Brazil tariff threatens U.S. coffee, orange juice supply chain
The Trump administration's decision to raise tariffs on all goods from Brazil to 50 percent—up from 10 percent—has sparked alarm among food importers. The steep duty, set to take effect August 1, is expected to disrupt the flow of Brazilian coffee to the U.S., which relies on Brazil as its top supplier.
"A tariff of this size would all but shut down that flow. Brazilian exporters won't absorb it. U.S. roasters can't," said senior coffee broker Michael Nuggent of MJ Nuggent & Co. "Bottom line: Brazil will sell its coffee elsewhere. The U.S. will buy coffee from someone else—Colombia, Honduras, Peru, Vietnam—but not at Brazil's volume or price."
Brazil shipped 8.14 million 60-kg bags of coffee to the U.S. in 2024, more than 30 percent higher than the previous year, according to exporter group Cecafe. About a third of the coffee consumed in the U.S. comes from Brazil, making the country a critical source for American roasters.
"I don't think it would be economically feasible to sell Brazilian coffee to the U.S. with the 50 percent tariff," said the Brazil head of a major global commodities firm, who declined to be named. "Let's see how this will evolve, but it would be very complicated."
Coffee producer Paulo Armelin, who sells directly to U.S. buyers, said talks for 2025 shipments were already strained due to a 70 percent spike in coffee prices last year. "We will have to look for other markets, maybe Germany," he said.
Orange juice could be the next product hit. More than half of what's consumed in the U.S. comes from Brazil, and domestic supply has plummeted due to hurricanes, frost, and citrus greening disease. A USDA report earlier this year forecast an 88-year low for the U.S. orange harvest and a record low in orange juice production for the 2024/25 season.
Other Brazilian goods—like sugar, wood, oil, and ethanol—may also be affected. Brazil is the world's second-largest producer of ethanol, though only a small portion is exported to the U.S.
Some domestic industries have welcomed the move. U.S. cattle producers, for example, have blamed Brazilian beef imports for shrinking the domestic industry. "We fully support this tariff on Brazil," said rancher group R-CALF USA. "We need to rebuild and reduce our nation's dependency on imported food."
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has indicated that some essential natural resources, including tropical fruits and spices not produced domestically, could be exempt from the new tariffs depending on negotiations.
The tariff announcement came alongside a letter from Donald Trump to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, criticising Brazil's stance on free elections, social media platforms, and digital trade practices involving U.S. firms.
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Global News
an hour ago
- Global News
As Trump hikes tariffs, B.C. jobs minister urges Carney to ‘negotiate hard'
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The Province
2 hours ago
- The Province
'You may not have the best hand': Former U.S. ambassador on Canada negotiating with Trump
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Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Much of Cohen's work involved navigating a landscape where bilateral co-operation could no longer be taken for granted and where he had to rebuild an alliance strained by trade disputes and fiery rhetoric. He's since returned to private life but still gives talks boosting the U.S.-Canada relationship. (This interview has been edited and condensed due to length.) David Cohen at a Canadian Club luncheon in Ottawa on Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2023. Photo by Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press Q: What were your proudest achievements as ambassador? A: 'I think the most important achievement was all of Mission Canada,' said Cohen. 'I set as a priority to rebuild, strengthen, and nurture the U.S.-Canada relationship, and I think we were largely successful in accomplishing that objective.' Cohen also noted helping to shift Canada's defence spending debate away from an almost exclusive focus on GDP percentages by arguing that commitments must be tied to existing security threats. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The public view often was, 'Why does Canada have to spend money on defence? We're surrounded by oceans on three sides, and by the United States on the fourth side.' But, Cohen said, 'that wasn't and isn't true. There are legitimate security threats, and Canada has a special responsibility and should have a special focus on continental defence.' He noted that under prime ministers Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney, the defence discussion has lately become centred on continental defence and the Arctic, which resonates more with Canadians. In fact, in December 2024, for the first time in over a decade, a majority of Canadians supported more defence spending, according to polling by the Angus Reid Institute . This, said Cohen, 'contributed to the additional defence spending that has occurred – and made it easier for (Trudeau and Carney) to make commitments about increasing the amount of investment that Canada would make toward defence, ultimately being able to sign off on the new five per cent threshold that was agreed to this year.' Essential reading for hockey fans who eat, sleep, Canucks, repeat. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Q: How well do you think Carney's team has been doing amid the trade war and negotiations? A: 'Prime Minister Carney and Canada are doing about as good a job as they can do in very difficult negotiations that are not always rationality-based … President Trump has not been all that crystal clear at times about exactly what it is he wants to accomplish and the underlying reasons for his positioning,' he said. Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump in Alberta for a G7 meeting, June 16, 2025. Photo by Gavin Young/Postmedia Cohen pointed to the White House's original 25 per cent tariff announcement and how it was premised largely on border and fentanyl issues, even though he said fentanyl imports from Canada were a very small part of the U.S. problem, especially compared to Mexico. He questioned the rationale for raising tariffs on Canadian goods from 25 to 35 per cent, given the tiny and shrinking amount of fentanyl coming from Canada. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. But Cohen also pointed out that 'Canada sometimes seems to overvalue its leverage, without fully recognizing the huge asymmetry in our almost trillion-dollar trade relationship. Three-quarters of Canada's exports go to the U.S., but only 17 per cent of U.S. exports go to Canada. Sometimes that gives Canada an overinflated view of (Canada's) leverage in negotiations.' 