Global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025 revised downward over tariff uncertainty: Report
However, most regions will still likely see growth, except North America and China, according to Counterpoint Research's latest Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report.
Price increases from cost pass-throughs remain a key focal point, although the tariff situation remains fluid and unpredictable.
Commenting on the revised forecast, Associate Director Liz Lee commented, "All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia."
Lee added, "We still expect positive 2025 shipment growth for Apple driven by the iPhone 16 series' strong performance in Q1 2025."
Moreover, premiumisation trends remain supportive across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia and Gulf countries - these are long-term tailwinds for iPhones, according to Lee.
Counterpoint Research's current forecasts assume a relatively stable tariff environment through 2025, although the escalating rhetoric and uncertainty around trade policy could significantly impact manufacturer's pricing strategies, supply chain planning, and, ultimately, consumer demand.
Commenting on projections for global smartphone shipment growth in 2025, Associate Director Ethan Qi said, "The bright spot this year - again - will likely be Huawei. We are seeing an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei grab substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home."
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Times of Oman
5 hours ago
- Times of Oman
India's garments sector faces tariff challenge, country needs bold reforms: GTRI's Ajay Srivastava
New Delhi: With the US administration under President Donald Trump imposing 25 per cent tariffs on Indian goods plus an unspecified 'penalty', India's textile and garment sector is likely to face stiff competition from Bangladesh and Vietnam, who have been hit with comparatively lower tariffs, Ajay Srivastava, founder of trade think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), has said. "Bangladesh and Vietnam are big players in garment exports and have a better tariff position than India. This puts our textile and garment industry at a disadvantage. The same concern extends to leather goods," Srivastava told ANI in a product-wise analysis of the US tariff impact. While labour-intensive sectors like textiles and leather are expected to feel the heat, India's auto components, steel, and aluminium industries are likely to remain relatively unaffected, as the tariff levels on these items are broadly comparable across competing nations, he argued further. Critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics (including smartphones), and petroleum products have been kept exempt from the fresh tariff measures, he claimed. Overall, India has a 6-8 per cent disadvantage in comparison to other key Asian countries competing for market share in the US, according to Srivastava. To deal with this challenge, Srivastava argued that India must move beyond tariff negotiations and trade agreements, and instead focus on bold domestic reforms. "If we manufacture good quality products at competitive prices, they will sell -- with or without a trade deal. Look at China, it exports massively without relying on trade agreements," he said. He recommended a strong focus on reducing the cost of manufacturing and improving ease of doing business. "Internal reforms are now essential. It's time for serious measures," he added. Srivastava also cited the European Union's upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective from 2026, as an example of growing global protectionism. He suggested India diversify revenue sources by boosting tourism, which he said could offset tariff-related export losses. "Tourism has the potential to generate double the revenue we may lose from US tariffs," he said. Over the past few months, India and the US have been negotiating for an interim trade deal, but there were some reservations from the Indian side on the US demand for opening up the agricultural and dairy sectors. Agriculture and dairy are critical for India as these two sectors provide livelihood opportunities to a large section of people. On Wednesday, President Trump announced the imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on Indian goods plus an unspecified penalty, even as there were hopes of an interim India-US trade deal that would have otherwise helped avoid elevated tariffs. India and the US initiated talks for a just, balanced, and mutually beneficial Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in March this year, aiming to complete the first stage of the Agreement by October-November 2025. On April 2, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order for reciprocal tariffs on various trade partners, imposing varied tariffs in the range of 10-50 per cent. He subsequently kept the tariffs in abeyance for 90 days, while imposing a 10 per cent baseline tariff. The deadline was to end on July 9, and the US administration later pushed it to August 1. US President Donald Trump had imposed reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries with which the US has a trade deficit. Since assuming office for his second term, President Trump has reiterated his stance on tariff reciprocity, emphasising that the United States will match tariffs imposed by other countries, including India, to "ensure fair trade".
