Analysis: New Quebec Liberal leader Pablo Rodriguez has his work cut out for him
By
QUEBEC — Now comes the hard part.
In winning the Quebec Liberal leadership Saturday in the second round of voting, with 52.3 per cent of the vote versus runner-up Charles Milliard's 47.7 per cent, Pablo Rodriguez takes on the stewardship of Quebec's oldest political party, which was founded in 1867 and has governed Quebec for much of its contemporary history.
Today that party is at a crossroads — a victim of Quebec's multi-party system, which has muddled the voting patterns from the days when the Liberals thrived by selling themselves as a mixture of economic stability and a bulwark against referendums on independence.
After losing the 2018 general election to the Coalition Avenir Québec — which promised a third option beyond federalism and sovereignty, based on economic growth and nationalism — the Liberals did worse in 2022, earning less than 15 per cent of the vote and a mere 21 seats.
Without the support of non-francophone minority voters in the Montreal region, which helped the party earn more seats, the Liberals today would not have the title of the official opposition in the National Assembly.
Enter Rodriguez, a former federal cabinet minister from the Justin Trudeau years.
In electing Rodriguez as leader Saturday over the other candidates in the race, the Liberals decided he is the one to end their long walk in the political hinterland. They believed his promise of a return to power.
Throughout the long leadership race, he reminded them that he was the only one of the five candidates with extensive political experience, as a former transport and Canadian heritage minister and political organizer. He was also Trudeau's Quebec lieutenant from 2019 to 2024.
And Rodriguez didn't hesitate to mention he was better known than the other candidates, highlighting a Léger poll from May showing the Liberals under his leadership would come out ahead of the soaring Parti Québécois and drooping CAQ.
'Becoming leader of the Quebec Liberals is an incredible honour,' Rodriguez, 57, said in his victory speech Saturday. 'It's the honour of a lifetime.
'One race has ended today and another (the 2026 election) starts right away. Are you ready?'
But what lies ahead for Rodriguez in the short and long term?
For one thing, he has to quickly get a better grasp of how the Quebec government works. Far off in Ottawa, federal politicians rarely have to address the details of how health and education services are delivered to the people, sticking to big-picture policies.
Rodriguez will be facing seasoned politicians like Premier François Legault, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal, all of whom have a much firmer grasp on these issues and are ready to skewer the newbie when he trips up.
His federal Liberal roots will make him an easy target, and they won't hesitate to portray his arrival as a federal takeover of the Quebec Liberal 'branch plant.'
'I'm my own man and will be judged on my own decisions, my team, my program,' Rodriguez responded Saturday to reporters.
There is also the matter of a seat in the Quebec legislature. Rodriguez does not have one.
That will limit his media visibility and ability to impose his leadership on the 19-member Liberal caucus. Participating in the cut and thrust of daily question period — something he can't do without a seat — is good practice for those televised election campaign debates he will face in the 2026 election.
There were rumours flying at the Liberal convention Saturday that Rodriguez would ask St-Laurent MNA Marwah Rizqy, who has announced she will not run in 2026, to leave earlier and free up a riding.
But Rodriguez does not appear to be in a hurry to get into the legislature. The advantage of staying away for now is he will have time to rebuild the party in the regions, which is key to shoring up support with francophone voters.
In the last two elections, francophone voters turned to the CAQ. They decide who gets elected in Quebec because they dominate the vote in most of the 125 ridings. In the May Léger poll, the Liberals were polling at 10 per cent in this voting group.
'The Liberals need to reconnect with francophone voters,' Université Laval political science professor Éric Montigny said in an interview. 'That implies (the party) renewing itself with a certain nationalism without alienating its current base.
'It also needs to beef up its economic credo and propose audacious ideas. In a multi-party system, it can no longer count on the fear of the PQ to get itself elected.'
The Liberals undertook just such a reboot after the 2022 election, led by former senator André Pratte and Bourassa-Sauvé MNA Madwa-Nika Cadet. The party approved a new program that, among other things, called for the drafting of a Quebec constitution to defend Quebec's interests in the federation.
Seen as an effort to shore up nationalist votes, none of the candidates in the leadership race aside from Mario Roy said a Quebec constitution would be a priority for them.
The challenge is great, the landscape ever shifting. In recent weeks, Legault himself has been adjusting his message to counter the surging PQ, which, for the moment, represents a greater threat to him than the Liberals.
