Alcaraz to win again and Gauff to crash out: our expert Wimbledon predictions

Telegraph

a day ago

Another glorious fortnight awaits us as Wimbledon captures Britain's imagination again from Monday.
However, while there are some things you can bank on – strawberries, rain delays and slippy grass – the actual sport can throw up plenty of intrigue.
So we tasked our experts with picking their winners, wildcards and dream scenarios before the first ball is whacked in anger. Here are their predictions:
Who will win the men's championship?
All right, I'm not sure I actually believe this, but it's just too dull to predict a third Carlos Alcaraz title on the bounce. And if the new 'Big Two' reach the trophy match, Jannik Sinner will have maximum motivation to seek revenge for that epic French Open final.
I cannot look beyond the player who has lost on grass just three times in his life. Fortified by winning an astonishing French Open final and by his second triumph in three years at Queen's, the Spaniard is poised to complete a Wimbledon 'three-peat' at 22, a year earlier than even Roger Federer managed it.
After the French Open epic, Queen's and his impressive history on grass, it is hard to look past Carlos Alcaraz to lift the title again. For someone who only recently turned 22, he manages himself well on the tour, giving himself time off – like a short break in Ibiza after the French Open, only to come back and win at Queen's.
Given his last two titles, it is hard to see how anyone can stop him on grass, although Novak Djokovic may view Wimbledon as his best chance to win a 25th grand-slam tournament.
It is hard to look past the Spaniard winning again, especially after his victory at Queen's. Given how uncomfortable Jannik Sinner looks on grass at times, if they met in the final, I'm backing the two-time winner.
Given the scintillating form he is in it's hard to look past Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard is fast becoming a serial winner on grass following his Queen's victory and looks nailed-on to complete his Wimbledon 'three-peat'. Nobody will be able to knock him off his perch.
Who will win women's championship?
It takes a true mystic to predict a Wimbledon ladies' champion these days. Look at the last three winners: Barbora Krejcikova, Marketa Vondrousova and Elena Rybakina. Most sports fans wouldn't know them from Eve. So, let's plump for another winner from the Eastern Bloc, past or present. How about 18-year-old Russian prodigy Mirra Andreeva? She has the distinct advantage of having Conchita Martinez, the 1994 champion here, in her player box.
The world No 1's crushing baseline power should have secured her the Venus Rosewater Dish by now, but the combination of a shoulder injury and the All England Club's 2022 ban on players from Russia and Belarus has ruled her out of two of the past three tournaments. She believes her game is well-suited to grass and has reached both grand-slam finals so far this season.
After reaching three successive major finals, it is hard to think that Aryna Sabalenka will at least not be standing on Centre Court for the women's final day, but it remains to be seen how much those final losses will have affected her.
Grass is not a straightforward surface, but it is more likely to suit Sabalenka than Coco Gauff, who cannot defend in the same way she did at Roland Garros. Although the women's draw is often a lot more open than the men's, with a far greater chance of upsets.
The women's winner is much harder to predict. We haven't had a repeat winner since Serena Williams in 2016 so I'll be picking Aryna Sabalenka to finally get the job done. Her route to the final is kind and she's the biggest draw.
Assuming we'll continue the merry-go-round of different women's winners, I'm backing Jessica Pegula to become the ninth different female champion at SW19 in as many years. The American's game is well suited to grass and she'll be brimming with confidence after her Hamburg Open victory over Iga Swiatek.
How will the Brits do?
A hefty 15 wildcards have boosted the British contingent to 23, the highest number since 1984. But their draws are collectively horrible, so it could be a bloodbath over the first few days. Jack Pinnington Jones is one left-field prospect who could prove a handful. His first-round opponent is to be Tomas Martin Etcheverry, a confirmed clay-courter from Argentina.
I struggle to envisage a bountiful harvest here. The draws for the main hopes could scarcely be worse: both Jack Draper and Emma Raducanu potentially face former champions in the second round, while Katie Boulter will do well to dispatch world No 9 Paula Badosa in the first. But a fast-improving Jacob Fearnley could go far.
Despite there being more British players in the main draw than any other year since 1984, most of those have come in via the wildcard system, and only one, Jack Draper, is seeded. Should he find an impressive run of form post-tonsilitis, there is a good chance he will be in the second week, although it is hard to see if any other British players will join him.
Emma Raducanu will be the favourite against fellow home-grown talent Mimi Xu, but after that 2023 champion Markéta Vondroušová and Aryna Sabalenka stand in her path, while Katie Boulter was drawn against ninth seed Paula Badosa.
It is going to be a struggle for the Brits. I can see a lot of first-round exits. The best hope of a deep run is Jack Draper. Katie Boulter vs Paula Badosa is a good test for the former to see what level she is at.
