What economists say about Argentina's FX reforms and IMF deal
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina's central bank has announced a major overhaul to the country's exchange rate policy, unleashing the peso and years-long controls on the currency ahead of an expected $20 billion International Monetary Fund deal.
The central bank announced that it will undo a fixed currency peg from Monday, letting the peso freely fluctuate within a moving band.
Here is what economists have to say about the policy changes and the IMF loan program, the country's 23rd in a long and complex history between Argentina and the lender.
CLAUDIO LOSER, EX-IMF WESTERN HEMISPHERE DIRECTOR
"I must say I am surprised by the amount of money at Argentina's disposition starting next week, approximately $20 billion."
"Eliminating the CEPO (currency controls) is important, though it does not mean everyone can take out their money. What's more important is that the dollar will fluctuate, there will be fluctuation. People will be very nervous."
RICARDO DELGADO, ECONOMIST
"This is a devaluation, different from what the government would have wanted ahead of the elections... Lifting the CEPO is striking at this time of global volatility."
MARTIN REDRADO, ECONOMIST AND FORMER CENTRAL BANK HEAD
"There will be a limit to what the central bank will be able to invest in the upper part of the band. The IMF will surely set a limit that we may or may not be aware of, but that the market will put to the test."
AGUSTIN ETCHEBARNE, HEAD OF FREEDOM AND PROGRESS FOUNDATION
"Uncertainty will diminish and that's a positive thing."
"This will help to strengthen the central bank... That is good news and it will allow inflation to continue decreasing in the mid-term to much lower levels than we currently have."
JAIME REUSCHE, MOODY'S VP - SENIOR CREDIT OFFICER
"The $20 billion agreement with the IMF is an important anchor that will help Argentina prepare for the next phase of its adjustment, which involves the elimination of the currency controls and capital controls."
"Argentina's credit outlook remains positive, although navigating the current global environment in the context of the planned macroeconomic adjustment will be more challenging for the authorities."
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
US manufacturing extends slump; factory employment lowest in 5 years
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month in July and factory employment dropped to the lowest level in five years amid tariffs that have raised prices of imported raw materials. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Friday that its manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 last month from 49.0 in June. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI edging up to 49.5. The weak PMI reading is consistent with economists' expectations for a slowdown in activity in the third quarter as the effects of the import duties become more apparent. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index rose to 47.1 from 46.4 in June but this was still a contraction for the sixth consecutive month. Its production measure increased to 51.4 from 50.3 in the prior month. Despite the rise in production, factories continued to shed jobs. The survey's measure of manufacturing employment decreased to 43.4, the lowest level since July 2020, from 45.0 in June. The ISM has noted an "acceleration of headcount reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand." Delivery times improved last month, helping to slow the pace of increase for input prices. The ISM survey's supplier deliveries index dropped to 49.3 from 54.2 in June. Its gauge of prices paid by factories for inputs declined to a still-high 64.8 last month from 69.7 in June. Government data on Thursday showed goods prices increased in June by the most in five months, with economists saying this was the start of a tariff-driven rise in goods inflation that they expected to persist through the second half of the year. (Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama ) Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
US construction spending extends decline in June
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. construction spending dropped further in June amid a sharp decline in outlays on single-family housing projects because of higher mortgage rates and rising inventory. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Friday that construction spending fell 0.4% after a revised 0.4% decrease in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending unchanged after a previously reported 0.3% drop in May. Spending fell 2.9% on a year-over-year basis in June. Spending on private construction projects slipped 0.5%. Investment in residential construction decreased 0.7%, with outlays on new single-family housing projects plunging 1.8%. Government data this week showed residential investment contracted in the second quarter at its fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022. Mortgage rates have remained elevated as tariffs on imported goods have raised economic uncertainty, prompting the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate-cutting cycle. New housing inventory is at levels last seen in late 2007. Outlays on multi-family housing units were unchanged in June. Investment in private non-residential structures like offices and factories fell 0.3%. Spending on nonresidential structures contracted in the April-June quarter for the second straight quarter. Spending on public construction projects edged up 0.1%. State and local government construction spending increased 0.5%, while outlays on federal government projects dropped 4.4%.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Greek government cautious on new EU-US trade deal reached with Trump
