logo
Trump Tariff Flip-Flops: ‘TACO Trump' Has Changed His Mind 28 Times Since ‘Liberation Day'

Trump Tariff Flip-Flops: ‘TACO Trump' Has Changed His Mind 28 Times Since ‘Liberation Day'

Forbes5 hours ago
The months since President Donald Trump's April 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement have been defined by constant reversals over how the White House is handling its signature economic policy, with Trump's decision to extend his tariff pause until Aug. 1 becoming the latest in a long string of about-faces that has Wall Street declaring the president 'always chickens out.'
President Donald Trump has frequently flip-flopped on his tariff policy in the months since ... More "Liberation Day."April 2 (Flip-Flop No.1) Trump formally rolled out his 'Liberation Day' tariff policy at the White House, imposing sweeping tariffs on nearly all countries—and reversing course on earlier pledges he made about them, exempting 'copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber articles, certain critical minerals, and energy and energy products' despite the White House previously claiming there would be no carveouts.
Flip-Flop No. 2 The final 'Liberation Day' tariffs also weren't fully 'reciprocal' tariffs that matched the rate each country charges for U.S. imports, as Trump had promised, with the president instead saying 'the tariffs will be not a full reciprocal' because 'it would have been tough for a lot of countries and we didn't want to do that.'
Flip-Flop No. 3 After promising the tariff rates would be calculated using a sophisticated formula based on both existing tariffs and non-tariff barriers with each country, experts determined the final 'Liberation Day' rates were instead calculated by just dividing a country's trade surplus with the U.S. by its export value.
April 3 (Flip-Flop No. 4) Hours after Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro claimed on CNBC the administration's tariff rates were 'not a negotiation,' Trump told reporters he was open to making deals with other countries 'as long as they're giving us something that's good.'
April 4-7 (Flip-Flop No. 5) Trump and his advisors offered shifting views in the following days over whether or not the administration was open to negotiating tariff rates with other countries, with the president saying on Truth Social that his tariffs 'WILL NEVER CHANGE' shortly before advisors suggested other countries were reaching out to begin trade talks. (The president later claimed April 7 that 'both can be true' and 'there can be permanent tariffs, and there can also be negotiations.')
April 9 (Flip-Flop No. 6) Trump unexpectedly paused the worst of his 'Liberation Day' tariffs for 90 days—just hours after they took effect and caused the stock market to plunge—keeping only a baseline 10% rate and higher Chinese tariffs in place despite previously claiming he would not delay the tariffs.
Flip-Flop No. 7 Trump also almost immediately contradicted claims by his advisors that delaying the tariffs was his plan all along, as the president told reporters he only made the decision that morning after 'people were jumping a little bit out of line' and 'getting yippy.'
April 11 (Flip-Flop No. 8) U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued guidance exempting smartphones, computers and other electronic devices from the tariffs, despite repeated claims from Trump and advisors like Howard Lutnick that they wanted that manufacturing to move to the U.S.
April 13 (Flip-Flop No. 9) Trump then denied there was any exemption on electronics, claiming on Truth Social 'there was 'no Tariff 'exception' announced on Friday' and the tariffs on smartphones and other goods are 'just moving to a different Tariff 'bucket',' even as others in his administration had already described the guidance as an exemption.
April 22 (Flip-Flop No. 10) After previously claiming he was 'comfortable' with the 145% tariff rate he imposed on Chinese imports, Trump told reporters he was planning to lower that number, saying he didn't want to play 'hard ball' with China and the rate would 'come down substantially, but it won't be zero.'
April 29 (Flip-Flop No. 11) Trump signed an executive order exempting companies paying the 25% tariff on imported cars and auto parts from paying other tariffs on specific goods, such as those on steel and aluminum.
May 6 (Flip-Flop No. 12) Trump, who previously said he'd make deals with 'everybody,' tamped down hopes of imminent trade deals with other countries and suggested his officials were misspeaking about wanting to sign deals with every country who asks.
Flip-Flop No. 13 The president also suggested he did not feel any urgency to start negotiating with China and claimed the U.S. is 'losing nothing' by not trading with Beijing—only for his administration to announce hours later that officials would hold discussions with Chinese officials in Switzerland that weekend.
