Trump says ‘very wealthy' group to buy TikTok
The sale requires Chinese approval, and Trump has extended the deadline for the third time. Photo / Joe Raedle, AFP
US President Donald Trump says a group of buyers has been found for TikTok, which faces a looming ban in the United States because of its China ties, adding he could name the purchasers in two weeks.
'We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way,' Trump said in an
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Scoop
5 hours ago
- Scoop
The Ceasefire Bolstered Confidence, And Commodity Currencies
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran captivated market attention last week. Risk appetite returned, and oil prices are back trading at levels seen prior to the conflict. We may have avoided a spike in petrol prices, but Kiwi households are still having to contend with a lift in food inflation. The cost-of-living crisis was meant to end. But inflation is rearing its ugly head once again. Talking currencies, our COTW looks at the highly unusual soft USD, in such an uncertain world. It has many talking about a new world order, and the end of the USD as a reserve currency. But we argue that we have NOT seen a material move out of USDs. Here's our take on current events Holding… holding… held. That pretty much sums up how we (and markets) were looking at headlines last week as news broke around a ceasefire between Israel and Iran – a truce 'orchestrated' by none other than President Trump himself. Despite a bit of a rocky start, the ceasefire continues to hold. The news bolstered risk sentiment, with equities rallying. Meanwhile, oil prices quickly unwound their recent spike and have returned to levels before the conflict broke out. To be honest, market movements during this period of escalated conflict had been more subdued than what you may usually expect in times of war, and potential disruption to oil supply. Maybe it was the more targeted and localised nature of the conflict. Or maybe the broader macroeconomic fundamentals of weaker global growth (thanks to tariffs) tempering oil demand. It's most likely a bit of both. But we also think markets may be becoming a bit desensitised to the constant stream of risk events that define today's environment. Meanwhile, movements across currencies continue to surprise us too. If we had spent the last 3 months deep in the Himalayan mountains, protecting endangered tigers, we would come out oblivious to market moves. If we were given the headlines only… we would have said the NZD should be in the low 50s (not 60s). Why? Well, a global trade war of such magnitude should hammer a (Kiwi) commodity currency. But it hasn't. A soft USD, highly unusual in such an uncertain world, has many talking about a new world order, and the end of the USD as a reserve currency (See our COTW for more). We're facing into many headwinds. But we're steadfast in our forecast for the Kiwi. We're sticking with our call for 60c by year end. Yes, given our brave calls of the past and because the Kiwi is basically oscillating around 60c today, it sounds boring. But boring it is not. We expect to see a typically wide trading range around 60c. If downside risks dominate, we could see the Kiwi dip back below 57c. A move less likely with USD weakness. And then there are the upside risks… low in likelihood, but could see the Kiwi pop into the 62-63c range. So, there's something for importers and exporters… and both will get their chance to play. Our forecast for 2026 sees a move in the Kiwi up towards 63c, as the global economy recovers (we hope) with further rate cuts delivered. That's our central scenario. Upside risks could see 65-67c (our 2027 forecast brought into 2026). But many are suggesting we're entering a very different world. And it's the beginning of the USD's end. That's hard to trade. Be sure to check out our latest FX tactical 'Vexing volatility, unusual uncertainty, & polarising protectionism' for more on our outlook on the Kiwi dollar and other key currency pairs. Here at home, we may have avoided a spike in petrol prices like we saw in the fallout of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. But households are still having to contend with a recent pick up in food inflation as well as climbing energy bills, council rates and insurance premiums. In an op-ed in The Post, our Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr, penned his thoughts on inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. 'The cost-of-living crisis has ravaged discretionary spending. It has been a volatile, and gruelling few (too many) years. And lower income households have been hit the hardest. Sharp spikes in inflation act like a tax. Households are forced to spend more on essentials, and must then cut back on discretionary spending elsewhere. That hurts.' Charts of the Week: It's a diversification. Not a dumping of dollars. In this new world, searching for safer safe havens, we have seen a rebellious weakening in the USD. But the moves lack conviction. The USD DXY has traded as low as 97.90(ish), taking out the lows of 2023 and '24. Is that worrying? Not really. We were much lower over 2020-21, even lower in 2018, and much lower between 2005 and 2014 (averaging close to 80 in the DXY with lows as deep as 70). So, 97 isn't low. We are not seeing a dumping of dollars. What we are seeing is a mild diversification out of dollars and into assets like gold, currencies like the Euro, and more speculative assets that have the potential to disrupt, namely cryptocurrencies. And it must be said: Trump wants a weaker dollar. MACA: Make America Cheap Again. The dollar is still the global reserve. If it was the end of USD dominance, we would see a much more meaningful flight out of US Treasuries. The bond market vigilantes have made much noise, but little movement. The US 10-year yield is stable around 4.4%, a level consistent with the economic environment plus a little term premium. The yield would have to be 100bps higher, around 5.4%, to get us worried, and convinced in de-dollarisation. And such a move out of dollars would see a far more aggressive flight into gold. US$3,365 per ounce sounds high, and it is historically. But if you truly want out of fiat currencies, it should be higher. Although Bitcoin has had a fair run, cryptos would also get more (consistent) interest without USDs. The lack of conviction in the flight to safety trade may also reflect the fact that markets simply care less. Despite (depressing) headlines and daunting dealing room discussions ('are we on the brink of WWIII?'), financial markets are quizzically calm. There was more panic in the fallout of President Trump's Liberation Day back in April. The VIX – 'fear index – shot up above 50 for only the fourth time in history. In today's abnormal times, its back running at 'normal' levels. Getting out of US dollars is harder than you think. The Euro has been an obvious (next largest, next best) option. But we must remind readers that it was only 12-14 years ago when we had the European debt crisis… remember Grexit? Serious strategists at the time were predicting the end of the EU altogether… a view many still think is inevitable without fiscal union. So, the EU has problems. Clearly the Swiss francs and Japanese yen hold dear to the hearts of panicked investors. But they too have issues around the strength of their currencies at times… remember the Swiss dropping its peg in 2015? Now that's volatility. Yes, Francs always make sense, but to a point. So where else do you go? The British pound is an option… but they received a double notch downgrade in 2016 after Brexit. BRICS? Sure… but they've fallen around 30% in the last five years. And we only like the 'I' and 'C' in BRICS. So do you explore Asia? Yes, but slowly. We think the Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee will have a much larger role to play in global finance… eventually. But they want weaker currencies. It's hard when every country wants a weaker currency to help their exports. We can't all fall together. Because currency is a relative price… one goes down, the other up… and you need to find another safe home.
