Almost 15,000 properties could be damaged by floods in next 35 years
Photo:
RNZ / Anan Zaki
A report prepared for the government says 14,500 properties worth $12.9 billion could be expected to experience at least one damaging flood by 2060.
The country should expect the equivalent of
last month's Tasman District floods
"basically every year", according to the author, with between 300 and 400 homes a year seeing "significant damage" from water reaching at least 30cm above the floorboards.
Read the full report
here
.
"While you're not going to have Cyclone Gabrielle events [every year], you are going to have a steady stream of people who are going to get hit," said Dr Belinda Storey of consultancy Climate Sigma, which prepared the modelling.
"Those properties are going to be the ones that, if we don't take some action, when they get damaged,
they will get damaged again
."
"They are going to get hit again, because they are at the bottom of the flood plain," she said.
"My personal view is that this report reinforces that where properties are significantly damaged, we shouldn't be rebuilding them."
Climate Sigma managing director Belinda Storey.
Photo:
Supplied / Climate Sigma
The estimates are essentially the cost of doing nothing to limit the number of homes at risk from flooding as climate change makes weather events more severe.
The government has been considering ways to
limit its own spending on climate and weather-related clean-ups
, with government MPs saying taxpayers cannot afford to keep bailing out flood-hit residents from cyclones such as Gabrielle and Hale on a regular basis.
That may mean reconsidering the future of communities in places that "should never have been built on".
However, researchers have warned for years that it will be very difficult for the government to avoid being pressured into buy-outs when faced with the reality of insurance companies retreating, and people losing their homes.
The government is working on a long-awaited climate adaptation bill to set out how communities, individuals and businesses will respond.
An independent expert panel has recommended that homeowners whose houses are flooded or damaged by weather events
should not expect buy-outs
, and individuals should be responsible for knowing the risks and making their own decisions about whether to move away from high-risk areas.
The panel suggested a transition period of 20 years before people are on their own when it comes to property losses, to provide people with time to make decisions and spread any cost.
The panel did not recommend any coordinated retreat from at-risk areas and critics called the recommendations "unworkable".
A dehumidifier runs inside a home that was drenched by flooding in Tasman last month.
Photo:
RNZ/Marika Khabazi
Climate Sigma carried out new modelling to go with the report, looking at expected losses to residential homes over the 35 years from 2026 to 2060.
It found that, by the end of the period, 2200 properties worth $1.8 billion would have experienced a flood causing at least 80 percent damage to the house, which it equated to water reaching at least 3 metres above the ground floor.
Five thousand and three hundred homes would have experienced a flood damaging at least half the house, involving water reaching at least 1.2 metres above the ground floor.
Fourteen and a half thousand properties worth $12.9 billion would have experienced at least 20 percent damage to the property, from water reaching at least 30 centimetres above the ground floor.
The biggest number of affected homes - 4500 - was in the Auckland region.
However, when the study looked at the number of houses in line for the worst, 80 percent damage (and flood waters over 3m), the Waikato region had the most homes affected, with 300 compared to Auckland's 200.
Dr Storey said even 10cm-deep flooding can cause serious damage, however only flooding of 30cm or higher was counted in the report.
"Even if you get 10cm of water into your house from floodwater, that can be very disruptive because flood waters almost always include sewage," she said.
About two thirds of the estimated damage was from hazards that already exist, while the final third was because of climate change worsening over those 35 years.
"We already have a significant number of houses at risk," said Storey. "And the probability of flooding inland is approximately doubling in the next thirty years."
Today's risk already includes the impact of around 1°Celsius of global heating, which boosts how much water the atmosphere can hold and worsens heavy rain and flooding.
"It has taken us 170 years to reach the first 1°C and we're going to reach the next 1°C in 30 years, and the next 1°C is going to be about a doubling of the probability [of flooding inland]," said Dr Storey.
Kaipara's Kaihu River, north of Dargaville, flooded during Cyclone Gabrielle.
Photo:
Kaipara District Council / Supplied
She said the total number of homes affected was smaller than she expected when starting the process, given almost 200,000 New Zealand houses are in flood plains.
"Only a small proportion is likely to be hit at a significant enough level that they would expect the government to intervene," she said.
