UFC Abu Dhabi predictions, odds, full card picks: Can Robert Whittaker make one final title run?

Yahoo

3 days ago

The UFC is back in Abu Dhabi for what looks to be a solid Fight Night offering.
It's middleweight season in MMA, with former champion Robert Whittaker looking to halt the momentum of former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder in the evening's main event. The victor will position himself in a prime spot atop the division's ladder ahead of August's title fight. With UFC Paris' headliner also featuring top middleweight contenders on Sept. 6, everyone involved will undoubtedly be looking to stamp their claim as the next up in line.
The same can be said for UFC Abu Dhabi's co-feature, which sees the return of former bantamweight champion Petr Yan. Similar to Whittaker, Yan looks to fend off the rising contender Marcus McGhee and move closer to the title scene he occupied years back.
UFC Abu Dhabi, as a whole, is more of what we used to expect out of these roadshow events. Fights with stakes. There are several throughout this card, making it one well worth tuning in for.
👑 UFC Abu Dhabi's lineup Crown grade: B+. 👑
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
185 pounds: Robert Whittaker (-150) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+125)
When middleweight is at its most middleweight, it's unlike any other division — for better or worse. That's the fun of it, right? Well, UFC Abu Dhabi's main event encapsulates that pretty well, and it's of the awesome variety.
On one hand, you have the perpetually refined, established and elite striking specialist Whittaker. On the flipside, there's de Ridder; arguably the best submission artist in the division, who continues to surprise the oddsmakers with each UFC win.
It's still astonishing to think that this fight is actually happening. Just last year, de Ridder had his rematch against ONE heavyweight star Anatoly Malykhin — the only man to beat him in 22 fights. Outside of the monstrous Malykhin, de Ridder has finished all but two of his wins.
I'll tell you guys now, he's going to do it again.
This is one of those fights where you hate to say that for. Whittaker is on the same level as Dustin Poirier in terms of a universally beloved status. And like Poirier, he's very much still one of the best in the world, and by all accounts, he should win this fight. However, de Ridder has the hot hand, figuratively and literally.
At 6-foot-4, "RDR" is a long and rangy middleweight, and he uses every bit of his length to pummel his way into filthy clinch situations. Whether that's to unload knees to the body or head, or to attempt trips and takedowns to work his brilliant grappling.
Whittaker has showcased his incredible takedown defense countless times throughout his legendary career. Only recently has it loosened, when met with the unstoppable forces atop the division, Khamzat Chimaev and the champion Dricus du Plessis.
On the feet, "The Reaper" will be dealt with a high-pressure game from de Ridder. I mean, de Ridder told me as much ahead of the fight that that's his plan: Bully Whittaker on the feet into an eventual submission. That's the best approach, but de Ridder will likely employ sharper offensive tactics than, for instance, Derek Brunson, who famously served up his knockout loss to Whittaker on a silver platter in 2016.
Whittaker is not washed, despite admittedly seeing the light at the end of his career's tunnel. De Ridder has simply entered that realm of perpetual doubt, needing that one big win that convinces the world, "OK. Let's stop betting against him. He's pretty good." This matchup has all the makings of being the one.
Pick: de Ridder
135 pounds: Petr Yan (N/A) vs. Marcus McGhee (N/A)
As much of a headscratcher as Yan vs. McGhee was it was when first announced, that didn't mean it wasn't a fun matchup on paper.
Yan is still as good as it gets in the 135-pound division, and after years of showing it in championship caliber performances, he's become somewhat of a dark horse thanks to the rises of his fellow contenders. "No Mercy" always shows exactly that when he enters the octagon. His boxing acumen is among the very best in all of MMA, and McGhee will be outgunned in a pure punchfest. However, he carries enough power to where he can change the tides with a clean shot. Yan is just one tough cookie, suffering only a single knockdown in his UFC career when sat down by known power-puncher John Dodson. Then there's the strong wrestling game in Yan's back pocket, which he uses to unleash one of the nastier ground and pound games of the 2020s.
