logo
Can Ishiba hold on after election loss as Japan's political crisis deepens amid US tariff threats?

Can Ishiba hold on after election loss as Japan's political crisis deepens amid US tariff threats?

First Post2 days ago
Japan is in political flux after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition lost its upper house majority for the first time in decades. With rising inflation, internal party unrest, and looming US tariffs, Ishiba vows to stay — but opposition parties are circling, and a far-right populist wave is gaining ground. Can his government survive? read more
Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends a press conference at the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Tokyo on July 21, 2025, the day after the prime minister's coalition lost its upper house majority. File Image/Pool via Reuters
Japan's political leadership is facing turmoil as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition suffered a defeat in the recent upper house elections.
With mounting pressure from opposition, growing dissatisfaction within his own party, and a looming trade standoff with the United States, Ishiba is now contending with the most turbulent phase of his premiership since taking office last October.
The results from Sunday's election dealt a substantial blow to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Together, the two parties secured only 47 seats in the 248-member upper house — falling short of the 50-seat threshold required to retain a majority.
Half the seats were contested in this round. This outcome means the coalition now lacks a majority in both chambers of the Japanese Diet, having already lost control of the more influential lower house during the October elections last year.
Shigeru Ishiba, Japanese Prime Minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), places a red paper rose on the name of an elected candidate at the LDP headquarters, on the day of Upper House election, in Tokyo, Japan, July 20, 2025. File Image/Pool via Reuters
The loss is historic. For the first time since the LDP's founding in 1955, a sitting prime minister from the party is governing without holding a majority in at least one chamber of parliament.
This result comes on the heels of widespread voter frustration over rising consumer costs, stagnant wage growth, and the government's perceived failure to provide adequate relief.
Despite the election loss, Ishiba has insisted on staying in office. Speaking to reporters, he said, 'I will stay in office and do everything in my power to chart a path toward resolving these challenges.'
He also noted that he intends to engage directly with US President Donald Trump to secure a trade agreement before the impending August 1 deadline for additional tariffs.
In a separate statement to NHK, Ishiba acknowledged the public sentiment behind the election outcome: 'That's right. It's a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously.'
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Why Ishiba lost his majority
Economic concerns were at the heart of voter discontent. Over the past year, households have been squeezed by rising prices across essential commodities, including Japan's staple grain — rice.
Public frustration has only increased by declining real wages and the government's inability to implement effective policies to counter inflationary pressure.
The prime minister expressed awareness of these concerns. 'While I painfully feel my serious responsibility over the election results, I believe I must also fulfill my responsibility I bear for the country and the people so as not to cause politics to stall or go adrift,' he said.
Ishiba's administration has so far resisted calls to reduce the consumption tax, despite growing popular demand and opposition campaigning centered on such relief.
'Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes,' said David Boling of Eurasia Group. 'Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.'
In contrast, rival parties have pledged increased social welfare spending and tax cuts. This strategy helped them win votes, especially among economically strained demographics.
Adding further strain to the economic outlook is the concern surrounding Japan's public debt, already the largest in the world.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
The LDP has been advocating fiscal restraint amid a jittery government bond market, where investor confidence has been slipping.
Internal dissent within the LDP
While Ishiba remains publicly committed to continuing as prime minister, dissatisfaction is growing within the ranks of his own party. Several senior figures have reportedly questioned his leadership following the election outcome.
Among them is former Prime Minister Taro Aso, a prominent faction leader within the LDP, who was quoted by TV Asahi as saying he 'couldn't accept' Ishiba staying on as leader.
Local media reports suggest that senior LDP members met on Sunday evening to discuss the possibility of Ishiba stepping down.
According to the Sankei newspaper, the meeting reflected serious concerns about the future of the party's governance under his leadership.
When asked about these internal calls for his resignation, Ishiba said: 'It is natural that there are various opinions within the party.'
Although the LDP remains the largest party in parliament, its inability to pass legislation unilaterally will likely require negotiation with the fragmented opposition.
Analysts believe Ishiba may now have to build support for individual policies through ad hoc alliances in order to keep the government functioning.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
How Opposition is reacting
The electoral results provided a boost to opposition parties. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), led by Yoshihiko Noda, secured 22 seats in the upper house, bringing its total to 37.
Following the vote, Noda announced that he was considering introducing a no-confidence motion against the Ishiba government, arguing that the election outcome demonstrated a lack of public trust in the current leadership.
The centre-right Democratic Party for the People also increased its standing, finishing with 22 seats.
However, despite the gains made by individual parties, the broader opposition remains fragmented across roughly a dozen parties, making it difficult to form a cohesive alternative to the ruling coalition.
Any attempt to topple Ishiba's government through a no-confidence vote would need broad support from across these disparate groups, a scenario that currently appears unlikely.
What about Sanseito
While the traditional parties battled for control, the election also saw a dramatic rise in support for the far-right Sanseito party.
Founded during the Covid-19 pandemic, the party grew its influence through online platforms like YouTube, often promoting conspiracy theories related to vaccines and elite global networks.
Sanseito increased its representation from one seat to 15, becoming one of the most notable political stories of the election.
Their 'Japanese First' slogan and strong anti-immigration rhetoric struck a chord with disillusioned voters who felt neglected by mainstream political discourse.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Party leader Sohei Kamiya, a former supermarket manager and English teacher, has previously cited European right-wing movements like Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the UK's Reform Party as inspiration for Sanseito's political model.
Supporters of Sanseito often express concerns about immigration and cultural erosion.
One voter, 25-year-old graduate student Yu Nagai, told AFP: 'I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners. When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected.'
Although foreign-born residents make up only about 3 per cent of Japan's population, a record 3.8 million foreigners now live in the country.
The influx — boosted by tourism and labour shortages — has sparked increased visibility and debate around immigration policy, especially in urban centres.
How Trump's tariff threats play into this
The most pressing foreign policy issue facing Ishiba's government is the ongoing trade standoff with the United States.
With a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese automobiles set to come into effect on August 1, the urgency to strike a mutually beneficial deal with Washington has become paramount.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Ishiba has stated that he hopes to meet with US President Donald Trump soon to resolve the matter.
'We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States … we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realising our national interests,' Ishiba told TV Tokyo.
The economic implications of the proposed tariffs are significant. Japan's automobile sector, which comprises roughly 8 per cent of the national workforce, has already begun to feel the strain.
Exports to the US have dropped sharply, fuelling concerns of an impending recession.
Japan's chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa has made multiple trips to Washington in recent months. His latest visit, which began Monday morning, is his eighth in the past three months.
The US administration has voiced its displeasure with Japan's trade practices, particularly over what it perceives as barriers to American goods such as rice and cars.
Trump has also criticised the lack of meaningful progress in negotiations, despite Japan's ongoing grain shortages.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Also Watch:
With inputs from agencies
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Japanese PM Ishiba denies reports of resignation after poll setback
Japanese PM Ishiba denies reports of resignation after poll setback

