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Ola Electric surges on D-St, but analysts still advise caution

Ola Electric surges on D-St, but analysts still advise caution

Time of India11 hours ago
Shares of
electric two-wheeler
maker
Ola Electric Mobility
rallied about 20 per cent on Monday, the biggest single-day move in eight months, after the company's first-quarter results were better-than-expected. The stock is best suited for high-risk traders and investors, as analysts warn of continued sharp price swings in months ahead. Ola ended at ₹47.7 on Monday, up 19.75 per cent , after hitting a fresh 52-week low of ₹39.6.
'
Ola Electric
's Q1 shows a sharp operational turnaround—losses narrowed from ₹870 crore to ₹428 crore, gross margins hit a record 25.6 per cent , and the auto segment turned Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization)-positive in June,' said Jahol Prajapati, research analyst at
Samco Securities
.
Its revenue from operations also rose to ₹828 crore in the June quarter from ₹611 crore in the previous quarter. However, it was down almost 50 per cent from the same period a year ago. 'The company's bullish forecast of 35-40 per cent margins and upcoming ramp-up of new products further renewed interest in the stock,' said Sagar Shetty, research analyst, StoxBox. 'The growth during the quarter was largely supported by the successful launch of its Gen 3 scooters, aiding the company to maintain accretive margins.'
The company said in an exchange filing that it expects to sell between 325,000 and 375,000 vehicles and generate revenue of ₹4,200-₹4,700 crore for FY26. Ola shares are down around 48 per cent since their debut in August 2024. As the stock declined, retail investors increased their stakes in the company. The percentage of retail shareholders holding less than ₹2 lakh in the company has increased to 12 per cent in the March quarter from 4.45 per cent at the time of listing. Shetty said that Ola continues to cede significant market share to established players and has a track record of overly optimistic guidance.
'We recommend investors maintain a cautious approach and suggest that they wait to see how the second quarter unfolds in terms of sales and overall performance,' he said. Prajapati said Ola is building a 'credible profitability' story, on account of continued cost discipline, improving warranty dynamics, and an FY26 target of 35-40 per cent gross margins. 'For investors with a high-risk appetite, it's a bold EV play on vertical integration. Conservative investors might still prefer steadier names like TVS or Bajaj for now,' he said.
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HSBC raises Ola Electric target price to Rs 49 but sticks with hold rating. What's behind the caution?
HSBC raises Ola Electric target price to Rs 49 but sticks with hold rating. What's behind the caution?

Economic Times

time5 hours ago

  • Economic Times

HSBC raises Ola Electric target price to Rs 49 but sticks with hold rating. What's behind the caution?

HSBC raised Ola Electric's target price to ₹49 after a surprise gross margin beat in Q1FY26. However, the brokerage remains cautious due to long-term risks linked to PLI eligibility and battery manufacturing challenges. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Execution gains, but structural concerns remain Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Valuation, outlook, and risks HSBC Global Research has raised its target price on Ola Electric Mobility to Rs 49 from Rs 45, while maintaining a "hold" rating on the stock following a better-than-expected gross margin performance in the company's first-quarter results. The brokerage said it remains cautious about long-term margin headwinds stemming from uncertainties around government incentives for battery revised target implies a modest 4% upside from current levels, with HSBC saying the valuation "reflects all improvements" after the electric vehicle maker's 25.8% gross margin in Q1FY26 surprised positively, well above its estimate of 19%.'After multiple misses, punchy gross margin expansion in 1Q was a positive surprise,' HSBC brokerage attributed the margin beat primarily to an 11% cost saving from Ola's new Gen-3 scooter platform, which drove a 12-percentage-point improvement quarter-on-quarter. HSBC expects further gross margin expansion of about 4 percentage points in Q2 as the older Gen-2 models, which accounted for 20% of Q1 sales, phase out and production-linked incentive (PLI) benefits potentially begin to Electric achieved EBITDA breakeven in its auto business in June, with management expecting positive EBITDA in the current quarter. The company has ramped up internal efficiencies by bringing motor production in-house, redesigning battery packs, and integrating its motor control units (MCUs), which also reduced wiring these advances, HSBC flagged risks to Ola's battery cell operations. The company has started manufacturing 4680-format cells and plans to expand capacity from 1.4GWh to 5GWh by FY27. However, the brokerage warned that Ola may miss key manufacturing milestones required to qualify for PLI benefits, potentially attracting penalties of around Rs 1,000 crore.'Yet [we are] concerned that cell business might not be eligible for PLI benefit, weighing down longer-term margin,' HSBC lack of immediate PLI approval for the Gen-3 scooters is also a factor. Although the company expects to secure these benefits by the second quarter of FY26, HSBC notes that the margin impact, an estimated 2–4% uplift, remains contingent on regulatory Electric's shares were trading 5.3% lower at Rs 44.61 on the BSE as of Tuesday afternoon, even as the stock remains up 2.4% over the last year. HSBC said the stock is currently trading at 3.8x FY26 estimated EV/sales, compared with 3.2x for TVS Motor and 4.1x for Bajaj brokerage values Ola using a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a weighted average cost of capital of 10.8%, factoring in increased company-specific risk. Its long-term concerns include stiffening competition, weaker-than-expected EV penetration, and execution challenges in Ola's cell manufacturing business.'We maintain a Hold rating, given lower confidence on company estimates,' the report the stock is trading above its short-term moving averages (5-day to 30-day), but remains below longer-term ones (50-day to 200-day). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60.2, indicating neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains negative at -1.6 and below both its signal and center lines, a bearish signal.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

HSBC raises Ola Electric target price to Rs 49 but sticks with hold rating. What's behind the caution?
HSBC raises Ola Electric target price to Rs 49 but sticks with hold rating. What's behind the caution?

