Optimism for American Agriculture Highest in 4 Years: Farmer Survey
The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index hit 158 last month, up by 10 points from April, and has now recorded the highest level since May 2021. The index
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The Hill
an hour ago
- The Hill
Trump Energy secretary: AI race is next Manhattan Project
Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Tuesday compared the race to dominate artificial intelligence (AI) to an American atomic bomb program during World War II. 'The AI race is the second Manhattan project,' Wright said in a Tuesday post on the social platform X. During the Second World War, the U.S. government's Manhattan Project eventually succeeded in the creation of atomic weapons that the American military used against Japan in the latter half of the conflict. Amid the worldwide race to conquer AI, President Trump has faced increased pressure to withhold emerging U.S. technology from international adversaries while ensuring American chipmakers dominate the global stage. In May, the president signed several multibillion-dollar AI deals between U.S. companies and Gulf countries during a trip to the Middle East. On Tuesday, Trump announced $92 billion in new private data center and energy investments as his administration seeks to bolster the U.S.'s power supply in an effort to rapidly develop AI, which consumes a significant amount of energy. The president unveiled investments from 20 top energy and technology companies, including Google, CoreWeave, and Blackstone, at Sen. Dave McCormick's (R-Pa.) first Pittsburgh-based Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit.
San Francisco Chronicle
an hour ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Trump wields tariffs to sway Putin on Ukraine. Here's how they might work, or not
WASHINGTON (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin has sacrificed an estimated 1 million of his soldiers, killed and wounded, in a three-year campaign to crush Ukraine. Now President Donald Trump is betting that his go-to economic weapon — tariffs — can succeed where Ukrainian drones and rockets haven't, and finally persuade Putin to end his war. Tariffs, which the U.S. president has called ' the most beautiful word in the dictionary,'' are taxes on imports. They are Trump's all-purpose fix — a tool he deploys to protect American industry, lure factories to the United States, tackle drug trafficking and illegal immigration, and raise money to pay for his massive tax cuts. On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised he'd negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 24 hours. But months have passed without a peace deal, and the president has recently expressed frustration with the Russians. 'We're very, very unhappy with them ... I thought we would have had a deal two months ago, but it doesn't seem to get there,' Trump told reporters Monday. So in addition to agreeing to send more weapons to Ukraine, he's once again unsheathing tariffs. He said Monday the U.S. would impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, natural gas and other products if there isn't a peace deal in 50 days. The levies are meant to cause Russia financial pain by making its trading partners think twice before buying Russian energy. 'I use trade for a lot of things,'' Trump said, "but it's great for settling wars.' 'Unilateral tariffs are likely to be ineffective in influencing Putin's actions,' said Douglas Irwin, a Dartmouth College economist who studies American trade policy. "Financial sanctions in cooperation with European and other allies are much more likely to damage Russian economy, but whether they soften Russia's approach is also uncertain.'' The secondary tariffs idea isn't new. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut earlier this year introduced legislation that would impose a 500% tariff on countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products and uranium. If Trump goes through with his threat, his 100% tariffs have the potential to disrupt global commerce and push oil prices higher. They might also complicate Trump's efforts to strike separate trade deals with countries like China and India. The 100% tariffs would likely target China and India Since December 2022, when the European Union banned Russian oil, China and India have bought 85% of Russia's crude oil exports and 63% of its coal, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Finnish nonprofit. So they would likely be the two countries most affected by Trump's 100% import taxes. Trump has already tangled with China this year, and things did not go well. In April, Trump plastered a 145% levy on Chinese imports, and Beijing counterpunched with 125% tariffs of its own. The triple-digit tariffs threatened to end trade between the world's two biggest economies and briefly sent financial markets reeling. China also withheld shipments of rare earth minerals used in products such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, crippling U.S. businesses. After showing how much pain they could inflict on each other, the United States and China agreed to a ceasefire. A new 100% secondary tariff 'would blow up that deal,' said Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 'China is