Dangerous weather predictions will get tougher after these Trump administration actions

USA Today

12 hours ago

The decision by the Department of Defense to stop providing data to NOAA is just the latest challenge for the agency this year.
The heart-wrenching July 4 flooding in Texas served as a stark reminder of the importance of accurate and timely weather forecasts.
Those forecasts were well done, more than a half-dozen meteorologists said, but as extreme rainfall events grow more intense, such tragedies are expected to increase. Further improvement to forecasts is critical, but the meteorologists worry that with the additional cuts planned by the Trump administration, the nation's weather and climate research programs won't be able to keep up.
The latest blow was the announcement by the U.S. Navy that it would no longer transmit data from the aging satellites past June 30, roughly 15 months earlier than expected. Later, the department extended the deadline to July 31.
Without those satellite images, hurricane forecast accuracy could be compromised, say current and former scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Polar researchers, who use the images to measure the extent of sea ice, hope to acquire the same data through a Japanese government satellite instead.
In any other year, the satellite snafu might not have gathered much attention. But this summer, it exacerbates mounting concerns about the accuracy of weather prediction, amidst contract cancellations, staff reductions and other Trump administration efforts to reduce the federal bureaucracy.
'You can't keep taking tools away from people and expect them to get the same result," said Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami. Hazelton had been hired as a NOAA scientist last October and was dismissed in the Trump administration's widespread agency layoffs.
"Taking away any one tool isn't going to suddenly take away the ability to forecast hurricanes," Hazelton said. 'But as they start to add up, it becomes more and more of a problem.'
USA TODAY interviewed more than a dozen industry veterans, including a half-dozen former NOAA scientists, as well as independent researchers, who all fear that forecasts for hurricanes and other extreme weather events may become less accurate and that efforts to monitor the warming climate could be disrupted.
The flash flood deaths in Texas on Independence Day weekend are not being blamed on poor forecasts, but weather scientists say the tragedy is emblematic of what can happen when forecasts become less accurate.They cite several concerning developments, including:
◾ Hundreds of probationary employees were laid off and incentive packages sent hundreds more to early retirement, creating staffing shortages. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently told Congress there's a plan to hire more than 100 people to fill vacancies in the National Weather Service, but as of July 9, no such jobs had been posted on usajobs.gov.
◾Contracts have been canceled or caught up in a bottleneck by the new requirement that large agreements must be individually reviewed by a political appointee. For example, a fleet of autonomous ocean-going drones called Saildrones, which helped gather data used in hurricane forecasts, was not deployed this summer after a contracting issue.
◾Short-staffed weather forecast offices limited weather balloon launches. The balloons provide essential atmospheric data used in models that help predict hurricane movement, such as the balloon in Del Rio, Texas, that warned forecasters of the potential for heavy rain in Texas in early July.
◾Organizers at two conferences for emergency managers and local officials that traditionally feature keynote speeches and training by National Hurricane Center scientists had to scramble when the staffers weren't allowed to attend.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on a list of questions related to this year's developments.
NOAA responded to the questions with a brief statement about the National Hurricane Center, saying it is 'dedicated to its mission, and our dialogue with partners continues and remains unchanged.'
Climate programs cut back or stopped
The Texas flooding underscores the well-documented evidence of how a warmer Gulf increases the magnitude of rain that falls in the most extreme storms. However, efforts to document and explain the changing climate are being restricted by the Trump administration.
The website for the program that has overseen the writing of the Congressionally mandated National Climate Assessments every few years for decades vanished with no explanation. The project has been co-managed by NOAA, NASA and other agencies.
Rebecca Lindsay, science writer and former editor of Climate.gov, and other former NOAA employees said staff members have been told verbally to avoid using the word 'climate" and use 'environmental change' instead, but they weren't sure if that was to keep them out of trouble with political appointees or at the direction of political appointees.
Hundreds of volunteer scientists who had begun working with federal agencies to complete the next climate assessment were dismissed. The preexisting reports are being moved to the NASA website, but there's no date set for that yet, according to an email from the agency.
Additionally, Climate.gov, a science website that explained climate patterns and research, with roughly a million page views a month this year, according to its former staff, was shut down and redirected to NOAA's main climate page. The staff, housed in the climate office, was dismissed.
NOAA was also directed to review and analyze the purpose and traffic of its public websites on a spreadsheet dubbed 'OMB Low Hanging Fruit,' a copy of which was provided to USA TODAY.
The White House proposed reducing the NOAA budget by 30% and eliminating its Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which would mean closing its research laboratories and cooperative institutes with universities.
Some say US reputation at stake
Industry veterans say the resulting chaos, combined with similar actions at other agencies, is tarnishing the nation's reputation as a global scientific leader.
'We're in uncharted territory,' said Michael Mann, a climate scientist, geophysicist and director of the Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. 'I hear it constantly from my colleagues outside the U.S. They're shocked, they're horrified. They can't believe it.'
Countries around the world have often looked to the United States for leadership on science, and now, the United States 'is going to be left behind," Mann said. "China, Europe, Australia and countries looking to lead are recognizing this opportunity and they're reaching out to scientists in the U.S. and offering them very attractive positions."
He compared the situation to a runner tripping out of the gate in a 400-meter race. 'You're going to lose the race,' he said.
Many of the actions at NOAA follow recommendations from Project 2025, a report by the Heritage Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based conservative think tank.
It laid the framework for a conservative overhaul of the federal government and suggested NOAA's science was politicized and causing climate change alarm. Several of its authors had previously, or are now, working in President Donald Trump 's administration.
Scientists who spoke with USA TODAY freely volunteer that the agency isn't perfect and could make improvements. But they say the current direction will cost taxpayers billions and risk lives when hurricane forecasts are inaccurate and the nation fails to adapt to changes in temperature and sea levels that have already made some extreme weather events more intense.
The growing reports that NOAA and the weather service are being degraded by understaffing and budget cuts have alarmed some members of Congress, who raised the issues during recent Capitol Hill briefings. Senators from both sides of the aisle raised the issue during a July 9 confirmation hearing for Neil Jacobs, who has been nominated as NOAA administrator.
More than a week before the floods, U.S. Rep. Eric Sorensen, an Illinois Democrat and the only meteorologist in Congress, and Rep. Nathaniel Moran, a Texas Republican, co-sponsored legislation to require an urgent study to get 'a better picture of the state of our current weather forecasting abilities across the country.'
'Having access to accurate and reliable weather forecasting is critically important for everyone," Sorensen said, "whether you're a farmer trying to plant your harvest or a family determining if you need to shelter in place for a tornado."