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Photo by Mark Schiefelbein / AP 'Actually putting concrete actions behind the commitments is something that Prime Minister Carney can do.' Cohen also noted that Canada's supply management issues, particularly with dairy, remain politically sensitive. 'There are a whole series and host of issues that are outstanding between the United States and Canada,' he added, 'and I think bringing any of them to the table with potential solutions that would be attractive to President Trump is a good strategy and a good tactic.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Q: Do you expect the current trade talks to bleed into the required review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement this coming year? Do you think Trump is looking to rip that up? A: 'I think it's inevitable these negotiations will bleed into the statutorily required review of USMCA,' Cohen said. And while the deal is a legacy of Trump's former U.S. trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, 'I think there's a part of Donald Trump that views it as a Donald Trump legacy too, since he was personally at the table and personally involved in closing the ultimate deal in 2018.' While Cohen doesn't think Trump is interested in ripping up the agreement, he acknowledged that there 'may need to be adjustments to it or revisiting of issues that Canada resisted during the original negotiation.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'I think it's almost inevitable that there will be certain elements of USMCA that will end up needing to be renegotiated as part of the review process.' But he expects it to survive because 'it has been such a good deal for both sides.' Q: Has there been long-term damage to the U.S.-Canada relationship from the last few months of trade tension, or is a reset feasible? A: Cohen noted the trust quotient between the U.S. and Canada plummeted from about 58 per cent during the Obama era to around 10 per cent in Trump's first term, before climbing back to the mid-50 per cent range under Biden. Today it's at 16 per cent. 'That history says it'll take work, it'll take effort from the United States perspective – we'll be dealing with a skeptical Canadian audience,' he said. 'But the U.S. market is too attractive (to not repair the relationship). The Canadian market is historically too much of an integral partner within that market.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'With a different government and a different approach, I think businesses on both sides of the border will probably be more ready to come back to the table and to engage in rebuilding the relationship. I think it's going to take more to convince the Canadian public that the United States really does care about Canada, although I think that is achievable.' 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He cited the example of softwood lumber tariffs, used by both Trump and Biden. 'It is just about indisputable that Canada, through its governmental policies by the federal government and by multiple provincial governments, unfairly favours Canadian lumber producers, creates preferential treatment for Canadian lumber producers, and discriminates against U.S. lumber producers.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'As a result, U.S. lumber producers are disadvantaged vis-à-vis Canadian lumber producers, and the mechanism for levelling that playing field is the countervailing softwood lumber tariffs.' Cohen also said tariffs can be helpful as leverage to negotiate things like boosted defence spending for NATO. 'I think that's a good thing,' he said. But he also criticized Trump's across-the-board high tariffs, like the 25 per cent tariff on potash, an essential farming input that's scarce in the U.S., as making no sense. Q: How is your successor, Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, doing in his job? A: 'I think he's in a very difficult position because (he's not a free agent but a personal representative of President Trump, but …) he's from a border state and has a longstanding understanding of the U.S.-Canada relationship and its importance from his Michigan roots,' Cohen said, noting how the former representative for Michigan's 2nd congressional district has gone out of his way to repeatedly talk about the importance of the Canada-U.S. relationship. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra. Photo by Justin Tang/The Canadian Press/File 'I think he's doing the best job he can to continue to send a message about the value that he personally and that the country puts on the U.S.-Canada relationship.' Q: Any final advice for Canadians about their relationship with the U.S.? A: 'There's almost an inferiority complex in Canada — lines like 'we're the stepchild' or 'not big enough to matter' — I always hated that,' he said, noting how Canada undervalues its importance as a friend, partner, and ally. 'There are things Canada can do that the United States cannot, because internationally, (the U.S.) is the 800-pound gorilla. Canada, though, gets to be in conversations in the global south where it can express views about promoting democracy and democratic values that, if promoted by the U.S., would fall on deaf ears. Canada can open the door and help achieve America's No. 1 foreign policy goal, which is the promotion of democracy and democratic values around the world. ' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Canada should never also never undervalue the role it has played in its actions, Cohen said. 'When the United States went into Afghanistan, Canada was the first country to join us. Americans should never forget what Canada did in the (Canadian) Caper, getting our last diplomats out of Iran safely (after the 1979 revolution), at great danger to the individual Canadian diplomats and to Canada on the international stage. 'On the one hand, be proud and recognize how incredibly important you are to this relationship … On the other hand, recognize that in tough negotiations, you may not have the best hand because of the asymmetry of the financial nature of the relationship.' 'That tension is one of the most interesting aspects of dealing with Canada.' National Post tmoran@ Read More Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our newsletters here. Local News Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Canucks Sports Crime
Winnipeg Free Press
2 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Who is Erika McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner fired by Trump?