"A lot of our flood plains are pretty broad and shallow ... [and] a lot of houses might be just high enough with just enough first floor height that they don't get damaged when a flood comes through."
Storey said the figure of 14,500 houses which were expected to be significantly damaged did not mean communities could defend that number of properties to fix the problem. They would need to consider around three times that number, because roughly 45,000 houses in the at-risk category have a 30 percent chance of being hit in next 35 years.
"You can't just defend 14,500 houses and say we've fixed that problem, because you don't know which ones are going to get hit."
Successive governments have considered introducing measures, including making it harder to build in flood zones, improving risk information, and setting out what happens when an uninsured property floods - or when it's time to abandon land.
But no legislation has yet made it to Parliament. A new law has been promised by the end of this year.
Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero
,
a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
RNZ News
35 minutes ago
- RNZ News
Home build dream shattered after Waikato business hacked and woman launders couple's $150k
By Belinda Feek, Open Justice reporter of Sophie Winchester-Krishan outside the Hamilton District Court after being sentenced on three charges of money laundering. Photo: NZME / Open Justice / Belinda Feek A woman's bank account went from a balance of 5c to almost $150,000 overnight - but it was not her money. Instead, it was the money of a couple who were in the process of building their dream home and had fallen prey to hackers. Sophie Mareta Moerangi Winchester-Krishan was the middleman in the scam, where her bank account was used to deposit the funds and she then transferred them to offshore accounts. The 66-year-old, who was charged with three counts of money-laundering as a result, was paid $5000 for her role in the scam. She was recently sentenced in Hamilton District Court, where the couple spoke of their building dream being shattered and how they had been left with "a lifetime of loss and heartache". It wasn't made clear in court exactly how Winchester-Krishan and the scammers first connected. Her defence lawyer argued Winchester-Krishan had been so keen to get back into work that she ignored what might have been red flags. Those red flags included queries by Kiwibank about the suspicious transactions and her account being briefly frozen. Despite this, she assured the bank that the transactions were legitimate. Now, the case has earned caution from Netsafe, which warned it was difficult to recover money in these events and urged people to be sceptical when being told a company's invoice details had changed. The court heard that in August 2021, the email account of a Waikato-based building firm was hacked. The hackers were able to access the company's client database and then created an email with a similar domain name. They then sent the couple an email stating the company was having difficulty with its regular bank and asked them to direct their next payment into a Kiwibank account. The victims later discovered the account belonged to Winchester-Krishan and, before the transfer, it had a balance of 5c. The money was transferred over two days. One payment was $100,000 - the ASB Bank's daily transfer limit - followed by a second transfer of $54,263.01. By the morning of 16 August 2021, the full amount had made its way into Winchester-Krishan's account. She then sent some of the funds to an account in Australia, after receiving payment instructions from an "almost certainly fictitious overseas doctor", the court heard. Kiwibank then contacted her to alert her to a "suspicious transaction" and froze her bank account. Winchester-Krishan later told Kiwibank the transaction was genuine and the money was released. She then transferred almost $30,000 to an account in the US. Kiwibank contacted her about the suspicious account and, again, Winchester-Krishan confirmed it was genuine. Later that same day, she transferred $66,280.77 to a different US bank account. Over two days, Winchester-Krishan transferred just under $150,000 of the couple's money into offshore bank accounts. She kept $5000 as payment. In a statement to the court, the woman said she and her husband bought a piece of land to build their dream home in September 2020. Filled with excitement, they visited the section with their newborn baby in July 2021, after the concrete had been poured. A month later, she received the fake email from the "building company", asking for the $154,263.01 instalment. She duly paid it into what she was told was the company's Kiwibank account. Shortly afterwards, she was informed that the company's computer system had been hacked and their money was gone. "In a