May 12 (Flip-Flop No. 14) After Trump publicly floated a potential 80% tariff rate on Chinese goods, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials announced a 90-day pause on the worst of the two countries' tariffs on each others' goods, with the U.S. lowering its tariff rate on most Chinese imports to a much lower 30%.
May 16 (Flip-Flop No. 15) Trump suggested for the first time that his administration would send out letters to countries that impose new tariff rates on them without making deals, saying, 'We have ... 150 countries that want to make a deal, but you're not able to see that many countries.'
May 18 (Flip-Flop No. 16) Bessent backtracked on Trump's claims about the letters, telling CNN and 'Meet the Press' that letters will only be sent to nations who don't negotiate in 'good faith' informing them their tariffs will return to their previous April 2 rates.
May 23 (Flip-Flop No. 17) After previously removing the tariffs on smartphones, Trump threatened new 25% tariffs on iPhones in an early morning Truth Social post, saying he will impose the tariff on Apple if its phones being sold in the U.S. are not 'manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else.'
Flip-Flop No. 18 The president also threatened new 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union starting June 1, writing on Truth Social that the bloc 'has been very difficult to deal with' and claiming, 'Our discussions with them are going nowhere!'
May 23 (Flip-Flop No. 19) Bessent walked back the administration's previous suggestions that it could make '90 deals in 90 days,' telling Fox News only that he expects there to be 'more and more' deals announced 'as we approach the end of the 90-day period' in July.
May 25 (Flip-Flop No. 20) Trump postponed his planned 50% tariffs on the European Union to July 9, stating he would 'rapidly get together' with European leaders to 'see if we can work something out.'
May 30 (Flip-Flop No. 21) Trump announced a raise on steel tariffs from 25% to 50% during an event in Pennsylvania, saying the new rate would go into effect on June 4.
June 11 (Flip-Flop No. 22) Bessent testified to House lawmakers it was 'highly likely' Trump will extend his tariff pause in order to complete negotiations with trading partners, and Trump similarly told reporters he wouldn't rule out an extension.
July 3 (Flip-Flop No. 23) Trump suggested he could pose significantly higher tariff rates for some countries than what he first proposed on 'Liberation Day,' when rates maxed out at 50%, telling reporters he would start sending out letters to other countries imposing rates that range from 'maybe 60 or 70% tariffs' to '10 or 20%.'
July 6 (Flip-Flop No. 24) Trump announced on Truth Social his administration would start sending 'letters and/or deals' on tariffs to other countries starting at noon the following day, pushing back the timeline after he previously promised they would start being sent July 4.
Flip-Flop No. 25 The president also threatened additional 10% tariffs on 'any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS'—referring to the bloc that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Iran—as the organization decried Trump's tariffs at its summit. Trump later followed through by imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil.
July 7 (Flip-Flop No. 26) Trump formally extended the deadline for his 'Liberation Day' tariffs until Aug. 1, after sending out letters to 14 countries imposing new tariff rates starting that day if they don't negotiate a trade deal with the Trump administration.
July 8 (Flip-Flop No. 27) Trump shifted his position on whether that Aug. 1 date will stick, first telling reporters July 7 that it's 'firm, but not 100% firm,' but then claiming the next day on Truth Social that 'there will be no change' to the deadline and 'no extensions will be granted.'
July 11 (Flip-Flop No. 28) Trump suggested he could raise the baseline tariff rate on imports from countries his administration doesn't reach specific deals with, which is at 10% now, telling NBC News, 'We're just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it's 20% or 15%.'
Trump's frequent flip-flopping on tariffs—and taking rates down after the markets get spooked—has earned him the nickname of 'TACO Trump' on Wall Street, which stands for 'Trump always chickens out.' Deutsche Bank strategists raised their forecasts in June for the S&P 500 index based on the belief Trump has 'already relented' on tariffs and there will be 'further relents' in the future, and Wall Street analysts suggested the stock market had a muted response to Trump's new round of tariff letters largely because of the president's tendency to back off his tariff threats. IG Group chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp called the latest tariff rollout a 'damp squib,' arguing, 'Rightly or wrongly, investors think they know what happens from here.' 