particularly well-placed to hold out,' said Nicholas Mulder, a Cornell University historian. "All this would get us back to a position of full confrontation that would be uncomfortable for all sides.'' Hufbauer also noted that the secondary tariffs would also likely end 'any rapprochement with India'' — the world's fifth-biggest economy and one with which Trump is pursuing a trade deal. Energy prices could climb If Trump goes ahead with the tariffs, 'it would invariably lead to higher global energy prices,'' especially for natural gas, economists Kieran Tompkins and Liam Peach of Capital Economics wrote in a commentary Monday. Other oil-exporting countries have enough spare capacity to ramp up production and offset any loss of Russian oil exports in global market. But if they did, the world would have no buffer to rely on if there were an oil shock caused by, say, conflict in the Middle East — and prices could skyrocket. 'Removing that spare capacity would be akin to riding a bike with no shock absorbers,'' Tompkins and Peach wrote. The Russian economy has been resilient After Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and its allies slammed Russia with sanctions. Among other things, the U.S. froze the assets of Russia's central bank and barred some Russian banks from using a key international payments system run by Belgium. With its allies from the Group of Seven rich nations, it also capped the price that importers could pay for Russian oil. The sanctions were expected to crush the Russian economy, but they didn't. Putin put Russia on a wartime budget, and high defense spending kept unemployment low. Military recruits were given big sign-up bonuses and the families of the fallen received death benefits, pumping income into some of Russia's poorer regions. To keep its oil sales going, Russia deployed "shadow fleets,'' hundreds of aging tankers of uncertain ownership and dodgy safety practices that delivered oil priced above the G7 price cap. 'The experience of the G7 oil price cap against Russia showed how challenging the enforcement of measures against the Russian oil trade can be,' Mulder said. Last year, the Russian economy grew 4.1%, according to the International Monetary Fund. But strains are showing, partly because Putin's war has made Russia a pariah to foreign investors. The IMF forecasts growth will decelerate to 1.5% this year, and last month the Russian economy minister warned the country is "on the brink of going into a recession.'' Trump's tariffs could increase the pressure, in part by driving down Russia's energy exports — and the revenue the Russian government collects from an energy tax. Tariffs are mostly untried as a diplomatic lever 'To my knowledge, tariffs have never been applied as an explicit anti-aggression measure,' said Mulder, author of a 2022 history of economic sanctions. "I am skeptical that the secondary tariffs threat will be effective.'' For one thing, he said, it's unclear whether Trump will actually impose them after 50 days. The president has repeatedly announced tariffs against other countries, and then sometimes suspended or tweaked them. For another, the secondary tariffs would target countries — namely China and India — that might have some sway in Moscow. 'The United States needs cooperation and collaboration to bring Russia to the negotiating table,' said Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute. "Threatening to harm the actors who actually have leverage over Moscow may backfire.''
Hamilton Spectator
an hour ago
- Hamilton Spectator
New trade deal with the U.S. likely to include tariffs, Mark Carney says
OTTAWA—A trade deal with the United States is unlikely without some level of tariffs, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday. 'There's not a lot of evidence right now that agreements, negotiations with the Americans, for any country or any jurisdiction to have an agreement without tariffs,' he told reporters in French ahead of a cabinet meeting to discuss trade negotiations. His comments came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the letters he sent to Carney and other world leaders about new tariff rates are 'the deals.' 'The deals are made. There are no deals to make,' Trump said during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. 'They would like to do a different kind of a deal and we are always open to talking.' In the letter sent to Canada Thursday night, Trump threatened to unilaterally impose a 35-per-cent tariff on imports from Canada by Aug. 1, pushing back a deal deadline previously set for July 21. A White House official later suggested that the new tariff would only apply to goods that already face a 25 per cent tariff, which would exempt many goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, although they indicated no decision was final. On Tuesday, Carney said his goal is to 'stabilize' the situation for Canada, describing the current tariff situation as 'almost free trade' between the neighbouring countries. Previously, Trump's envoy to Canada told the Star that American officials have asserted in negotiations that some level of tariffs on Canadian products is the new normal . Carney will also be convening an emergency first ministers' meeting in Huntsville before the start of the annual premiers' gathering on July 22.