If Jack Draper can keep his cool in the heat of the battle, I'm tipping him to reach the last four. On his day he can go toe-to-toe with the best and his first Wimbledon as British No 1 is a bit of a free hit.
Emma Raducanu should breeze past Mimi Xu and is capable of ousting Marketa Vondrousova in a possible second-round match-up. Conversely, if she faces Aryna Sabalenka instead, she could be saying goodbye early on. If she can get past Jelena Ostapenko in the first round, I fancy Sonay Kartal to do something special. She's a plucky competitor.
Your dark horse
As the No 7 seed orenzo Musetti is no slouch. But in a world where everyone is focusing on Jannik Sinner, the other Italian is easily overlooked. A semi-finalist last year, Musetti has souped up his serve since then, and has the widest range of shots of anyone in the modern game except possibly Carlos Alcaraz. Check out that single-handed backhand, because it's a thing of beauty.
Dark horse: Lorenzo Musetti
Jiri Lehecka's serve looked highly destructive at Queen's, regularly touching 140mph. A back injury prevented Wimbledon crowds from seeing the Czech's qualities up close last year, but 12 months on, with a title to his name in Brisbane and a genuine love for grass – 'I call it a real surface,' he says – he is primed for a deep run.
Dark horse: Jiri Lehecka
Alexander Bublik is enjoying something of a purple patch with his performances since Roland Garros, where he knocked out Jack Draper in four sets despite being ranked 62 in the world at the time. The Khazakhstani also knocked out Alex de Minaur from two sets down in the second round in Paris.
Should he carry that form into Wimbledon, he will be a threat to contend with and could go a long way in the tournament – he could even have a rematch with Draper in the third round.
Dark horse: Alexander Bublik
Iga Swiatek. I can say that because she's the eighth seed and slightly under the radar. That ranking does not really reflect her qualities and none of the top seeds will want to face her.
Dark horse: Iga Swiatek
The Brazilian wonderkid has been turning heads on the tour and it's only a matter of time before he gets his breakthrough at a major. He'll be keen to impress on his Wimbledon debut and no doubt prove a handful for Jacob Fearnley in the first round.
Dark horse: Joao Fonseca
Big name to exit early
Coco Gauff has just won the French Open, but her big swings can be vulnerable in the slicker conditions that prevail on grass. Her first-round draw against Dayana Yastremska, a huge hitter who recently reached the final of Nottingham, is no gimme.
Early faller: Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff is justifiably full of confidence after taking her second slam crown at Roland Garros, but her draw is a nightmare, with grass court specialist Dayana Yastremska lying in wait for her opener and clashes with fellow major champions Viktoria Azarenka and Sofia Kenin also looming in the first week.
Early faller: Coco Gauff
Grass is a tricky beast in the tennis world, and many top players struggle on the surface while others thrive; Coco Gauff is one of those. She has never reached beyond the fourth round in five appearances and 2025 could follow the same pattern. Although she will be full of confidence following her French Open victory, it is hard to see the American making it past the quarter-finals.
Early faller: Coco Gauff
The downside to reaching the Eastbourne final is a delayed arrival in SW19. When you add the fact Taylor Fritz will face a big-serving Frenchman in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard on Monday, it has the hallmarks of a shock defeat.
Early faller: Taylor Fritz
The reigning champion faces a tough task to defend her Wimbledon crown after battling injuries for most of the year. Her preparation has been far from ideal, too, after crashing to a shock defeat against Rebecca Sramkova at Queen's before withdrawing from Eastbourne last week. Marketa Vondrousova, the 2023 champion, lost in the opening round at The All England Club last year and we could see history repeat itself.
Early faller: Barbora Krejcíkova
What I'd love to see…
It would be nice to have a women's champion with a slightly higher recognition factor. It's now four years since Ashleigh Barty defeated Karolina Pliskova to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish – and promptly retire without defending her title. How we miss that lovely backhand slice.
A repeat of Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner in the men's final. After their 5hr 29min epic in Paris, an encore promises to join the canon of Wimbledon classics.
However unlikely it is, Wimbledon always feels extra special when there is a British interest and for that reason I would love to see more than one Brit in the second week. The draws have not been overly favourable to the local talents, but with tennis you never know, a couple of upsets and suddenly a pathway can open up, and it would give the tournament even more of a buzz.
Jack Draper to reach the quarter-finals at least, where he could meet Novak Djokovic. That would be must-see TV and a partisan crowd could rattle the Serb enough for the Briton to sneak into the last four.
A British wildcard (who the seasonal tennis fan probably hasn't heard of) make a name for themselves by going on a deep run. There are enough of them in the main draw.