
Lebanon's Shiite Muslims mark Ashura amid calls for Hezbollah to disarm and security threats
This year's Ashura celebrations also come amid huge pressure on the Iran-backed group to disarm and security concerns surrounding the event that is one of the most important for Shiite Muslims around the world.
Events are expected to be held across the country, but the largest will be in the southern suburbs of Beirut – a densely populated area predominantly home to the Shia community - and the target of heavy Israeli bombardment last year.
Ashura marks the commemoration by Shiite Muslims of the death of the Prophet Mohammed's grandson, Imam Hussein bin Ali, in the 7th century. The gatherings draw large crowds in Lebanon and are typically used by Hezbollah to show its strong following and support base.
However, this year's processions will be the first without a speech by Hassan Nasrallah, the group's leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on the southern suburbs in September.
Sunday's events will be held under strong security measures. This is not unusual given that large crowds and attendance of senior figures, but recent arrests of cells linked to ISIS have led to fears of attacks targeting the Ashura procession.
Cars and bags were searched as The National was escorted by Hezbollah into the heart of Dahieh.
The commemoration has already been steeped in controversy in Lebanon. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Saturday ordered the arrest of armed men taking part in a procession related to Ashura.
Hezbollah is under pressure to disarm as the government seeks to remove weapons from all non-state actors. The group's top military leadership was killed and a large part of its arsenal destroyed during more than a year of war with Israel that ended with a ceasefire agreement in November that Israel has been accused of breaching more than 3,000 times.
Hezbollah also stayed out of the recent 12-day war between Israel and the group's main patron Iran.
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The National
2 hours ago
- The National
Hezbollah 'divided' over whether to scale back its arsenal amid US pressure to disarm
Hezbollah is reviewing a US proposal urging the group to disarm within a few months, Lebanese sources told The National before a visit by US envoy Thomas Barrack on Monday. The Lebanese group, which is under mounting US pressure and daily Israeli strikes, is internally divided over whether to scale back its arsenal, an informed source close to the matter told The National. The "carrot and stick" US plan could bring reconstruction funds and an end to Israel 's attacks. The increased US pressure on Hezbollah comes amid a major political shift in the Middle East, which has resulted in Iran 's proxies being significantly weakened since the Hamas-led attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel's devastating war on Gaza prompted many of these proxies to launch their own attacks against Israel. On October 8, 2023, in support of its ally, Hamas, Hezbollah initiated tit-for-tat exchanges along the Lebanon-Israel border, which Israel later escalated into a full-scale war. The conflict ended in November, leaving Hezbollah, once Iran's most prized asset, significantly weakened, with much of its arsenal destroyed and parts of its leadership decimated. Hezbollah's disarmament, once considered a political taboo, is now on the table. In June, Mr Barrack, the US special envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, sent a roadmap to Lebanese authorities calling on Hezbollah to relinquish its weapons across the country within a few months, in exchange for financial support and a halt of continuing Israeli military operations. "Lebanon's hope awakens!!! The opportunity is now. This is a historic moment to supersede the strained confessionalism of the past," M Barrack wrote on X ahead of his visit. Hezbollah has been holding clandestine talks to decide on its future, Reuters reported on Friday. Still, observers have raised concerns about the US pressure tactics, stressing that Hezbollah's weapons remain a highly sensitive issue in a deeply fractured country, where the group continues to enjoy broad popular support. 