Aligning himself with Prime Minister Mark Carney, Legault has been saying only a CAQ government can protect the Quebec economy from U.S. tariffs, and that means working closely with the federal government — something the PQ is not interested in doing.
Stopping short of calling himself a federalist, Legault said the PQ's plan to hold another referendum on sovereignty could not come at a worse time.
'Imagine if Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was in my place tomorrow morning,' Legault told Radio-Canada as the legislature recessed for the summer on June 6. 'He only wants to demonstrate that Canada does not work.'
Rodriguez will have to find a way to counter Legault's scheme, which taps into the Liberals' federalist bread and butter.
Some veteran Liberals remain optimistic about the party's brand despite its poor performance in recent years. A key argument rests on the party's ability to create a bigger tent than the CAQ or PQ can, they say.
'Quebecers are thirsty for leadership — a leadership that is not one of turning inwards,' former premier Jean Charest told Liberals in a speech Saturday. 'Quebecers want us to reconnect with all of Quebec, whether you live in Montreal or the regions, whether you speak English or French.
'More than ever, what we need is to be together.'
'There's a change in the political dynamic that leaves room for the Liberal party,' former premier Philippe Couillard said Saturday in an interview at the leadership convention. 'There have been highs and lows (for the party historically). We have always come through them.'
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
National Observer
an hour ago
- National Observer
Energy minister leans on oil industry talking points in carbon capture announcement
At a carbon capture funding announcement, Canada's energy minister was using rhetoric straight out of Big Oil's playbook. On Friday, the federal government announced $21.5 million for a handful of carbon capture projects in Alberta, and while the amount isn't going to move the needle, Energy and Natural Resource Minister Tim Hodgson's choice of words and tone signal how Prime Minister Mark Carney's government plans to engage with the fossil fuel industry. Hodgson billed this as 'an investment in the long-term future of the oil and gas industry' and highlighted other federal support for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). 'Every barrel of responsibly produced Canadian oil and every tonne of clean Canadian LNG can displace less clean, riskier energy elsewhere in the world,' Hodgson said at the announcement in Calgary. 'Our exports can help our allies break dependence on authoritarian regimes and help the world reduce our emissions. Canada will remain a reliable global supplier — not just today, but for decades to come. The real challenge is not whether we produce, but whether we can get the best products to market before someone else does.' The line that Canadian oil and gas is more ethical and more responsibly produced than in other parts of the world — and that it displaces dirtier fuels elsewhere — are tried-and-true industry talking points. Similarly, the idea that Canada will inevitably remain a major oil producer or be replaced in the market by other players is a familiar oilpatch argument. 'Is that Minister Hodgson saying that, or is that somebody from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers?' Stephen Legault, senior manager of Alberta energy transition at Environmental Defence, asked in a phone interview with Canada's National Observer. 'Because the two, in that statement, sound indistinguishable.' On Friday, the federal government announced $21.5 million for a handful of carbon capture projects in Alberta. The minister's remarks signal that Carney's government is trying to find a way for Canada to continue on as a petro-state and is 'desperately' looking for ways to somehow make it socially acceptable, Legault said. Bitumen from Alberta's oil sands is among the dirtiest, most water- and carbon-intensive oil in the world. Communities downstream of the oil sands live with health and environmental impacts every day. Carbon capture and storage has become a major fixation of the oil and gas industry in recent years as it seeks social licence to continue producing despite its climate impacts. 'These are talking points that the Pathways Alliance uses to justify trying to extract billions of dollars in Canadian taxpayers' money to clean up a mess made by the most wealthy companies in the country, and some of them the most wealthy in the world,' Legault said. Export Canadian LNG to fight climate change Hodgson emphasized the need to 'make investments that fight climate change, so we can reduce carbon emissions and bring the lowest-cost, lowest-risk and lowest-carbon products to domestic and international markets — like we have just seen this week with the momentous opening of LNG Canada Phase 1.' Some of Hodgson's comments justifying Canada's export of fossil fuels to reduce global emissions could also be lifted right out of the Conservative Party of Canada's election campaign materials, which proposed lowering global greenhouse gas emissions by exporting more Canadian LNG to countries that currently burn a lot of coal. However, a growing body of evidence throws cold water on the notion LNG is a lower-emission fuel than coal. A study from Cornell University, published last October, found carbon emissions from American LNG are actually 33 per cent higher than coal, when processing and shipping the LNG are taken into account. There's also widespread skepticism about the business case for ramping up LNG production and export. In October, researchers from the U.K.