'Either negotiations result, and a 'deal' of some sort (usually in the vaguest terms) is announced, allowing Trump to claim a win, or a fresh extension to the deadline is announced,' Beauchamp wrote.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai decried the 'TACO Trump' allegations in a statement to Forbes, saying the administration's position on trade 'has never changed: the decades of unfair foreign trade practices that have left American workers behind are over.' 'The media's idiotic obsession with stupid memes is not going to change the fact that President Trump is successfully using tariffs to protect American industries, drive trillions in historic investment commitments, renegotiate lopsided trade deals, and raise billions in revenue for the federal government,' Desai told Forbes. Trump has called the 'TACO Trump' nickname 'nasty' and railed against the suggestion he's 'chickening out,' telling reporters in May, 'You know, if I set a number, a ridiculous high number, and I go down a little bit, a little bit, they want me to hold that number.' Can The Courts Stop Trump's Tariffs?
Two courts have already ruled that Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs are unlawful and the president exceeded his authority by imposing them. The tariffs remain in place, however, as appeals courts then put those rulings on hold while the litigation plays out. The appeals court is scheduled to hold oral arguments on July 31 on the most sweeping lawsuit over the tariffs, so there won't be any changes to the tariffs' legality before that date. Plaintiffs in one of the lawsuits over the tariffs asked the Supreme Court to take up the issue on an urgent timeline, requesting that justices hear oral arguments over the tariffs' legality as soon as their next term begins, or even sooner. The court rejected that request, however, so while it's still possible the Supreme Court will ultimately decide whether Trump's tariffs are legal, they won't be doing so within the coming months. What We Don't Know: Will There Be More Tariff Changes?
It's ultimately still unclear what the tariff rates will look like when the extended pause ends on Aug. 1—even for countries that receive letters from the Trump administration imposing new tariff rates, as the president wrote in the letters that their rates are subject to change 'depending on our relationship with your Country.' Many of the countries that Trump targeted have vowed to continue negotiations in hopes of securing a better rate before Aug. 1. The trade deals also aren't expected to completely get rid of tariffs on any country, as Lutnick claimed after the trade deal with the U.K. was announced that for countries that have trade deficits with the U.S., 'The best they can do is 10%—most likely they'll be higher.' Trump has also threatened 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and other products like semiconductors, but it remains to be seen if those will come to fruition and take effect. Democratic lawmakers have asked the Trump administration to exempt baby products from its tariffs, which Bessent testified in May was 'under consideration,' but the White House has not made any announcements yet regarding those goods. Chief Critic
Democrats have decried the constant changes in Trump's tariff policy, which they argue further harm the economy. 'The White House has no idea what it's doing on tariffs and keeps flip flopping. Lutnick now says the tariff exemptions on, for example iPhones, are temporary. Why even do an exemption if you're going to reverse it soon?' Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif., said on X on April 13. 'The White House 'has no strategy, and is rapidly losing credibility.'
Trump has long touted tariffs as a cornerstone of his policy agenda, making them a centerpiece of his campaign and repeatedly pledging to put them in effect. His flip-flopping on the 'Liberation Day' tariffs comes after Trump previously shifted his stance in how he handled tariffs on Mexico and Canada, initially announcing hours after his inauguration that he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1, which briefly took effect before he ultimately paused them for 30 days on Feb. 3. The tariffs then took effect again on March 4, though Trump later paused tariffs on automobiles and exempted many products from the tariffs on March 6. Trump has charged forward with his tariff plans despite longstanding warnings from economists that doing so would raise prices for American consumers and harm the economy, which have played out as the tariffs have taken effect, roiling the stock market and leading economic experts to warn of a looming recession. Further Reading Forbes Trump Again Extending 'Liberation Day' Tariff Pause—Setting Aug. 1 Deadline For Deals By Alison Durkee Forbes Trump's New Tariffs Could Cost Households $2,400 This Year, Analysis Finds By Alison Durkee Forbes Trump Floats 200% Tariffs On Pharmaceuticals By Alison Durkee
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