matter of seconds, our whole world changed," she told the court. She said their plan to build their dream home had been shattered. Their excitement turned to stress and worry, which was compounded by the fact that she had worked in IT for 17 years. She was left asking herself, "How could I let this happen to us?" The woman said she was so stressed that she was no longer able to produce milk to breastfeed her daughter. "The opportunity to bond [with her] was taken away from me," she said. The woman then developed a chronic illness that she would never fully recover from. She and her husband ended up having to walk away from the building project. "It's hard to believe all this happened for the offender to gain $5000, and it has left us with a lifetime of loss and heartache." Crown solicitor James Lewis characterised Winchester-Krishan's offending as "a sequence of reckless acts carried out by the defendant for financial gain". "The devastating impacts on the victim and their family include life-altering consequences," Lewis said. "The defendant should have heard and seen the alarm bells. "She was being asked to transfer large sums of money to offshore accounts by people she hardly knew. "She was being questioned by the bank about their concerns... but nevertheless, it still happened." He urged the judge not to issue any discount for Winchester-Krishan's previous good character, given her previous dishonesty convictions, and pushed for a jail term or at least home detention. Defence counsel Martin Dillon said his client's remorse was genuine. While she had defended the charge at trial, he said she had only wanted to challenge whether she was reckless in transferring the money overseas. Sophie Winchester-Krishan transferred the couple's money to a number of offshore accounts in August 2021. Photo: NZME / Open Justice / Belinda Feek "She accepts that she was essentially blinded by the opportunity of an online job being given to her," Dillon said. "She did close her mind or eyes to what might have been red flags... she was not motivated by financial gain... but instead of getting back into the workforce and working again, albeit remotely from home." He suggested Winchester-Krishan moved the money within 24 hours, but Judge Arthur Tompkins disagreed. "That's not quite right," the judge said. "The money arrived and then there were about three days' worth of interactions with the bank. "This is not money-laundering where money arrives and it's flicked on immediately. "Winchester-Krishan had to visit the bank in person and then field inquiries from the bank as to the suspicious transaction, which she confirmed was a genuine payment." The judge said the transaction was clearly suspicious, as it was for a "fictitious orphanage in Turkey" with a different "tale" about where the money was going. Dillon also submitted that Winchester-Krishan had co-operated with police in their investigation and was assessed as a low risk of re-offending. He suggested that an end sentence of community detention and supervision was appropriate. Judge Tompkins said, while Winchester-Krishan's offending was not premeditated, she made "minimal" inquiries about where the money had come from, when it landed in her account. "Particularly, when the bank alerted her to suspicious transactions, she took some trouble to satisfy the bank that the transactions she sought to make were not suspicious." After considering all of the submissions, Judge Tompkins found that home detention was the most appropriate sentence and imposed a term of 10 months. Winchester-Krishan has spent some of the $5000 she was paid, but police were about to claw back $1400 of it. However, the full amount the couple lost was not being sought through the court. NZME understood the victims were trying to recover it through other avenues. Netsafe chief online safety officer Sean Lyons said business email compromise (BEC) scams were "a quiet kind of attack". "That's part of what makes it effective. "The email might come from a familiar name. The invoice might match work that's genuinely been done - it lands in the inbox at just the right time. "All of that lowers the chances anyone will pause and question it." However, BEC scams can hit from both sides, he said. A business might unknowingly send a doctored invoice from a compromised account or a customer might receive what looks like a routine bill from a supplier they trust. "Either way, the money ends up in the hands of criminals and it's often very difficult to recover." Lyons said, for businesses, email security was key, while for customers it paid to be "sceptical". "If payment details suddenly change or something feels slightly off, don't reply to the email. "Instead, contact the business directly, using a phone number or address you already know." * This story originally appeared in the New Zealand Herald.