'Carrot and stick' Mr Barrack's roadmap calls for a rapid disarmament of the group in return for the release of much-needed reconstruction funds for the war-ravaged country. It also calls for Israel's withdrawal from five occupied border points it seized in October during its aerial campaign in Lebanon, and a halt to Israeli military operations, according to the source. Mr Barrack described this approach to disarming Hezbollah as 'a carrot and a stick' in an interview with The New York Times. Under the terms of the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, brokered by the US and France, all armed groups in Lebanon must give up their weapons, starting from the south of the Litani River, which lies 30km from the Lebanon-Israel border. In return, Israel must withdraw from the areas in south Lebanon it seized during the war and halt its violations of Lebanese airspace. Lebanese authorities said they have dismantled almost all of Hezbollah's infrastructure near the border with Israel since the ceasefire. But despite this progress, Israel has continued to carry out air strikes, saying it is targeting Hezbollah and accusing the group of violating the truce, which Hezbollah denies. Lebanese authorities say Israel has violated the truce more than 3,000 times. Israeli bombardments since the ceasefire have killed least 71 civilians, according to the UN. The US-backed Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has pledged to establish a state monopoly on weapons, while emphasising that this should be achieved through dialogue with Hezbollah, not by force. Hezbollah retains strong support within parts of the Shiite community, many of whom rely heavily on its social services in the absence of a functioning state. On Sunday, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said the group was ready for peace and dialogue on the one hand, but "confrontation" on the other should such circumstances arise. "We are a people who do not submit, we will not give up our rights and dignity," he stated. Mr Qassem said the group remained steadfast, despite the threat from Israel and others. "This threat will not make us accept surrender," he said. 'How can we confront Israel when it attacks us if we didn't have them?" he asked, in reference to the pressure for the group to hand over its weapons. "Who is preventing Israel from entering villages and landing and killing young people, women and children inside their homes unless there is a resistance with certain capabilities capable of minimal defense?' Observers have cautioned that dismantling the group without considering local dynamics could further destabilise Lebanon. But 'for Washington, the internal complexities Lebanon faces in attempting to disarm Hezbollah are secondary; the focus is on safeguarding Israel', the source said. Mr Barrack's stance aligns with that of Morgan Ortagus, the former official who oversaw the Trump administration's Lebanon portfolio and is known for her pro-Israel position. 'The US's primary concern is state monopoly on weapons and, above all, the security of Israel,' the source added. The position is motivated by a desire to avoid a repeat of the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, which ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, calling for the disarmament of the group. However, Hezbollah began rebuilding its arsenal soon after. 'It still haunts Israelis,' the source said. Today, the situation is drastically different. Hezbollah is grappling with acute financial strain, a decimated chain of command, and severed supply routes following the ousting of its ally Bashar Al Assad in Syria, all amid broader regional shifts in the balance of power. Western diplomats have previously told The National that the intense pressure placed on the new Lebanese government, embraced by international powers, and marked by a significant decline in Hezbollah's political influence could jeopardise its stability. The US pressure tactics could also backfire, the source warned. 'There's a risk Hezbollah could feel cornered and respond defensively,' the source said.


The National
10 hours ago
- The National
Lebanese leadership's failure to confront Hezbollah would invite more Israeli devastation
Optimism about Lebanon's ability to transition itself from a vassal state to a state with stature and the capacity to govern itself is waning. As neighbouring Syria makes strides following a civil war, Lebanon is still behaving like an extension of Hezbollah's mini state. This is largely because Iran hasn't allowed Hezbollah to surrender its weapons and relinquish its position as the leader of its 'Resistance Axis' against Israel, thereby refusing to facilitate US President Donald Trump's quest for a strategic shift in Lebanon. Mr Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, hasn't raised the issue of armed proxies in his negotiations with Iran, perhaps giving its leaders the impression that Hezbollah is a mere footnote in the nuclear talks. As for Israel, its confidence in its military capability to eliminate Hezbollah's arsenal – even if that means causing widespread destruction in Lebanon – is growing. It's for this reason that Lebanon's citizens, as well as its Arab and western partners, are growing weary of Beirut's political class. The country's top three leaders – President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri – will face severe blowback if, out of wariness of Hezbollah, they don't force the group to place its weapons under the sole authority of the state. They will have only themselves to blame if their hesitation serves as ammunition for Israel to complete its mission of dismantling