The Latest: Trump promises a 'major statement' on Russia-Ukraine war as he hosts NATO leader
The Latest: Trump promises a 'major statement' on Russia-Ukraine war as he hosts NATO leader

Washington Post

time12 minutes ago

  • Washington Post

The Latest: Trump promises a 'major statement' on Russia-Ukraine war as he hosts NATO leader

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will be in Washington today and tomorrow for talks with President Donald Trump , Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as well as members of Congress . Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin ''talks nice and then he bombs everybody' as he confirmed the U.S. is sending Patriot missiles to Kyiv and plans sell NATO allies weaponry to pass on to Ukraine. Trump has teased a 'major statement' on Russia on Monday. Over the weekend, Trump threatened new 30% tariffs against Mexico and the European Union to be implemented Aug. 1 despite ongoing negotiations . Last week, he also threatened a 35% tax on many Canadian goods and warned of a 50% tax on Brazil in an attempt to impact the criminal trial against former president Jair Bolsonaro . And a federal judge ordered a halt Friday to indiscriminate immigration stops and arrests in seven California counties, including LA, after plaintiffs including two U.S. citizens who were detained, accused the administration of systematically targeting brown-skinned people. Here's the latest: Data from CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin climbed above $123,000 early Monday, up from about $108,000 only a week ago. The cryptocurrency is now the fifth most valuable asset class in the world at $2.4 trillion, with a higher market cap than Amazon. The House is under pressure from Trump and the big-spending crypto lobby to quickly pass legislation including a bill passed last month by the Senate to regulate so-called stablecoins. The House is considering far more sweeping cryptocurrency market structure legislation. Trump, once a skeptic, vowed to make the U.S. the global capital of crypto. He and his family have moved into mining operations, billion-dollar bitcoin purchases, a newly minted stablecoin and a Trump-branded meme coin. The S&P 500 was edging down early Monday, still within 0.5% of its all-time high set on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq composite were holding steady in their first trading after Trump said he plans 30% tariffs on goods from Mexico and the European Union starting Aug. 1, the same deadline he announced for Japan, South Korea and a dozen other countries . The latest postponements allow time for more dealmaking to mitigate economic damage. Enacting all his import taxes on U.S. consumers would raise the risk of a recession and raise U.S. debt pressure as big tax cuts add to the deficit. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, predicts the Trump administration 'will ultimately de-escalate, especially if there is a new bout of heightened bond and stock market volatility.' As Trump slaps trading partners with tariffs rather than slog through prolonged negotiations, pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and launches a new investigation aimed at reshaping higher education, it's clear that threats are a permanent feature of his presidency. He's tightening his grip on independent institutions, with fewer checks on his power. Republicans in Congress fear primary challenges, and the Supreme Court is stocked with his appointees. Trump's allies believe his aggression is required in a political ecosystem where he's under siege from Democrats, the court system and the media. Critics fear he's eroding the country's democratic foundations with an authoritarian style. 'Pluralism and a diversity of institutions operating with autonomy — companies, the judiciary, nonprofit institutions that are important elements of society — are much of what defines real democracy,' said Larry Summers, a former Treasury secretary and former president of Harvard University. 'That is threatened by heavy handed, extortionist approaches.' ▶ Read more about Trump's moves to expand his power They met in Kyiv on Monday as anticipation grew over a possible shift in the Trump administration's policy on the three-year war . Zelenskyy said he and retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg had 'a productive conversation' about strengthening Ukrainian air defenses, joint arms production, purchasing U.S. weapons in conjunction with European countries and the possibility of tighter sanctions on the Kremlin. Trump has increasingly expressed frustration about Russian President Vladimir Putin's unbudging stance on U.S-led peace efforts. 'I am very disappointed with President Putin, I thought he was somebody that meant what he said,' Trump said late Sunday. 