Business Standard

time13 minutes ago

  • Business Standard

Japanese PM Ishiba denies reports of resignation after poll setback

By Yoshiaki Nohara and Erica Yokoyama Embattled Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba denied media reports that said he is set to announce his resignation soon following Sunday's historic electoral setback. There's no truth to those reports, Ishiba said after he met with his predecessors and ruling party heavyweights Yoshihide Suga, Taro Aso and Fumio Kishida on Wednesday afternoon. Ishiba said they didn't discuss whether he will stay on or step down. The group agreed to approach the Liberal Democratic Party's current state with a strong sense of urgency and avoid a split within the party, according to Hiroshi Moriyama, the LDP's Secretary-General who also attended the meeting. The Yomiuri said Ishiba decided that he can now take responsibility over the upper house election result, because there was progress made on an issue of major concern. The yen weakened to as much as 147.20 against the dollar following the initial reports regarding Ishiba's intention to resign, though it pared some of those losses shortly after. The Sankei newspaper said that Ishiba will be making a decision on whether he stays in late August given a series of commitments earlier in the month, and if he steps down a new LDP leader will be elected around September. For that person to then be elected prime minister in parliament, the ruling coalition would need some level of support from opposition parties. 'What this means is that we're sort of entering a period of speculation as to who's going to be the next leader,' said William Chou, Deputy Director, Japan Chair at Hudson Institute. 'Right now it's — there's just a lot of speculation.' Ishiba and his ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house election, meaning that the LDP is now ruling without a majority in either chamber for the first time since its founding in 1955. The prime minister has cited the trade talks as one of the reasons why he needs to stay on, but an agreement with the US would seemingly clear the way for him to step down. Following the election loss, support for Ishiba's administration has plunged with a major poll showing his approval rate slightly above 20 per cent, a level that's historically been considered dangerously low for an administration to continue.