WASHINGTON (AP) — The head of the agency that compiles the closely watched monthly jobs report usually toils in obscurity, but on Friday, the current holder of that job was loudly fired by the president of the United States. Erika McEntarfer, a longtime government employee, bore the brunt of President Donald Trump's unhappiness with Friday's jobs report, which showed that hiring had slowed in July and was much less in May and June that previously estimated. He accused her without evidence of manipulating the job numbers and noted she was an appointee of President Joe Biden. McEntarfer, a longtime government worker who had served as BLS head for a year and a half, did not immediately respond to a request for comment by The Associated Press. But her predecessor overseeing the jobs agency, former co-workers and associates have denounced the firing, warning about its repercussions and saying McEntarfer was nonpolitical in her role. Here's what to know about Erika McEntarfer: McEntarfer has a strong background on economics McEntarfer, whose research focuses on job loss, retirement, worker mobility, and wage rigidity, had previously worked at the Census Bureau's Center for Economic Studies, the Treasury Department's Office of Tax Policy and the White House Council of Economic Advisers in a nonpolitical role. She has a bachelor's degree in Social Science from Bard College and a doctoral degree in economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. She was confirmed as BLS head on a bipartisan vote McEntarfer was nominated in 2023 to serve as BLS head, and the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions recommended that her nomination go to the full Senate for a vote. She was confirmed as BLS commissioner in January 2024 on a bipartisan 86-8 Senate vote. Among the Republican senators who voted to confirm her included then-Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, who is now Trump's vice president, and then-Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who is now Trump's secretary of state. Before her confirmation hearing, a group called the Friends of the BLS, made up of former commissioners who served in both Democratic and Republican administrations, members of statistical associations and credentialed economists, said McEntarfer's background made her a great choice for the job. 'The many reasons to quickly confirm Dr. McEntarfer as the new BLS Commissioner all boil down to this: the agency, like the entire statistical system, is undergoing an intense, significant period of change and Dr. McEntarfer's wealth of research and statistical experience have equipped her to be the strong leader that BLS needs to meet these challenges,' Friends of the BLS wrote. Her former associates and co-workers decry her firing William Beach, who was appointed BLS commissioner in 2019 by Trump and served until 2023 during President Joe Biden's administration, called McEntarfer's firing 'groundless' and said in an X post that it 'sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau.' Former Labor Department chief economist Sarah J. Glynn, who received regular briefings from McEntarfer about BLS findings, said McEntarfer was generous with her time explaining what conclusions could or couldn't be reached from the data. If the data didn't support something an administration official was saying, McEntarfer would say so, Glynn said. She also never weighed in on how the administration should present or interpret the data, Glynn said — she would simply answer questions about the data. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. 'She had a sterling reputation as someone who is concerned about the accuracy of the data and not someone who puts a political spin on her work,' Glynn said. Heather Boushey, a senior research fellow at Harvard University, served with McEntarfer on the White House Council of Economic Advisers and said McEntarfer never talked politics at work. 'She showed up every day to focus on the best analysis and the best approach to her field and not get political. That is what I saw from her time and again. She is brilliant and well-respected among labor economists generally,' Boushey said. 'She wasn't coming into my office to talk politics or the political implications of something. She definitely wasn't engaging on that side of things.' ___ Olson reported from New York. Associated Press writer Christopher Rugaber in Washington contributed to this report.
