakes decision making.
That said, generative AI still holds value. For public sector use cases that involve templating, writing documentation or automating routine scripts in controlled environments, these tools can save time. To assess fit, teams should ask:
• What level of accuracy and compliance is required for this task?
• Is there a review or validation mechanism in place post-generation?
• Would an inconsistent or partially correct output introduce risk?
Understanding Deterministic AI
Deterministic AI provides an alternative to probabilistic, generative approaches. Rather than predicting outcomes based on large-scale language models, deterministic systems follow predefined rules, policy engines and structured logic to produce consistent and auditable outputs.
Deterministic AI platforms often integrate with CI/CD pipelines, scanning Infrastructure as Code (IaC) such as Terraform or CloudFormation. When an issue, such as an insecure storage configuration or a missing encryption flag, is detected, the system can automatically propose or generate a fix.
Unlike generative tools, the fix is policy-aligned, traceable and tailored to the organization's specific security or compliance requirements.
Third-party analysts are beginning to recognize the value of this approach. Gartner, for instance, has introduced 'AI Assistants for Infrastructure as Code' in multiple Hype Cycle reports (subscription required), signaling growing industry validation for tools that emphasize accuracy, policy enforcement and developer trust over broad generalization.
Implementation Considerations
Deterministic AI is not a plug-and-play solution; it requires thoughtful implementation. Organizations unfamiliar with this approach, especially those accustomed to generative tooling, may face a learning curve. Some of the key challenges and considerations include:
• Policy Definition: Teams must clearly define guardrails, compliance standards and remediation actions. Without this foundation, deterministic tools cannot deliver value.
• Integration Overlap: Some public sector environments already rely on a patchwork of legacy scanners or manual review systems. Integrating deterministic tooling into CI/CD workflows may require refactoring existing processes.
• Scope Limitation: Deterministic AI excels in domains with clear policy logic, such as infrastructure security or access control. It is not ideal for creative or ambiguous tasks where flexibility and interpretation are required.
Before implementing, technical leaders should:
1. Conduct a readiness assessment to identify critical infrastructure areas with high misconfiguration risk.
2. Map existing policies and controls to determine where automation is safe and enforceable.
3. Pilot the tool in a low-risk environment to refine policies and observe results.
Conclusion
For public sector agencies, where the stakes are high and accountability is non-negotiable, deterministic AI offers a compelling path forward.
By understanding the strengths and limitations of both generative and deterministic approaches, public sector leaders can make informed decisions that enhance resilience, reduce human error and accelerate modernization with confidence.
Forbes Technology Council is an invitation-only community for world-class CIOs, CTOs and technology executives. Do I qualify?