Wishful Thinking Won't Solve the US Debt Crisis
A lot of economists aren't much concerned about this. In a new paper, Wendy Edelberg, Benjamin Harris and Louise Sheiner of the Brookings Institution join the ranks of the calmly complacent. Their argument is far from reassuring.
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Democrats already lining up for 2028 presidential race in early voting states
SENECA, S.C. -- The first presidential primary votes won't be cast for another two and a half years. And yet, over the span of 10 days in July, three Democratic presidential prospects are scheduled to campaign in South Carolina. Nearly a half dozen others have made recent pilgrimages to South Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa — states that traditionally host the nation's opening presidential nomination contests. Still other ambitious Democrats are having private conversations with officials on the ground there. The voters in these states are used to seeing presidential contenders months or even years before most of the country, but the political jockeying in 2025 for the 2028 presidential contest appears to be playing out earlier, with more frequency and with less pretense than ever before. California Gov. Gavin Newsom was referred to as a presidential candidate at one stop in his two-day South Carolina tour last week. Voters shouted '2028!' after he insisted he was there simply to strengthen the party ahead of the 2026 midterms. South Carolina has virtually no competitive midterm contests. Term-limited Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who acknowledges he's considering a 2028 bid, will spend two days touring South Carolina this week. He will focus on the state's Black community while drawing an implicit contrast with Newsom on cultural issues, according to excerpts of his planned remarks obtained by The Associated Press. California Congressman Ro Khanna, a progressive aligned with the Bernie Sanders ' wing of the Democratic Party, will target union members and Black voters when he's in the state a few days later with the son of a civil rights leader. And former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is having private conversations with key South Carolina Democrats, including presidential primary kingmaker Rep. Jim Clyburn, in which Emanuel indicated strong interest in a presidential run. That's according to Clyburn himself, who said he's also had direct contact with Beshear and Khanna after appearing alongside Newsom last week and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore in May. 'That's what candidates have to do: position themselves and be ready when lightning strikes,' Clyburn said. The unusually early jockeying is playing out as the Democratic Party struggles to repair its brand, rebuild its message and fill a leadership vacuum after losing the White House and both chambers of Congress in 2024. Democrats are decidedly more optimistic about 2028. Republicans will not have the advantage of incumbency in the next presidential contest; the Constitution bars President Donald Trump from seeking a third term. And the race for the Democratic nomination appears to be wide open, even as 2024 nominee Kamala Harris and running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have left open the possibility of running again. With no clear front-runner, some Democratic operatives believe upwards of 30 high-profile Democrats could ultimately enter the 2028 primary — more than the party's overpacked 2020 field. And as Democrats struggle to stop Trump's power grabs in Washington, some report a real sense of urgency to get the 2028 process started. Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a rising Democratic star, told the AP earlier this year that presidential prospects 'need to be more visible earlier' as party officials look to take cues from a new generation of leaders. 'What freaks most Democrats out is not really understanding who's up next. Like, who's got next?' she said. 'And I think that that is really what people want most; they want their presidential nominee now.' Beshear, Kentucky's 47-year-old two-term governor, is scheduled to make his first visit to South Carolina on political grounds on Wednesday and Thursday. He will promote his appeal among red-state moderates and Black voters in a Thursday speech hosted by the Georgetown County Democrats in a region that voted three times for Trump and has a large Black population. 'Democrats have a huge opportunity to seize the middle and win back the voters who have been increasingly skeptical of the Democratic brand. But it's going to take focus and discipline," Beshear is expected to say, according to speech excerpts obtained by the AP. There are no direct jabs at Newsom in the excerpts, but Beshear is expected to continue drawing contrasts with the California governor, who earlier this year suggested his party went too far in embracing 'woke' priorities. In his prepared remarks, Beshear doesn't shy away from such progressive cultural issues. He will note he made Juneteenth an executive branch holiday for the first time in Kentucky, signed an executive order that prohibits discrimination against state workers for how they wear their hair and ordered the removal of a statue of Jefferson Davis, who served as the president of the Confederacy during the Civil War. 'The current federal administration wants to make diversity a dirty word,' Beshear plans to say. 'They want people to believe that equity means everyone isn't worthy of opportunities.' Already this year, Walz of Minnesota and Moore of Maryland have addressed South Carolina Democrats. Biden Cabinet member Pete Buttigieg, a 2020 presidential candidate, hosted a town hall in Iowa in May. The month before, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker headlined a Democratic fundraiser in New Hampshire. Others are moving more cautiously. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has avoided any early state travel this year, focusing instead on his 2026 reelection. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has also focused largely on her day job. Both would be top-tier presidential candidates should they decide to run. Khanna has been working to build his national profile since before the last election with frequent trips to New Hampshire, among other early voting states. The California congressman is scheduled to host two town-hall style meetings in South Carolina this weekend with Illinois Rep. Jonathan Jackson, the son of civil rights leader the Rev. Jesse Jackson. Khanna casts his lower profile — at least compared to potential competitors like Newsom and Shapiro — as an asset when asked about his party's early 2028 field. 'I think it's very different than in the past when you've had clear defined leaders of the party. I think that's healthy. There is no status quo person," Khanna said. 'My guess is the last thing the party is going to want is more of the same." Newsom spent much of last year denying interest in a presidential run. But with his final term as governor set to expire at the end of next year, his 2028 ambitions are starting to emerge more publicly. During his recent South Carolina tour, Newsom only smiled when voters shouted '2028!' after he referenced his focus on the 2026 midterms. Clyburn said openly what the California governor would not. Appearing with Newsom, Clyburn encouraged local Democrats to be energized by the visits of 'presidential candidates' coming early and often to their state. Newsom looked around, seemingly seeking the object of Clyburn's remark, as the crowd laughed. In an interview afterward, Clyburn said he doesn't have an early favorite in the 2028 Democratic nomination contest. Pritzker headlined a key state fundraiser in New Hampshire in May. And state Democratic leaders are privately encouraging other 2028 prospects to visit the state. Unlike South Carolina, New Hampshire features two competitive House races and a top-tier Senate election next year. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, campaigned Friday in the state with Rep. Chris Pappas, who is expected to represent Democrats on the Senate ballot next fall. In a brief interview, she insisted her only purpose was backing Pappas' campaign. 'I am here to help my friend,' she said. 'I know a lot of people here and I want to put it to use in a good way." It may be early, but some Democratic voters and local officials say they're ready to get the cycle started. Jody Gaulin, the Democratic chair of a deep-red South Carolina county, is hoping the energy that comes along with potential candidates could boost her party's ranks. 'This is exactly what we've been waiting for,' Gaulin said. It's much the same in New Hampshire. Democrat Jane Lescynski, who works at the manufacturing facility Klobuchar toured Friday, had a quick answer when asked her thoughts about the 2028 presidential election. 'I can't wait,' she said.
CNN
3 hours ago
- CNN
GOP infighting over Trump's DOGE cuts to take center stage as deadline looms
Congressional Republicans are launching into their next big legislative fight — this time over DOGE spending cuts for foreign aid and public broadcasting — that risks the wrath of President Donald Trump if they fail. With just days to go before a critical deadline, Trump himself is applying pressure to his party, even dangling the threat of withholding his endorsement to those on the fence about supporting what would be another major win for the White House over Democrats in Congress. Republicans on Capitol Hill are facing intense headwinds, with one of their own chairwomen still working to keep certain programs from the chopping block ahead of a firm July 18 deadline to sign those cuts into law. And that push is being closely watched by the GOP's fiscal hawks, many of whom remain angry at party leaders for forcing them to swallow trillions of dollars in tax cuts earlier this month. Still, GOP leaders believe they will ultimately deliver on the president's demands to claw back $9.4 billion in funds Congress already approved for foreign aid and public broadcasting programs — with Trump in particular leaning heavily on members. Trump's package, which is part of his cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency operation, will need to pass the Senate and the House by Friday, under an obscure presidential budget law used to circumvent the Senate filibuster. The GOP-led Senate is poised to make some changes that could be a tough sell in the House, marking the second time this month they'll be jamming the House on a Trump priority. Trump has made clear he will not tolerate Republican defections on the vote. 'Any Republican that votes to allow this monstrosity to continue broadcasting will not have my support or Endorsement,' the president wrote on Truth Social. Top Republicans, including Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, have been working behind the scenes to adjust the White House's package of cuts, which would claw back $1.1 billion that Congress already approved to local broadcasting stations, including NPR and PBS, as well as global health programs like President George W. Bush's landmark PEPFAR program to fight AIDS. Collins, the powerful Senate spending leader, has strongly opposed the White House's push to rescind $400 million for PEPFAR — a move she said would be 'extraordinarily ill-advised and shortsighted' — as well as funding for maternal and child health programs. The Maine senator, who proved her willingness to buck Trump this month by voting against his sweeping policy agenda, is also up for reelection next November. 