'We hope for the leadership of the United States, because it is clear that Moscow will not stop unless its ... ambitions are stopped by force,' Zelenskyy said on Telegram. These children attend after-school and summer programming at a Boys & Girls Club, YMCA or public school for free thanks to funding set Congress set aside for academic support, enrichment and child care to mostly low-income families. Many now face closure as the Trump administration withholds more than $6 billion in federal education grants to align with his priorities . Ninety-one of the 100 school districts receiving the most money from four frozen grant programs are in Republican congressional districts, according to an analysis from New America , a left-leaning think tank. 'I deeply believe in fiscal responsibility, which means evaluating the use of funds and seeking out efficiencies, but also means being responsible — releasing funds already approved by Congress and signed by President Trump,' said Georgia schools superintendent Richard Woods, an elected Republican. ▶ Read more about the children's programs that face closure Spending bills almost always need some bipartisan buy-in to get 60 votes to avoid a filibuster in the 100-member Senate. This week's effort is different. Congress set up a process under President Richard Nixon to speedily claw back previously approved spending authority with only a simple Senate majority. It's a rarely employed maneuver. Trump proposed 38 rescissions in 2018, but that package stalled. 'How Republicans answer this question on rescissions and other forthcoming issues will have grave implications for the Congress, the very role of the legislative branch, and, more importantly, our country,' Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer warned in a letter to colleagues. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he's disappointed to see Schumer 'implicitly threaten to shut down the government.' The Trump administration is likening this as a test case and says more could come if Congress goes along. Trump has asked lawmakers to rescind nearly $1.1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting — the full amount it's due to receive during the next two budget years. The corporation distributes more than two-thirds of the money to more than 1,500 locally operated public television and radio stations. Much of the rest supports national programming through National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting System. The potential fallout has generated concerns among Republicans. Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota says these radio stations 'are the only way of really communicating in the very rural areas of our state, and a lot of other states as well.' In recent testimony , Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought criticized a 'Sesame Street' town hall on CNN about combatting racism. Senate Republicans will test the popularity of Department of Government Efficiency spending cuts this week by aiming to pass Trump's request to claw back $9.4 billion in public media and foreign aid spending. Senate Democrats are trying to kill the measure, but they need help from a few Republicans. A rarely used tool allows the president to request the cancellation of previously approved funding authority, triggering a 45-day clock under which the funds are frozen. If Congress fails to act before that clock expires Friday, the spending stands. The House has already approved Trump's request on a mostly party line 214-212 vote. The Senate has little time to spare. Another House vote will be needed if senators amend the legislation, adding more uncertainty. ▶ Read more about the congressional claw-back effort European trade ministers are meeting in Brussels following Trump's surprise announcement of 30% tariffs on the European Union. 'We should prepare to be ready to use all the tools in the toolbox,' said Denmark's foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, told reporters ahead of the meeting. 'So we want a deal, but there's an old saying: 'If you want peace, you have to prepare for war.'' If Trump makes good on his tariff threats against dozens of countries, it could have ramifications for nearly every aspect of the global economy. ▶ Read more about the European Union on Trump tariffs talks ″This is now the time for negotiations,'′ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels on Sunday after Trump sent a letter announcing new 30% tariffs on all EU goods starting Aug. 1. The America's biggest trading partner and the world's largest trading bloc had been scheduled to impose ″countermeasures'' starting Monday at midnight. ″We have always been clear that we prefer a negotiated solution,'′ she said. If they can't reach a deal, she said that ″we will continue to prepare countermeasures so we are fully prepared.'′ Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, is visiting to meet with Trump. Their meeting is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET in the Oval Office. Trump is expected to move forward with a plan to sell weapons to European allies who can then transfer the weapons to Ukraine. The president has grown frustrated with Russia's Vladimir Putin and has promised a 'major statement' on Monday.