-based Carbon Tracker found global markets for LNG are likely to be oversupplied by the end of the decade. 'This was not the tone of a minister of natural resources who takes climate change seriously,' Legault said. 'Two weeks ago or three weeks ago, people were terrified that their communities were going to burn down, and the fire season had barely begun. We've got record temperatures around the world right now, people are dying, and it would appear as though the Carney government is going down the same path that we might have gotten with a Poilievre government, which is to believe the rhetoric that these oil and gas companies are spewing and to believe the rhetoric that Danielle Smith is spewing.' Legault quipped that perhaps Stephen Harper's staff left his playbook for 'ethical oil' sitting around and one of Carney's people dusted it off. Government 'taking the temperature' for Pathways investment Hodgson delivered his remarks at Bow Valley Carbon Cochrane Ltd.'s facility, which is getting $10 million to design and install a system and pipeline to capture carbon from the Interpipeline Cochrane Natural Gas Extraction Plant, transport it and sequester it in a well. Enbridge Inc. and Enhance Energy Inc. are getting $4 million and $5 million, respectively, for work to support separate storage hubs in Central Alberta by identifying underground reservoirs to store the captured carbon. Half a million dollars will go to a company to improve measurement, monitoring and verification of CO2 stored underground. The remaining $2 million is to investigate using small-scale carbon capture technology on diesel engines. This $21.5 million comes from the Energy Innovation Program's $319-million funding stream for carbon capture. The funding was introduced in Budget 2021 and will span seven years. The federal government also has a CCUS investment tax credit worth more than $5.7-billion in its first six years, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer's estimates. All of this is dwarfed by a multi-billion-dollar carbon capture megaproject proposed by a consortium of Canada's six largest oil sands producers called the Pathways Alliance. The project, with an estimated $16.5-billion price tag, would capture carbon dioxide from more than a dozen oilsands sites in northern Alberta and transport it to an underground storage site south of Cold Lake, using approximately 600 kilometres of pipelines. Legault believes Hodsgon's remarks are 'taking the temperature' of the Canadian public to gauge what the reaction will be 'when the government makes an announcement that they want to support the Pathways Alliance.' At the news conference, Hodgson did not answer multiple questions about the Pathways Alliance's proposed multi-billion-dollar carbon capture megaproject and whether his government will put public money on the table, other than to say the discussions are 'active' and he will not 'negotiate in public.' A January 2025 study by The International Institute for Energy Economics and Financial found the Pathways project business model is shaky at best due to high costs and limited opportunities to generate revenue. The project is currently stalled awaiting an investment decision. A 'multi-billion-dollar CCUS industry' CCUS is widely criticized by climate advocates for its inefficiency, high cost and the fact it risks locking in oil and gas production despite the majority of the emissions created by burning fossil fuels. As Legault put it, these projects 'tend to leave an awful lot of carbon on the table, and that's not what we need right now.' 'If carbon capture was such a great idea, then the companies should pay for it themselves. It's not like they're cleaning up a mess that the Canadian public made. They're cleaning up a mess that they made.' Canada can develop 'a world-class, multi-billion-dollar CCUS industry' if governments move quickly and strategically, Hodgson said Friday, adding that Alberta is an 'MVP' in the federal government's game plan. New legislation grants the federal government broad powers to override environmental laws and regulations to build projects cabinet deems in the national interest, which could include a wide range of projects from ports, rail, electricity infrastructure, pipelines and carbon capture. The legislation has added fuel to conversations about new pipelines and Carney has name-dropped the Pathways carbon capture project as a possible contender. On Friday, Hodgson said, 'One of the criteria is that we honour our commitments to a clean economy and to fighting climate change, and that will be one of the key ways that we evaluate any project going forward.' The legislation does not force the federal government to treat this or any of its factors as criteria that must be met; it just suggests it as one of many to consider. 'I really hope that the prime minister has read his own book and is able to translate the value that he talks about in his book [ Value(s): Building a Better World for All ], into policy on the ground for Canada and its future, because right now, we're not getting many hopeful signs,' Legault said.