Hezbollah's arsenal by force, which might include reoccupying southern Lebanon. Mr Aoun genuinely believes in the oath he took to become President in January, which earned him popular applause and kindled hopes for a better future. He understands the importance of the international support he received for his presidency. His problem, however, has been to fall into the trap of starting a 'dialogue' with Hezbollah and getting caught in the clutches of its stalling tactics. By opening the door to Hezbollah's bargaining and the various Palestinian factions' refusal to disarm, Mr Aoun has imprisoned himself in a spiral of give-and-take, appearing weak and forfeiting much of the public's confidence. Mr Salam, meanwhile, seems to have retreated after making bold statements, affirming the need for Hezbollah to place all its arms under state authority, and speaking in a critical tone about Iran's revolutionary ideology. Whether his retreat is the result of a backlash he received from Hezbollah – or his own fears about accusations that he has abandoned pro-Palestinian positions from early on in his political career – the fact is that he has remained largely silent lately. As Mr Berri, the future of southern Lebanon rests on his shoulders. It's time for him to challenge his own political environment and Hezbollah's leadership, and to compel a choice between ties to Iran and loyalty to Lebanon. It's time for him to take proactive positions that spare southern Lebanon from Israel's aggression, and to return the decision of reconstructing the country to the Lebanese state – not leave it as a bargaining chip in Hezbollah's hands. The group's secretary general, Naim Qassem, once entrusted its affairs to Mr Berri when it was needed. Today, Mr Qassem and Hezbollah's leadership act from a deluded place of triumph, echoing Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's declarations of victory after its 12-day war with Israel, while completely ignoring Israel's capacity to devastate both Hezbollah and Lebanon. Hezbollah's leadership is turning a blind eye to the potential non-renewal of the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon – known as Unifil – which could lead to direct confrontation between the Israeli army and the ill-equipped Lebanese army, paving the way for a possible renewed Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. Mr Berri's responsibility today is, therefore, historic. It requires courage on his part to confront Hezbollah publicly, and to speak honestly to Lebanon's Shiite community. Everyone knows that reconstruction funding from western and Arab states won't flow unless Hezbollah hands over its weapons to the state. Everyone also knows there is a real opportunity to secure Israel's withdrawal from the five Lebanese hilltops it is currently occupying, and to reach a realistic solution on the Shebaa Farms thus ending the rationale for 'resistance'. At that point, it would be possible to demarcate Lebanon's land borders with both Israel and Syria. Hezbollah's tactics to avoid disarmament are fast turning into ammunition for Israel. One day we hear that the group is thinking about limiting its role as an armed movement without fully disarming. Another day we hear it might hand over more weapons on the condition that Israel withdraw from the south. What remains constant, as Reuters reported citing sources within Hezbollah, is that the group 'does not intend to hand over its full arsenal and will retain light weapons and anti-tank missiles to defend against any future attacks'. The weakness of the Lebanese state is the result of an equation it has created for itself, with its top three leaders having surrendered their sovereign authority and placed it at the mercy of Hezbollah. The talk of the trio demanding prior guarantees from US Special Envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack – including that Israel withdraw completely from southern Lebanon – is little more than a contrived excuse, a deliberate obstruction and a severing of the hand that the Trump administration is extending to help Beirut. The necessary guarantees from Israel are already baked into the border normalisation strategy, which is, in itself, the guarantee. Let's hope that the coming days bring reassuring surprises when Mr Barrack returns to Lebanon for talks. Let's hope for a fundamental shift in the strategies of the three leaders, as well as in Hezbollah's positions. But this requires serious American resolve towards Iran. Demonstrating seriousness means proving that Washington is truly determined to stop Tehran's continued investment in its proxy doctrine, which undermines the sovereignty of independent states like Lebanon. Whether Washington, and Beirut itself, can prevent Lebanon from becoming a victim of both Israel's destructive ideology and Tehran's expansionist ambitions remains to be seen.


The National
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