Time of India

time6 hours ago

  • Time of India

HSBC raises Ola Electric target price to Rs 49 but sticks with hold rating. What's behind the caution?

HSBC Global Research has raised its target price on Ola Electric Mobility to Rs 49 from Rs 45, while maintaining a "hold" rating on the stock following a better-than-expected gross margin performance in the company's first-quarter results. The brokerage said it remains cautious about long-term margin headwinds stemming from uncertainties around government incentives for battery manufacturing. The revised target implies a modest 4% upside from current levels, with HSBC saying the valuation "reflects all improvements" after the electric vehicle maker's 25.8% gross margin in Q1FY26 surprised positively, well above its estimate of 19%. 'After multiple misses, punchy gross margin expansion in 1Q was a positive surprise,' HSBC said. The brokerage attributed the margin beat primarily to an 11% cost saving from Ola's new Gen-3 scooter platform, which drove a 12-percentage-point improvement quarter-on-quarter. HSBC expects further gross margin expansion of about 4 percentage points in Q2 as the older Gen-2 models, which accounted for 20% of Q1 sales, phase out and production-linked incentive (PLI) benefits potentially begin to accrue. Execution gains, but structural concerns remain Ola Electric achieved EBITDA breakeven in its auto business in June, with management expecting positive EBITDA in the current quarter. The company has ramped up internal efficiencies by bringing motor production in-house, redesigning battery packs, and integrating its motor control units (MCUs), which also reduced wiring harnesses. Despite these advances, HSBC flagged risks to Ola's battery cell operations. The company has started manufacturing 4680-format cells and plans to expand capacity from 1.4GWh to 5GWh by FY27. However, the brokerage warned that Ola may miss key manufacturing milestones required to qualify for PLI benefits, potentially attracting penalties of around Rs 1,000 crore. 'Yet [we are] concerned that cell business might not be eligible for PLI benefit, weighing down longer-term margin,' HSBC said. The lack of immediate PLI approval for the Gen-3 scooters is also a factor. Although the company expects to secure these benefits by the second quarter of FY26, HSBC notes that the margin impact, an estimated 2–4% uplift, remains contingent on regulatory timelines. Valuation, outlook, and risks Ola Electric's shares were trading 5.3% lower at Rs 44.61 on the BSE as of Tuesday afternoon, even as the stock remains up 2.4% over the last year. HSBC said the stock is currently trading at 3.8x FY26 estimated EV/sales, compared with 3.2x for TVS Motor and 4.1x for Bajaj Auto. The brokerage values Ola using a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a weighted average cost of capital of 10.8%, factoring in increased company-specific risk. Its long-term concerns include stiffening competition, weaker-than-expected EV penetration, and execution challenges in Ola's cell manufacturing business. 'We maintain a Hold rating, given lower confidence on company estimates,' the report said. Technically, the stock is trading above its short-term moving averages (5-day to 30-day), but remains below longer-term ones (50-day to 200-day). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60.2, indicating neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains negative at -1.6 and below both its signal and center lines, a bearish signal. Also read | Ola Electric shares surge over 17% despite posting Rs 428 crore loss in Q1. Here's why ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

Ola Electric's profit push has been ignited. Now, volumes have to follow
Ola Electric's profit push has been ignited. Now, volumes have to follow

Mint

time6 hours ago

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Ola Electric's profit push has been ignited. Now, volumes have to follow

Ola Electric Mobility Ltd's stock jumped 14% in the past two days after its June quarter (Q1FY26) results showed the clearest signs yet of operating discipline. Ola's auto business was Ebitda positive in June helped by stronger volumes, tighter cost control, and early gains from its vertically integrated setup. Q1FY26 consolidated revenues rose 35.5% sequentially to ₹828 crore, while deliveries climbed 32.7%. Gross margin rose to 25.8% in Q1FY26 from 13.8% in Q4FY25, leading to an improvement in Ebitda margin to negative 29% from negative 114% in the same period. Ola expects profitability to sustain and has guided for above 5% FY26 auto segment Ebitda margin after posting negative 11.6% margin in Q1FY26. FY26 vehicle deliveries are pegged at 3.25 lakh–3.75 lakh units, which could be a tall order. Kotak Institutional Equities is baking in 3.10 lakh units in FY26. Ola projects its gross margin to rise further to 35–40% as PLI-linked savings from its Gen-3 scooters kick in. It should be noted that Ola's Q1FY26 volumes declined 46% year-on-year despite the electric vehicle (EV) industry's two-wheeler volumes growing 7%. Kotak has cut its FY26-FY28volume assumptions to the tune of 12-16%, given lower growth assumptions for the EV two-wheeler industry and sustained below expected volume offtake performance. 'An increase in competitive intensity will continue to weigh on the company's market share," said Kotak in a report on 14 July. Moreover, execution risks persist. Ola's motorcycle rollout is still in early stages, with Roadster X in 200 stores and a national launch due by Navratri. While the initial response is positive, scale and further demand are untested. The company plans to launch a new product every quarter over the next two years. Ola plans to spend ₹300 crore over the remaining nine months of FY26, with ₹400–500 crore in free cash flow required to fund the auto business. It expects the auto segment to turn FCF-positive by FY26's end. For its cell business, Ola will invest around ₹1,000 crore to build a 5 GWh facility, which it expects to break even by FY27. Engineering bets continue as Ola's rare-earth-free motors are set to enter production in Q3FY26, with dual-sourced magnets added to reduce supply chain risk. For now, Ola's numbers suggest a turning point. But for this rally to evolve into a rerating, the company will need to show consistency on volumes, margins, and Securities and Capital Markets (India)analysts maintained their 'hold' rating and reckon the current valuation reflects all improvements.

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