RNZ News
2 hours ago
- RNZ News
Formula E, FIA poised for long-term contract extension
New Zealand Formula E drivers Mitch Evans and Nick Cassidy. Photo: Paulo Maria / AFP Formula E is poised to extend an exclusive deal with motorsport's world governing body that will ensure it remains the only all-electric racing series sanctioned by the FIA for decades to come. Majority owned since last year by telecoms company Liberty Global, Formula E began in 2014 with a 25-year licence. FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem let slip to reporters during last weekend's British Formula One Grand Prix that an extension to the Formula E contract was done and "would come up soon". Before the season's penultimate round in Berlin, Formula E chief executive Jeff Dodds told Reuters on Friday there was nothing official, but to expect various announcements at the London season-ender this month. Formula One will start a new engine era next year, with a 50/50 split between combustion and electric, but Ben Sulayem has said the Liberty Media-owned sport could go back to noisy V8 engines by 2029. "If they [F1] choose to keep using it [the 2026 engine], we'll choose to keep talking about the fact that they like the [electric] technology so much, they integrate it into their race cars," Dodds said. "If they choose to go back to V8s, then we would absolutely leverage the fact that we would then be the only electric championship and everything that that means." Formula E will likely be reduced from 11 to 10 teams next season, after the withdrawal of Formula One champions McLaren to focus on endurance racing. McLaren had sought a new owner for the team, but Dodds said the timeframe was too tight for interested parties and it would revert to Formula E, barring a late twist. "As it stand, unless something changes - and I never say never in Formula E or motorsport - their last race would be London," he added. "The team slot would vacate, which means the licence would revert to us, and then we have a lot of other interest in joining the championship. "The chance of somebody joining for one year of Gen3 is unlikely, but the chance of somebody coming in and starting to develop with a future coming in for Gen4 is much more likely." Formula E will be in the last year of its Gen3 era next season, with the more powerful and faster Gen4 car then coming in for 2026/27. Nissan's British driver Oliver Rowland can clinch the 2024/25 championship in the Berlin doubleheader this weekend and would be the series' 10th different champion in 11 seasons. New Zealand's Nick Cassidy is currently eighth in the championship standings, while fellow Kiwi Mitch Evans is 18th. Both drivers are in the Jaguar TCS Racing Team. - Reuters
RNZ News
6 hours ago
- RNZ News
Hospitality, accommodation providers welcome rugby, football fans
The All Blacks, Black Ferns and Wellington Phoenix are doing their bit to help the capital's hospitality sector during a tough winter of trading. Photo: Jack Grant/ActionPress Wellington's hospitality sector is welcoming today's sold-out Black Ferns and All Blacks double-header, in the midst of an extremely quiet winter that some say is the worst since the pandemic. Both the rugby and next weekend's Wellington Phoenix versus Wrexham AFC football fixture were "driving strong bookings across the city", said Hospitality New Zealand chief executive Steve Armitage, with the capital's venues gearing up for some of their busiest days of the season. Winter had been a "mixed bag for many" in the capital he added, and the sector was "looking forward to seeing Wellington's bars, restaurants and cafes buzzing this weekend" as major events bring people into the city. A Wellington hotelier said an uptick in bookings driven by the rugby were a "welcome change". Local Hospitality NZ branch president Manjit Singh, also the general manager of Quest on Johnston, said accomodation providers' revenue was probably down by more than 40 percent on 2023, and 55 percent down on the pre-pandemic years. "Winter has been pretty hard to be honest. There's been hardly any events. Travel in the corporate and the government sector has been very minimal, especially the government sector. "So it's been fairly slim pickings, low average occupancy, extremely low rates - an average rate in the heart of the city at the moment is about, you know, $120 to $150. "So we've been seeing lower occupancy and much lower average room rates as well." US actors and Wrexham owners Rob McElhenney, left, and Ryan Reynolds celebrate after their team won through to the English Football League after beating Boreham Wood, on 22 April, 2023. Photo: AFP This weekend was markedly different however, she said, although overall rates were still down by a third. "We're seeing strong bookings, increased room rates and that electric energy that only comes with major events. After a long time, the Quest on Johnston is full tonight and tomorrow and there has been an increase in rates. I'm hearing that from a lot of our members as well." Armitage said tonight's tests and next Saturday's football were the kind of drawcard events that Wellington needed. "[They] are a real boost for the sector and show just how important a solid events calendar is to Wellington's economic and social vibrancy. "It's always great to have something that encourages people to head out, catch up with friends, and support local." Singh agreed, but said more drawcard events were needed. "Ideally, we need to have them one after the other so we can continue to keep that momentum building." She said the rugby was good for the sector's bottom line and a much-needed morale boost for workers, with hospitality in an "existing and surviving" mode. "You need the energy of weekends like this and then we can feel that, yes, we're part of something that's greater and it's buzzing. It feels good to be a part of that." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