The Greek government appears hesitant and cautious in commenting on the EU-US trade deal on tariffs reached between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump. Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, speaking in the parliament, outlined the government's thoughts on this burning issue. He noted that it puts an end to months of uncertainty following Trump's election and the "back and forth" with the tariffs, and that is a positive thing. He stressed, however, that the government is studying the agreement to see how it can better manage the problems that will arise in areas of Greece's commercial interest. "The agreement puts an end to months of uncertainty regarding the status of perhaps the most important bilateral trade relationship in the global economy. It secures transatlantic unity and prevents a trade war with a chain of negative effects on international trade and on international distribution and production chains," Pierrakakis outlined. "The agreement also strengthens the energy security of the European economy for the foreseeable future. From this perspective, the development is positive." "As you know, as a matter of principle, Greece supports free trade based on stable rules. The agreement provides for the application of tariffs of 15% on European exports to the US, with some asterisks," Pierrakakis continued. "Based on the principled position I have described to you, the Greek government would like a lower tariff rate, ideally zero for all transatlantic trade flows. On the other hand, the announced tariff rate is lower than what was scheduled to be applied on 1 August." "The government is closely following the relevant consultations and, to the extent that the framework of the agreement will allow, possibilities will be explored that could help to better address issues related to products of particular interest to our country." Related US-EU trade deal wards off tariff escalation but threatens growth Von der Leyen and Trump strike EU-US trade deal with 15% tariff for the bloc 'Ending intra-European tariffs' The Greek finance minister also raised another issue, which concerns Europe itself. He said there are still intra-EU barriers that act as tariffs and should be eliminated. "If we really want a strong, competitive and single European economy, we have to tear down the last invisible walls that still prevent the free movement of goods and services within the Union," Pierrakakis said. "It is not possible that, decades after the Single Market was established, there are still regulatory or administrative barriers that in practice act as intra-European 'tariffs'." "In manufacturing there are equivalent internal tariffs of 45% and in services the equivalent is 110%. This is what the International Monetary Fund has documented, and Mario Draghi has mentioned it in his column," he explained. "So, what needs to be conquered and achieved is to remove the barriers, especially between the European economies. And of course we as a country should also be able to systematically address more and more markets, such as India and the Middle Eastern markets, for our exports." 'A defining development' The president of the Hellenic Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Yannis Bratakos noted that the agreement is a defining development for global trade as things are now more predictable. On the other hand, he stressed that it creates serious challenges for Greek and European production. "The recent agreement between the United States and the European Union, which includes a new tariff framework, is a decisive development for transatlantic cooperation and the global economy," Bratakos said. "The new tariff framework resulting from the agreement creates conditions of greater predictability, but at the same time incorporates challenges for specific sectors of European production." Related Oil prices rise on EU-US trade deal and Trump comments on Ukraine Bratakos continued: "The exemption of strategic sectors, such as aeronautics, generic medicines, chemicals and certain agricultural goods, is a positive development." "However, the imposition of uniform tariffs on high-value-added products - including pharmaceutical, industrial and agri-food exports - may hurt the competitiveness of companies that support critical shares of the Greek economy." "Particular attention is needed to protect iconic Greek products, such as olive oil, feta and wines, which risk being burdened by the new regime. In this environment, the need for constant monitoring of developments and effective participation in the shaping of European decisions becomes crucial," Bratakos explained. "At the same time, the strengthening of energy cooperation with the US, through increased imports of LNG and investment in infrastructure, opens up new opportunities for Greece, especially in the fields of logistics, shipbuilding and regional energy interconnection." "The Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry calls on the Greek government to ensure, within the framework of the European institutions, that the final implementation of the agreement will not disrupt the competitiveness of Greek exports and will not increase the dependence of specific sectors on third markets." "It is time for our country to invest concretely and more actively in interconnection with the US and at the same time to broaden its export prospects to alternative markets. The Hellenic Business Association (EBEA) will continue to support this national effort with informed interventions, services to its members and the continuous promotion of Greek entrepreneurship abroad". Related Educated but still unemployed: How does unemployment vary among university graduates across Europe? Spain's economy grows 0.7% as it continues to outshine eurozone peers Hopes of 'manageable' situation The port of Piraeus is a very large trade hub, the main seaport of Athens and plays a key role in the commercial and industrial traffic of Greece and Europe. "We want to believe that the agreement to impose tariffs at the 15% level is a manageable situation and we hope that it will not create losses in US-EU bilateral trade," President of the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Vassilis Korkidis said. "In international trade, any agreement is always better than no agreement and the unilateral imposition of measures and countermeasures. The fact that it was agreed to impose a 15% general tariff on all products including cars is an element that restores balance to US-European trade relations and seems to satisfy both parties," Korkidis explained. "However, the tariffs on steel and aluminium remain at 50%, and it is not clear whether pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will eventually be subject to separate tariffs." "The agreement also provides that the EU will buy US military equipment and energy worth a total of $750 billion, while making significant investments of $600 billion." "The European side calls it an 'all-inclusive' trade agreement between the two major trading partners that brings stability. Regardless of the details and exceptions, it is significant that after months of negotiations, the agreement was reached less than a week before the August 1 deadline and the imposition of higher tariffs that would have had serious repercussions," he said. "We want to believe that the agreement to impose tariffs at the 15% level is a manageable situation and we hope that it will not create losses in US-EU bilateral trade," Korkidis concluded. Sign in to access your portfolio