McGhee is a great talent, especially for an older prospect at 35. That's older than the 32-year-old former champ Yan. Ultimately, the level of competition and experience here is so wildly in favor of Yan. He's just sharper and better everywhere, with the exception of maybe power. Anything can happen, but this would be a hell of an upset if McGhee pulls it off.
Pick: Yan
185 pounds: Sharabutdin Magomedov (-600) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+425)
Alright, "Shara Bullet" will win this fight.
The oddsmakers aren't being fooled by Marc-Andre Barriault's great first-round finish of Bruno Silva, who was 1-6 in his last seven before they fought. Barriault snapped his three-fight skid to effectively save his job. Stylistically, there just aren't many good matchups for the Canadian at middleweight. He was dusted by the big hitters Joe Pyfer and Dustin Stoltzfus, while going to a split decision with Chris Curtis prior.
Magomedov is one of the flashiest and most lethal with their versatility at middleweight, boding horribly for Barriault. You can pretty much use the Men In Black magic memory eraser of Magomedov's Michael "Venom" Page loss because that was a literal one of a kind loss, thanks to Page's own unique striking.
This is a showcase rebound fight for Magomedov, and he'll get the job done within his alotted 15 minutes.
Pick: Magomedov
125 pounds: Asu Almabayev (-115) vs. Jose Ochoa (-105)
It was a tough day at the office for Asu Almabayev in his first UFC main event against Manel Kape last March. Ultimately, the fight proved too much too soon despite Almabayev's impressive 21-2 record. On the other hand, Ochoa put the division on notice with his epic finish second-round finish of Cody Durden at UFC Atlanta last month.
The turn around is quick for Ochoa, but he might be trying to follow that Joshua Van blueprint. Keep riding the wave of momentum and launch yourself into contention purely off successful activity.
Ochoa is lightning quick precision striker, who when he lands does great damage, as Durden discovered. Almabayev was bullied around the octagon by Kape, which is unlikely to happen in this fight, but he'll be fighting an uphill battle when striking with Ochoa. The Lone'er Kavanagh loss appeared to be a good learning lesson for Ochoa, and he should be defensively sound enough to avoid any real problematic positions against Almabayev.
Pick: Ochoa
205 pounds: Nikita Krylov (-200) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+165)
Something Bogdan Guskov is doing is just working.
The Uzbekistan brawler isn't necessarily the best light heavyweight prospect or one we can visibly see will go far, but he's putting dudes away more often than not. Guskov is a finisher and goes for the kill whenever possible.
Admittedly, Nikita Krylov is a seasoned veteran to propel up the ranks against. When Guskov last fought someone similar, it was Volkan Oezdemir in his promotional debut, losing by first-round rear-naked choke. Krylov is staying active with this rebound attempt, tasting defeat by knockout for the first time when he met Dominick Reyes in April.
When we look at experience and that good old competition level scale, it weighs heavily in favor of Krylov. But in his case, he accrued so much that it might be adding up, and this fight has all the makings of a car crash with a guaranteed finish. Guskov has just been on a roll since his UFC debut, and Krylov's last performance was not a good one.
Pick: Guskov
Preliminary Notes
How often do featherweights go down to compete in the objectively more challenging division of bantamweight? How often do they do it when coming off terrible losses? I don't have those numbers, but Bryce Mitchell is doing that at UFC Abu Dhabi against Said Nurmagomedov. This feels like a total Hail Mary attempt at getting back on track because he wasn't ever outsized at 145 pounds.
Meanwhile, the once highly-touted strawweight and flyweight prospect Amanda Ribas finds herself buried on the prelims against Tabatha Ricci. It's not necessarily surprising at this point in her career, but that's a big one to stay relevant in the standings for Ribas.
In the UFC Abu Dhabi opener, Marcus Buchecha debuts after his run in ONE Championship with a ranked heavyweight. If that isn't another indicator of the state of the division, then I don't know what is. Buchecha could easily ascend to the top of heavyweight with an impressive win, and boy does the division desperately need a good injection of life like he can be.
Quick picks:
Said Nurmagomedov (+115) def. Bryce Mitchell (-140)
Carlos Leal (-500) def. Muslim Salikhov (+360)
Da'Mon Blackshear (-325) def. Davey Grant (+260)
Amanda Ribas (-200) def. Tabatha Ricci (+165)
Ibo Aslan (-300) def. Billy Elekana (+240)
Steven Nguyen (-350) def. Mohammad Yahya (+280)
Marcus "Buchecha" Almeida (-300) def. Martin Buday (+250)