AFL key take-outs round 17: Where have the close finishes gone?

The Age

07-07-2025

With 14 wins needed to qualify for finals there should be plenty of desperate finishes in the final seven rounds.
We need them. The winter hibernation has gone on too long.
Do scores win premierships? History says defences do
Western Bulldogs defeated North Melbourne by 49 points
We said last week that it was not outlandish to think the Bulldogs could still make the top four, considering they have one of the easiest runs home, according to Champion Data.
They made the most of a banged-up North Melbourne on Thursday night, and now await Essendon at Marvel Stadium. Then comes Melbourne and West Coast – an excellent run for this time of the year.
But what we really have been drawn to are the number of scoring options Luke Beveridge has at his disposal in the league's highest scoring team, and how the complexion of their forward line changes when Aaron Naughton gets going.
Naughton is something of a lightning rod for criticism for Bulldogs' fans. Held goalless by Hawthorn and St Kilda last month, there were public questions again, including by prominent commentator David King, whether he would be better suited to playing in defence, a switch Beveridge has long eschewed. But Naughton's five goals against the Kangaroos, four of which came in the second term when fellow tall Sam Darcy was well held by the emerging Will Dawson, highlighted why he is needed up forward. Naughton also had five marks for the term, and was the reason why the Bulldogs led at the main break.
He appears a far more dangerous weapon when Darcy is by his side. Since the latter's return in round 14, Naughton has booted 12.5, leaving him with 31 for the season [Darcy has 29 for the season].
Naughton was instrumental in the Bulldogs scoring 100 or more points for the tenth time this season, including in their past four games. Their efficiency, as we mentioned against the Swans last week, is superb. From 66 inside 50 against the Kangaroos, they had 34 scoring shots.
And what should be particularly frightening for opponents is that, outside of Darcy and Naughton, they have 10 other players with double-figure goals, including Rhylee West [24] and former Blue Matt Kennedy [19]. That's the recipe of a team that could inflict some serious damage come September.
The only concern for the Bulldogs is their defensive profile is not where it was by the end of last season. They have conceded more points than any top eight team after 16 matches and gave away 78 points in the first three quarters against North Melbourne before tightening up. Work is to be done in that area. – Jon Pierik
Forget 'eyes in' motto, Vossy. Bring fresh eyes only
Collingwood defeated Carlton by 56 points at the MCG, Friday night
After Port Adelaide's loss to the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night, Ken Hinkley – who is handing over the coaching reins to Josh Carr at season's end – was positive about the future and said he wanted to encourage his players to enjoy their football and lead them in a way that fosters that.
Carlton coach Michael Voss might feel as though he is in a different position to his former mentor, but his strong suit is, and always has been, his leadership.
He needs to open the floor to understand what has stopped his team from playing four quarters of combative football and work with his most in-tune players to ensure he facilitates an environment they want to enter for the next seven weeks.
The team looked tired and broken from playing a contested brand over many years, and they have stopped believing it can work. Their ball movement was awful against the Magpies. Their effort in the second and third quarters was way below par.
Voss's greatest assets right now are a senior core of Jacob Weitering, Nic Newman, George Hewett and Sam Walsh who can give an unvarnished opinion on what is needed on the field.
The skipper Patrick Cripps is obviously a key, but he seems so wounded he might be better off taking direction for once rather than being called on to give it, adopting a subservient leadership approach for the remainder of the season, and just focusing on keeping the group connected.
Assuming he remains, as he should, the warrior Cripps should consider handing over the captaincy at season's end to Weitering. Scott Pendlebury did so with grace at the end of 2022 and has continued to excel since that point.
And Voss needs to take every opportunity he can to play younger players who will be there next season and try other more senior players in different roles with Zac Williams move to the middle a good start.
Ashton Moir showed signs of his talent against Collingwood and Matt Carroll's run along the Shane Warne Stand wing in the third quarter was a glimpse into his ability. Harry O'Farrell was exposed, but his lack of strength can be rectified over time, and the VFL team won again with both Camporeale boys impressing.
The players can't do what Voss wants them to do right now after 82 matches of brutal football. The coaches need to find each players' strength and let them go after it for the final seven rounds regardless of results.
That doesn't mean ignoring competitiveness. That will be judged but the players need to be fresh to bring their competitive best for four quarters. Right now, they have a bad case of the mid-winter Blues. - Peter Ryan
More antagonistic Suns are starting to shine
Gold Coast beat Essendon by 41 points at Marvel Stadium
Gold Coast would have lost the match to Essendon last season. They would have definitely lost it the year before. Challenging them for three quarters away from home would have been enough for them to wilt. But with more mature stars Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell in the middle and two players inside 50 – one reliable in Touk Miller, the other a future star in Bailey Humphrey – the Suns kicked 6.3 (39) to 0.1 (1) in the final quarter. The 38-point gap was the biggest final quarter margin in their favour in the club's history.
Even better they are not altering their ways at centre bounces because of a knee-jerk AFL ruling which threatens to suspend Matt Rowell if he inadvertently touches an umpire. It's healthy to hear as the Suns have been the 'how high do we need to jump?' club in relation to the AFL for too long.
Of course the AFL's financial support is necessary, but they need to adopt a public position of club first in all their public utterances and Hardwick's criticism of the new ruling and Rowell's steadfast refusal to change the way he sets up at a centre bounce despite the idle threat of a suspension if he touches an umpire in play is a good sign the club is maturing.
The recession the Saints had to have
Hawthorn defeated St Kilda by 20 points at Marvel Stadium
Saints' coach Ross Lyon employed then treasurer Paul Keating's famous quote in 1990 to convey to Saints' supporters a message that the club's decision to temporarily go back to go forwards would eventually pay dividends.
That strategy is appropriate and consistent with Lyon's utterances since he took over from Brett Ratten who was in fact, despite president Andrew Bassat's words at the time he was sacked, doing a very reasonable job with the list he had.
What Bassatt also said at that time though was that the club needed to 'have a stronger crack at getting the foundations right.'
That's why the club's decision to end their alignment with Sandringham to have their own standalone team is a significant part of their restructuring as they look to get the best out of what is now a promising crop of youngsters.
What is at stake was obvious on Saturday night. Alix Tauru's first quarter tackle and third quarter mark was brilliant enough for Saints' supporters to thank rather than boo departed free agent Josh Battle. Tauru was the player they chose using the compensation pick received for losing Battle.
They have obvious talents in Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Marcus Windhager, who they must re-sign, and Mitch Owens but there are also players who can be excellent, consistent AFL players with the right development program. Max Hall, a rookie pick, was excellent while Darcy Wilson and Liam Henry have shown their talent but need intensive work to become consistent AFL performers.
Tobie Travaglia is also promising and when they get Max King and Matteas Phillipou back fit and firing they will match it with Hawthorn soon enough, particularly if Tom De Koning, even at a price beyond what ruckman are worth, joins them.
Amid all that they should pause too and pay more credence in public forums to the excellent job their skipper Jack Steele has done to keep things together while such change was occurring. He laid 15 tackles against Hawthorn and his leadership role has been underrated.