Al Futtaim Retail to Buy $666 Million Stake in Cenomi Retail
The United Arab Emirates-based firm plans to purchase 49.95% of the share capital of Cenomi Retail from shareholders including Saudi FAS Holding Company and FAS Real Estate Company, according to a statement on Sunday.
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A Look At The Fair Value Of PHSC plc (LON:PHSC)
Key Insights The projected fair value for PHSC is UK£0.11 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity PHSC's UK£0.12 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate The average discount for PHSC's competitorsis currently 59% Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of PHSC plc (LON:PHSC) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. Is PHSC Fairly Valued? We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Levered FCF (£, Millions) UK£71.6k UK£61.9k UK£56.6k UK£53.6k UK£52.0k UK£51.3k UK£51.2k UK£51.5k UK£52.2k UK£53.0k Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -20.36% Est @ -13.49% Est @ -8.68% Est @ -5.32% Est @ -2.96% Est @ -1.31% Est @ -0.15% Est @ 0.65% Est @ 1.22% Est @ 1.62% Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 6.6% UK£0.07 UK£0.05 UK£0.05 UK£0.04 UK£0.04 UK£0.03 UK£0.03 UK£0.03 UK£0.03 UK£0.03 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£403k We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.6%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£53k× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (6.6%– 2.5%) = UK£1.3m Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£1.3m÷ ( 1 + 6.6%)10= UK£696k The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£1.1m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£0.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. The Assumptions We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at PHSC as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for PHSC SWOT Analysis for PHSC Strength Currently debt free. Weakness Current share price is above our estimate of fair value. Opportunity Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine PHSC's earnings prospects. Threat No apparent threats visible for PHSC. Next Steps: Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For PHSC, there are three additional factors you should assess: Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with PHSC (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) . Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