'There are some cuts that I can support, but I'm not going to vote to cut global health programs,' Collins told reporters last week. She said she supports much of the funds devoted for public broadcasting, including emergency alert systems and local programming — but made clear she does not support money for all public media, specifically NPR. 'The problem is NPR, which has a decidedly partisan bent,' Collins said. But Collins isn't the only one wanting changes. Senators from rural states, like Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota, told CNN he opposes the current package because of its effects on local radio stations. 'I can't support this. I want to get to 'yes,' but I won't be there until we get the issue resolved with regard to these rural radio stations that take about 90% of their funding through this process,' Rounds told CNN. The South Dakota Republican added that some of his constituents, mainly residents on Native American reservations in his state, will struggle to get access to information with these cuts to rural radio stations. GOP hardliners, however, don't want to see changes to the White House's package, which they already believe is not enough in cuts. Asked about the consequences if his colleagues make changes to the White House's cuts, Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said: 'I'm not going to like it.' House GOP leaders know there are plenty of their hardliner members who would, too, have a problem if Collins and others water down the cuts in the bill. But they believe they will still pass it by Friday — especially if Trump leans in. If it works, Congress will likely see more of these types of moves from the White House. Trump's team, led by budget chief Russ Vought, is attempting to make these cuts through a little-used mechanism that allows the Senate to avoid a filibuster. Trump tried the same tactic — known as a 'rescission' — in his first term, but the Senate ultimately voted the effort down in an embarrassing flop for the president. (Collins voted against that package, which included $15 billion in wide-ranging programs including children's health insurance and housing programs.) Vought and other fiscal hardliners have signaled they hope to deploy rescissions repeatedly in his second term to rein in Congress' spending without Democratic approval. Democrats, for their part, have railed against the move, which they argue zaps any chance of bipartisan dealmaking ahead of the next funding deadline in September. Trump will need more than half a dozen Democrats to vote for any bill to keep the government open. Schumer signaled in a floor speech that Trump's attempt to claw back money that both parties in Congress already agreed to spend could trigger a breakdown in talks — leading to a shutdown. 'It is absurd to expect Democrats to play along with funding the government if Republicans are just going to renege on a bipartisan agreement,' Schumer said on the floor last week. Even some Republicans, though, aren't sure Trump's package can pass a narrowly divided Congress. 'Will it pass? I don't know. I really don't know,' GOP Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana said of the funding cuts. 'We got a lot of Republicans who talk tough. We'll see if they're tough.'
Boston Globe
3 hours ago
- Boston Globe
‘Who's got next?' Democrats already lining up for 2028 presidential race in early voting states.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom was referred to as a presidential candidate at one stop in his two-day South Carolina tour last week. Voters shouted '2028!' after he insisted he was there simply to strengthen the party ahead of the 2026 midterms. South Carolina has virtually no competitive midterm contests. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Term-limited Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who acknowledges he's considering a 2028 bid, will spend two days touring South Carolina this week. He will focus on the state's Black community while drawing an implicit contrast with Newsom on cultural issues, according to excerpts of his planned remarks obtained by The Associated Press. Advertisement California Congressman Ro Khanna, a progressive aligned with the Bernie Sanders ' wing of the Democratic Party, will target union members and Black voters when he's in the state a few days later with the son of a civil rights leader. Advertisement And former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is having private conversations with key South Carolina Democrats, including presidential primary kingmaker Rep. Jim Clyburn, in which Emanuel indicated strong interest in a presidential run. That's according to Clyburn himself, who said he's also had direct contact with Beshear and Khanna after appearing alongside Newsom last week and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore in May. 'That's what candidates have to do: position themselves and be ready when lightning strikes,' Clyburn said. Democrats look to turn the page from 2024 The unusually early jockeying is playing out as the Democratic Party struggles to repair its brand, rebuild its message and fill a leadership vacuum after losing the White House and both chambers of Congress in 2024. Democrats are decidedly more optimistic about 2028. Republicans will not have the advantage of incumbency in the next presidential contest; the Constitution bars President Donald Trump from seeking a third term. And the race for the Democratic nomination appears to be wide open, even as 2024 nominee Kamala Harris and running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have left open the possibility of running again. With no clear front-runner, some Democratic operatives believe upwards of 30 high-profile Democrats could ultimately enter the 2028 primary — more than the party's overpacked 2020 field. And as Democrats struggle to stop Trump's power grabs in Washington, some report a real sense of urgency to get the 2028 process started. Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a rising Democratic star, told the AP earlier this year that presidential prospects 'need to be more visible earlier' as party officials look to take cues from a new generation of leaders. 'What freaks most Democrats out is not really understanding who's up next. Like, who's got next?' she said. 'And I think that that is really what people want most; they want their presidential nominee now.' Advertisement A Kentucky Democrat steps into the conversation Beshear, Kentucky's 47-year-old two-term governor, is scheduled to make his first visit to South Carolina on political grounds on Wednesday and Thursday. He will promote his appeal among red-state moderates and Black voters in a Thursday speech hosted by the Georgetown County Democrats in a region that voted three times for Trump and has a large Black population. 'Democrats have a huge opportunity to seize the middle and win back the voters who have been increasingly skeptical of the Democratic brand. But it's going to take focus and discipline,' Beshear is expected to say, according to speech excerpts obtained by the AP. There are no direct jabs at Newsom in the excerpts, but Beshear is expected to continue drawing contrasts with the California governor, who earlier this year suggested his party went too far in embracing 'woke' priorities. In his prepared remarks, Beshear doesn't shy away from such progressive cultural issues. He will note he made Juneteenth an executive branch holiday for the first time in Kentucky, signed an executive order that prohibits discrimination against state workers for how they wear their hair and ordered the removal of a statue of Jefferson Davis, who served as the president of the Confederacy during the Civil War. 'The current federal administration wants to make diversity a dirty word,' Beshear plans to say. 'They want people to believe that equity means everyone isn't worthy of opportunities.' Who else is stepping up? Already this year, Walz of Minnesota and Moore of Maryland have addressed South Carolina Democrats. Biden Cabinet member Pete Buttigieg, a 2020 presidential candidate, hosted a town hall in Iowa in May. The month before, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker headlined a Democratic fundraiser in New Hampshire. Advertisement Others are moving more cautiously. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has avoided any early state travel this year, focusing instead on his 2026 reelection. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has also focused largely on her day job. Both would be top-tier presidential candidates should they decide to run. Khanna has been working to build his national profile since before the last election with frequent trips to New Hampshire, among other early voting states. The California congressman is scheduled to host two town-hall style meetings in South Carolina this weekend with Illinois Rep. Jonathan Jackson, the son of civil rights leader the Rev. Jesse Jackson. Khanna casts his lower profile — at least compared to potential competitors like Newsom and Shapiro — as an asset when asked about his party's early 2028 field. 'I think it's very different than in the past when you've had clear defined leaders of the party. I think that's healthy. There is no status quo person,' Khanna said. 'My guess is the last thing the party is going to want is more of the same." Newsom's South Carolina dance Newsom spent much of last year denying interest in a presidential run. But with his final term as governor set to expire at the end of next year, his 2028 ambitions are starting to emerge more publicly. During his recent South Carolina tour, Newsom only smiled when voters shouted '2028!' after he referenced his focus on the 2026 midterms. Clyburn said openly what the California governor would not. Appearing with Newsom, Clyburn encouraged local Democrats to be energized by the visits of 'presidential candidates' coming early and often to their state. Advertisement Newsom looked around, seemingly seeking the object of Clyburn's remark, as the crowd laughed. In an interview afterward, Clyburn said he doesn't have an early favorite in the 2028 Democratic nomination contest. New Hampshire remains a player Pritzker headlined a key state fundraiser in New Hampshire in May. And state Democratic leaders are privately encouraging other 2028 prospects to visit the state. Unlike South Carolina, New Hampshire features two competitive House races and a top-tier Senate election next year. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, campaigned Friday in the state with Rep. Chris Pappas, who is expected to represent Democrats on the Senate ballot next fall. In a brief interview, she insisted her only purpose was backing Pappas' campaign. 'I am here to help my friend,' she said. 'I know a lot of people here and I want to put it to use in a good way.' What do the voters say? It may be early, but some Democratic voters and local officials say they're ready to get the cycle started. Jody Gaulin, the Democratic chair of a deep-red South Carolina county, is hoping the energy that comes along with potential candidates could boost her party's ranks. 'This is exactly what we've been waiting for,' Gaulin said. It's much the same in New Hampshire. Democrat Jane Lescynski, who works at the manufacturing facility Klobuchar toured Friday, had a quick answer when asked her thoughts about the 2028 presidential election. 'I can't wait,' she said. Peoples reported from New York. Ramer reported from Gilsum, New Hampshire.