Times of Oman
5 hours ago
- Times of Oman
India's economic strength will withstand US tariff shock, sectoral experts speak in one voice
New Delhi: Experts from across Indian industries have expressed confidence in the resilience of the Indian economy amid the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, describing the move as impactful in the short term but unlikely to dent India's long-term economic growth story. Reacting to the tariff hike announced by President Trump, Sushil Mohta, Chairman of the Kolkata-based real estate player Merlin Group, said India's robust economy would absorb the shock with minimal long-term disruption. "I don't think it will make a huge difference. Our economy is very strong today, India is the fourth-largest economy in the world," Mohta told ANI. "The common people in India work very hard. Our growth is driven by that effort, not dependent on the policies of any one country." He pointed to the relatively muted response in domestic stock markets as proof of the economy's strength. "If there were a major global disruption, we would have seen an immediate reflection in the markets. That hasn't happened," he noted. On the issue of trade exposure, Mohta said that India's economy is not overly reliant on the US or any single country. From the agriculture sector, Dev Garg, Vice President of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF), noted that the US tariff move was "concerning" for rice exporters. "Last year, India exported around Rs 3,100 crore worth of Basmati and non-Basmati rice to the US. This year, we've only managed Rs 833 crore so far," he said. However, Garg also viewed the latest tariff development with cautious optimism. "This could be a blessing in disguise. Thailand and Pakistan, our two key competitors in the US rice market, face 19 per cent tariffs, while India now faces 25 per cent -- just a 6 per cent gap," he explained. Expecting the depreciation of the Indian Rupee and anticipated deflationary trends in domestic prices, Indian rice could still remain competitive. "We have record surplus stocks and a weaker rupee at Rs 88 per dollar. These factors may help us offset the tariff burden and possibly even surpass last year's export figures," he added. Meanwhile, Niranjan Hiranandani, Chairman of the National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO), dismissed President Trump's remarks on India's economy being "dead," a comment echoed by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. "India is currently the fastest-growing major economy with a GDP growth rate of 6.2 per cent to 6.7 per cent. There's no question of it (Indian economy) being weak," Hiranandani said. "We are strengthening self-reliance across defence, agriculture, and manufacturing. The ambition is clear (that) India must become truly self-sufficient," he added. Over the past few months, India and the US have been negotiating for an interim trade deal, but there were some reservations from the Indian side on the US demand for opening up the agricultural and dairy sectors for the US. Agriculture and dairy are critical for India as these two sectors provide livelihood opportunities to a large section of its people. On Wednesday, President Trump announced the imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on Indian goods plus an unspecified 'penalty', even as there were hopes of an interim India-US trade deal that would have otherwise helped avoid elevated tariffs. India and the US initiated talks for a just, balanced, and mutually beneficial Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in March this year, aiming to complete the first stage of the Agreement by October-November 2025. On April 2, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order for reciprocal tariffs on various trade partners, imposing varied tariffs in the range of 10-50 per cent. He subsequently kept the tariffs in abeyance for 90 days, while imposing a 10 per cent baseline tariff. The deadline was to end on July 9, and the US administration later pushed it ahead to August 1. US President Donald Trump had imposed reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries with which the US has a trade deficit. Since assuming office for his second term, President Trump has reiterated his stance on tariff reciprocity, emphasising that the United States will match tariffs imposed by other countries, including India, to "ensure fair trade". On Thursday evening, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal made a statement in both houses of the Parliament, stating that the government is examining the impact of tariffs and will take all necessary steps to safeguard the national interest.
Times of Oman
5 hours ago
- Times of Oman
US, European stock markets tumble on Trump's tariff move; Amazon & Apple shares face heavy selling
New Delhi: US stock markets faced heavy selling pressure on Friday after President Donald Trump implemented fresh reciprocal tariffs on 70 countries, including India. The new tariffs have raised fears of rising inflation in the US, as imports will become more expensive and prices of goods sold in the country are expected to rise in the coming months. The major US stock indices witnessed sharp declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 1.2 per cent to close at 43,588.58, down by 542.40 points. The S&P 500 also dropped by 1.6 per cent, losing 101 points to settle at 6,238. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index tanked more than 2.2 per cent, falling by 472 points to close at 20,650. Several major US companies saw their share prices tumble. Amazon Inc. shares on the Nasdaq declined sharply by 8.27 per cent. Shares of tech giant Apple also dropped by 2.5 per cent, reflecting broad-based selling across the technology sector. In a major development, President Trump abruptly fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Trump accused her of releasing "fake" jobs data ahead of the 2024 US Presidential Election in an attempt to support Vice President Kamala Harris. In a social media post, Trump said, "I was just informed that our Country's 'Jobs Numbers' are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala's chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000." Trump added, "These were Records -- No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified." The panic in global markets extended to Europe as well. Germany's DAX index dropped by more than 2.7 per cent, while France's CAC index fell by 2.99 per cent, showing heavy selling pressure across European markets too.
