The one thing about Mamdani's win that should worry Republicans

Washington Post

2 days ago

Armin Thomas and Leon Sit are partners at Split Ticket, an election data analysis firm.
You shouldn't read too much into one mayoral election in New York City — let alone a Democratic primary — when it comes to gauging the broader political winds. But if there's one warning sign for Republicans, it's that national polling is starting to show discontent among two key groups that swung hard right for Donald Trump in 2024 and that helped power Zohran Mamdani's upset win: young people and Latinos.
Trump romped to victory in 2024 by promising to improve the cost of living after a spike in inflation and to reset immigration policy after a rapid influx of migrants. But recent polling shows that young and Latino voters have moved sharply against the president in both of these areas and are judging his performance harshly overall.
Based on five June polls measuring Trump's approval rating, the president's numbers among these groups have fallen far from his 2024 high-water mark. These negative ratings also stand out compared with movement among more 'traditionally' Republican groups: White voters and voters over 65. For each of these groups, there was less of a shift in voting behavior last election. Trump's June approval with voters over 65 is only net negative by 6.5 points, while he is above water with Whites by three points.
The issues bothering these groups notably connect to ones that Mamdani — who began his campaign by interviewing Trump voters in November — ran on. He promised to both make the city more affordable and protect migrants from Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdowns.
On the issue of the economy, young people have a more unfavorable than favorable view of Trump's performance by a 25-point margin. With Latinos, it's 26 points. By contrast, the disapproval margin for voters over 65 is 7.5 points, and it's less than one point for White voters.
There's some overlap between these trends: Latino voters tend to skew younger in the electorate, as the demographic has grown quickly in size and electoral importance. A large number of voters cited economic pressure during the Biden presidency as their reason for switching parties — crediting the prior Trump presidency with a stronger economic climate.
Approval ratings and voting behavior are not the same thing, of course, but these persistent negative ratings among the groups that swung the largest toward the president suggest that these voters are not feeling the economic relief they believed they would be getting.
On the issue of immigration, this divergence also persists. Young voters are more likely to have an unfavorable view of Trump on immigration than a favorable one by a margin of 18 points, and Latinos by 24 points, as the administration pursues a wide range of policies that have affected undocumented immigrants as well as foreign students, certain green-card holders, and people who have been temporarily allowed to live and work in the United States.
Democrats should nonetheless temper their expectations. Even with strong disapproval ratings among these groups, it is unlikely that they will swing back to being as Democratic as they were previously. Trump's approval is still higher with them than it was at a comparable point in his first term.
It's not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but it does suggest that the Republican brand, though tarnished since last year's election, remains stronger among these key groups than it did eight years ago.
But Democrats also don't need to recover all their losses to have a strong performance in the midterms. Even a 1 percent better showing in House races overall would have secured them the speaker's gavel last year. The Republican Party will be making a mistake if it thinks it can take its newest voters for granted.