Trump announces trade deal with Japan, Philippines
Trump announces trade deal with Japan, Philippines

Fibre2Fashion

time16 minutes ago

  • Fibre2Fashion

Trump announces trade deal with Japan, Philippines

US President Donald Trump has announced a trade framework with Japan, imposing a 15-per cent reciprocal tariff on goods imported from the latter. 'We just completed a massive Deal with Japan, perhaps the largest Deal ever made. Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90 per cent of the Profits,' Trump posted on his social networking platform Truth Social. President Donald Trump has announced a trade framework with Japan, imposing a 15-per cent reciprocal tariff on goods imported from the US. Japan will invest $550 into the US, which will receive 90 per cent of the profits, Trump posted on Truth Social. He also announced a trade deal with the Philippines that would impose a tariff of 19 per cent on its goods, while US items would face no tariffs. 'This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs—There has never been anything like it,' he noted. The United States 'will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan,' he added. Japan would open its economy to American autos and rice, the President's post said. The 15-per cent tariff on goods imported from Japan is less than the 25-per cent rate that Trump, in a recent letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, said would be levied beginning August 1. Important details of the deal, however, remained unclear from his social media post. Trump also announced a trade framework with the Philippines that would impose a tariff of 19 per cent on its goods, while American products exported to that country would face no tariffs. He also reaffirmed his 19-per cent tariffs on Indonesia. The United States ran a $69.4 billion trade imbalance on goods with Japan last year, according to the US Census Bureau. It had a trade imbalance of $17.9 billion with Indonesia and an imbalance of $4.9 billion with the Philippines. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

Airport Firm GMR mulls rupee-bond sale of Rs 5,000 crore
Airport Firm GMR mulls rupee-bond sale of Rs 5,000 crore

Time of India

time30 minutes ago

  • Time of India

Airport Firm GMR mulls rupee-bond sale of Rs 5,000 crore

GMR Airports Ltd . is considering a Rs 5,000 crore ($579 million) local-currency bond sale, according to people familiar with the matter, in what could be a record rupee issuance for India's second-largest private airport operator. The New Delhi-based company is considering to raise the funds through a note due in 18-months to three years and will use the proceeds to refinance existing debt, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private. The firm may aim to price the securities at about 10.5%, the person said. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category healthcare Artificial Intelligence Healthcare Digital Marketing Operations Management Design Thinking Data Analytics Data Science Data Science Project Management Product Management Degree Technology Public Policy Cybersecurity MCA PGDM Finance MBA Others CXO Leadership Management others Skills you'll gain: Duration: 11 Months IIM Lucknow CERT-IIML Healthcare Management India Starts on undefined Get Details by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like A genetic disorder that is damaging his organs. Help my son Donate For Health Donate Now A representative for GMR Airports didn't respond to an email seeking comments. Bonds Corner Powered By Airport Firm GMR mulls rupee-bond sale of Rs 5,000 crore GMR Airports Ltd. is considering a Rs 5,000 crore ($579 million) local-currency bond sale, according to people familiar with the matter, in what could be a record rupee issuance for India's second-largest private airport operator. Buyers flee Japanese bonds as political, fiscal risks rise India bonds little changed as traders await fresh cues India's corporate bond market booms: Record Rs 10 trillion raised in corporate bonds in 2025, says Rajkumar Subramanian of PL Wealth India bonds flat as traders look ahead to RBI policy; liquidity ebbs Browse all Bonds News with The Economic Times earlier reported the company is looking to raise 57 billion rupees. The company is planning to tap the market as a cumulative 100-basis-point reduction by the central bank this year brings down borrowing costs. The fundraising underscores growth prospects for India's aviation sector and comes at a time when GMR is looking to expand its footprint in the country. Live Events GMR, along with the country's largest airport operator Adani Airport Holdings Ltd., is expected to be among the top contenders as the government looks to privatize 11 airports. If the deal goes through, it will be GMR's largest-ever rupee offering, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has three local-currency bonds amounting to 50 billion rupees maturing next year. Care Ratings last month upgraded GMR Airports' loans and bonds to A from BBB+ and expects the firm's business to be supported by favorable outlook for the airport sector. GMR's unit Delhi International Airport Ltd. is also planning to issue 10 billion rupees worth of bonds, according to people familiar with the matter.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store