Prison Population Projected To Boom Over Next Decade
New Zealand's prison population is expected to increase by 36 percent over the next decade.
The Ministry of Justice projects there will be 14,230 prisoners in June 2035, up from 10,488 in February 2025.
The projections take into account government policies like the reinstatement of 'Three Strikes', and reforms to cap sentencing discounts and introduce more aggravating factors.
Last year's report, which projected a prison population of 11,317 by June 2034, did not take into account those policies, as they had not yet been passed into law.
"The new policy settings are expected to see more offenders receive prison sentences and for those sentences to be longer," said ministry sector insights general manager Rebecca Parish.
The projected increase takes into account both the remand and sentenced populations.
The number of those on remand is projected to increase steadily over the time period. The sentenced population is expected to increase rapidly until June 2028 and then gradually by June 2035.
Those on remand have spent longer on remand, due to their cases taking longer to go through the courts, but Parish said initiatives were underway to reduce the time taken to resolve cases and the time spent in custodial remand.
The ministry said it released these reports to evaluate long-term trends, and help inform investment, planning and policy decisions.
Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell said he had every confidence that Corrections had the capacity and capability to safely manage short-term and long-term projections.
"The government has invested significantly into our Corrections system to safely manage the increasing prison population. This includes funding for the expansion of Waikeria and Christchurch Men's prisons, and investment to enable Corrections to recruit, train, and deploy more frontline corrections officers," he said.
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith said last year's projections had made it clear that once the government's law and order policies had taken effect the numbers would increase.
"This simply reflects our work to restore law and order to New Zealand, which we know is working. We've given police and the courts more tools to go after gangs, we've put a stop to public funding of background reports, we've toughened up our sentencing laws, and reinstated the Three Strikes legislation," he said.
"We want to see fewer people in prison, but only after we see fewer victims of violent crime. Victims are our priority."
The report was done in collaboration with Corrections, Police, Crown Law and the Serious Fraud Office.
Labour corrections spokesperson Tracey McLellan said building expensive mega-prisons would not fix the problem in the long-term.
"If the government were serious about reducing crime and keeping communities safe, they'd be focusing on the drivers of crime and providing rehabilitation," she said.
"We need a government focused on truly breaking the cycle of crime to keep our communities safe."
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