Montreal Gazette
an hour ago
- Montreal Gazette
Letters: Bilingual greetings shouldn't be shamed by CAQ government
Re: ' Language complaints soar in Quebec as English service eclipses concerns about signs ' (The Gazette, July 4) I often travel to Ottawa for work. When I stop in Casselman, a Franco-Ontarian bastion, I am greeted with 'Hello-Bonjour.' It's one thing to say everyone in Quebec is entitled to be greeted and served in French, as previous governments have, and quite another to attempt to shame businesses for also wanting to welcome clients in another language, as the Coalition Avenir Québec is doing. English is not a foreign language in Quebec, as much as some nationalists may like it to be. Jordan Black, Rosemont A caring response to an urgent need Re: ' 'I'm happy': From homeless to housed, tenants grateful for new Lachine facility ' (The Gazette, July 3) It was a pleasure to read about the Old Brewery Mission's Tenaquip Place. In a world where stories of hardship often dominate the headlines, it is deeply uplifting to see a project focused on compassion, community and hope. This complex is not just a structure — it's a sign we are capable of thoughtful, humane responses to urgent needs. We are at our best when we look out for one another. To those who made Tenaquip Place a reality, thank you for your vision and humanity. Elizabeth Bright, Côte-St-Luc Patriotism is a personal matter Re: ' Canadian pride isn't a betrayal of being a Quebecer ' (Robert Libman, June 28) It is infuriating that a nationalist commentator, as reported by Robert Libman, would try to negate what another person believes in by stating 'Canada is an artificial political structure.' The commentator also claims we can't be Canadian and Québécois at the same time. Perhaps they missed a recent Association for Canadian Studies poll that showed 82 per cent of Quebec respondents — believing a nation's 'members share a common culture, language and history' — felt 'they were part of the Canadian nation.' To harbour strong patriotic feelings for one's nation is fine, but to dismiss another's pride in a country you don't identify with is wrong-headed. Goldie Olszynko, Mile End NATO spending goal needs a rethink Re: ' Trump hedges on NATO pledge ' (NP Montreal, June 25); ' Ottawa pledges to ramp up NATO defence spending ' (NP Montreal, June 26) NATO's decision to raise member countries' defence spending to five per cent of GDP will pose serious difficulties for spending on domestic needs. The chief reasons given are the need to counter the increased threat posed by Russia and other hostile countries, and to match U.S. military expenditure in NATO. Yet according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia spent only US$149 billion on the military in 2024, while NATO countries collectively spent US$1,506 billion, with European NATO countries at US$454 billion. The U.S. spent only 3.38 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024. President Donald Trump has said the five per cent goal shouldn't apply to the U.S., but only to other NATO countries. For Canada to reach five per cent, it would have to increase its annual defence to $150 billion. This would probably result in significantly increased taxes, debt or severe cuts in domestic spending. Canada and other NATO countries should seriously reconsider this increase. Robert Hajaly, Montreal Submitting a letter to the editor Letters should be sent by email to letters@ We prioritize letters that respond to, or are inspired by, articles published by The Gazette. If you are responding to a specific article, let us know which one. Letters should be sent uniquely to us. The shorter they are — ideally, fewer than 200 words — the greater the chance of publication. Timing, clarity, factual accuracy and tone are all important, as is whether the writer has something new to add to the conversation. We reserve the right to edit and condense all letters. Care is taken to preserve the core of the writer's argument. Our policy is not to publish anonymous letters, those with pseudonyms or 'open letters' addressed to third parties. Letters are published with the author's full name and city or neighbourhood/borough of residence. Include a phone number and address to help verify identity; these will not be published. We will not indicate to you whether your letter will be published. If it has not been published within 10 days or so, it is not likely to be.
Toronto Star
an hour ago
- Toronto Star
What the CBC needs: not more money, but real leadership
In the new book 'The Big Picture: A Personal History of Independent Television Production in Canada,' veteran TV producer Pat Ferns — who helped shepherd into existence such well-remembered creations as 'Glory Enough for All' and 'Letter from Wingfield Farm' — outlines the evolution of Canada's independent production industry and its worrying future prospects. Here, he offers some free advice for the CBC. In a 1939 speech, my godfather, Leonard Brockington — the CBC's first chairman — passionately urged our new public broadcaster to concentrate 'all available sources of revenue … on the production of Canadian programs.' He described the ideal model as 'public ownership of stations, competition in programs,' and warned that 'advertising and the profit motive should not be the foundations on which this new medium of mass communication should be built.' If only his advice had been followed. Instead, we've ended up with a hybrid public broadcaster — particularly in television — that is increasingly dependent on advertising revenue, and perpetually pleading poverty when compared to its international peers. In broad strokes, CBC's budget is about $1.4 billion of which about $400 million comes from advertising revenue — more than the promised new funding, but more than sufficient to distort its vision as a public broadcaster. Opinion articles are based on the author's interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details