Map Shows States Most and Least Prepared for Recession
Map Shows States Most and Least Prepared for Recession

Newsweek

time13 minutes ago

  • Newsweek

Map Shows States Most and Least Prepared for Recession

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. While a number of economic indicators show U.S. recession risks remain elevated, some states are more equipped than others to handle a potential downturn, based on their economic strength, diversity and independence. According to Moody's Analytics, cited by British newspaper The Telegraph, the odds of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession within the next 12 months have grown to 47.6 percent, which is up significantly from 33.2 percent in January. Amid these surge in risk, CNBC has charted which states could be best prepared—and least prepared—for a recession, basing the findings on overall economic strength and other characteristics that could insulate an economy from a major downturn. Why It Matters The elevated warning from Moody's comes amid a resurgence in tensions between America and a number of its main trading partners. Last week, President Donald Trump unveiled a host of new duties, and deadlines are now approaching for countries to secure deals before their tariff rates revert to the levels unveiled on April 2, or "Liberation Day." In addition, the economy continues to show signs of weak consumer confidence, a sinking currency and a job market which, while holding steady, could lack stability. Which States Are Prepared for a Recession? For its rankings of the states best prepared for a recession, CNBC assessed those with large and diverse economies capable of absorbing economic shocks, attractive conditions for business, low debt and reliance on federal funding. By this methodology, Florida stood out as the state best prepared for a recession in the near future. CNBC highlighted its strong economy—scoring 363 in out of a possible 445 in this category—as well as GDP growth, jobs growth, and the state's stable debt rating and outlook. While still a "major player" in international trade, the outlet noted that this comprises only a relatively small part of Florida's wider economy, and that it is less reliant than others on trade with China, "leaving the state in a better position than many when it comes to tariffs." Second on the list was Texas, the second biggest state economy by GDP and home to an increasing number of companies that have relocated away from California in search of a more business-friendly tax and regulatory environment. The remainder of the states rounding out the top 10 are: 3. North Carolina 4. Delaware 5. New York 6. Washington 7. Idaho 8. Utah 9. Georgia 10. South Carolina Which States Are Least Prepared for a Recession? On the other end of the scale, CNBC identified Alaska as the state most vulnerable were a recession to occur. This is primarily due to what the network said is a weak Alaska economy—scoring only 110 out of 445—thanks largely to a reliance on volatile oil prices. Per the Alaska Department of Revenue, the price of Alaska North Slope crude has dropped significantly over the past year. Alaska is followed by Mississippi, where a heavy reliance on federal funding undermines overall economic strength, as the current administration has expressed desires to slash the federal budget. The remaining states CNBC identified as especially at risk during a recession are: 3. Kansas 4. Louisiana 5. New Mexico 6. Rhode Island 7. Illinois 8. North Dakota 9. West Virginia 10. Oregon What People Are Saying CNBC, in its analysis of Florida, wrote: "Economic growth and job growth remain solidly in the top 10, state finances are strong, and the state is a leader in new business formations. Florida is a major player in international trade, but it comprises a relatively small percentage of the state's overall economy. And only a small percentage of that international trade is with China, leaving the state in a better position than many when it comes to tariffs." Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi, quoted in The Telegraph, said: "The risk is high that there's a mistake or something else goes wrong when the economy is vulnerable and we actually go into recession." What Happens Next? A clearer sign on whether the U.S. is approaching a recession—conventionally defined as two successive quarters of economic contraction—will emerge in late July, when the Department of Commerce releases its advanced estimates of GDP growth for the second quarter. The first quarter saw GDP decline by 0.5 percent, the first drop in three years, though analysts are currently forecasting growth in the July 30 release.

Trump Threatens 30% Tariffs -- But Markets Are Betting He'll Blink Again
Trump Threatens 30% Tariffs -- But Markets Are Betting He'll Blink Again

Yahoo

time13 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Trump Threatens 30% Tariffs -- But Markets Are Betting He'll Blink Again

The euro (EUR/USD) showed surprising resilience on Monday, hovering at $1.1686 after a brief dip to $1.1651 its lowest in nearly three weeks as investors digested Donald Trump's weekend threat of 30% tariffs on EU cars and agriculture. With the clock ticking toward an August 1 deadline, markets appear to be leaning toward a negotiated outcome. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, confirmed that retaliatory measures will remain suspended to allow room for talks. ING's Chris Turner noted the threat tactics were familiar, suggesting more noise could be ahead, but that a better deal for Europe still feels within reach. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with NVDA. Interestingly, the bond market offered its own view. German two-year yields dipped by just 1 basis point to 1.89%, having recovered from a deeper intraday drop. Meanwhile, 30-year yields pushed higher their highest since 2023 as attention shifted toward upcoming EU debt sales. FX and rates traders, for now, seem to be pricing in a scenario where tariffs if imposed at all would be watered down. Bloomberg strategist Ven Ram observed that swaps are still only factoring in one more rate cut from the ECB, signaling confidence that trade tensions might not derail the broader macro outlook. Still, not everyone's relaxed. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned against investor complacency, cautioning that repeated U-turns from Trump's camp shouldn't be taken for granted. But traders appear to be leaning on muscle memory having seen similar brinkmanship before. While uncertainty remains, the euro's stability suggests markets aren't bracing for a full-blown tariff war at least not yet. All eyes now turn to the next move before August 1. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store