NZ Herald
13 hours ago
- NZ Herald
Trump's bill faces some Republican opposition in Senate as its estimated debt cost rises
The United States Senate ploughed ahead today on President Donald Trump's massive tax and immigration agenda as Republicans tried to swat away Democratic policy challenges and contend with its rising impact on the ballooning national debt. Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill would extend tax cuts passed in 2017, enact campaign
Scoop
15 hours ago
- Scoop
Bill Moyers And The Death Of American Decency
Monday, 30 June 2025, 10:25 am Opinion: Martin LeFevre - Meditations One of the greats of American journalism and political life, Bill Moyers, died in the last few days. In 1989 he famously asked, 'Can a nation die from too many lies?' The answer is now self-evident. Despite serving as Lyndon Johnson's press secretary during LBJ's fabrications and massive military buildup in Vietnam, and despite covering and commenting on the erosion of American values and decency in his career as a journalist, Moyers was the rare man that was able to remain uncorrupted and uncynical. Most Americans, including former Republicans, agree that the Republican Party is moribund, having become a cult-like captive of a despotic, petty, vengeful man that epitomizes the now dominant, darkest side of America. What many Americans refuse to see is that the Democratic Party is moribund as well. And only a few acknowledge that what Moyers foresaw in 1989 – the death of the nation's soul. In his characteristically clear and nonthreatening style, Moyers said of his colleagues, 'I think my peers in commercial television are talented and devoted journalists, but they've chosen to work in a corporate mainstream that trims their talent to fit the corporate nature of American life. And you do not get rewarded for telling the hard truths about America in a profit-seeking environment.' To his credit, Moyers quit as Johnson's press secretary in 1966 rather than be party to the mendacity behind the war in Vietnam. He later wrote: 'We had become a war government, not a reform government.' The closest you'll come to hearing the truth now, even in non-commercial national media, is the euphemistic refrain: 'We must not let ourselves become numb to the Trump Administration's authoritarianism.' The reality is that a deadness of heart and the death of decency in the United States is what gave rise to this monstrous president and his right-hand man, the hatemonger Stephen Miller. After all, he was elected not once, or twice in succession, but after an interregnum and last gasp of faltering decency in the form of Joe Biden. Of course the death of America's soul began long before the manufactured 'good' Gulf War pushed the American people's psyche and spirit into the abyss of Trump-Vance. Slavery, indigenous genocide, and the cold-blooded justification year after year for dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki led inexorably to the monumental mistake of Vietnam. Then came America's glorious victory in the cooked up Persian Gulf War, which killed over 200,000 Iraqis to less than 200 US soldiers, and supposedly exorcised the ghosts of Vietnam. It was, spiritually, the last straw. If decency is the minimal requirement for civility and the last guardrail against the abyss, just what is decency in a body politic? One definition of decency is 'the conditions considered essential for a proper standard of living.' Obviously 'standard of living' in a pathologically externalizing and consumeristic culture is viewed in strictly material, economic terms. More importantly however, it applies to the intangible bonds between a people, the true qualities beyond nationalistic identification that define them as an intact people, what Lincoln called 'the mystic chords of memory.' That's why Trump and his sycophants are hell-bent on banning books and institutional references to aspects of American history they want to whitewash, from slavery, to past and present genocides, to progressive advances in women's reproductive rights. In contrast, Bill Moyer's obituary spoke of how he 'masterfully used a visual medium to illuminate a world of ideas, producing some of TV's most cerebral and provocative series for public television.' That reads like a dirge not for the man but for the nation. Purblind political scientists even now talk as if the swings from one party to another continue, as if the pendulum isn't broken, stuck in the rafters of the right-wing extremism that have taken over America. They believe blather like this: 'It's pretty common after the party who loses the election and obviously has no clear leader, for there to be a period where it's not clear who the leaders are going to be. That happened after losses in 1980 and 1984 and 1988 as well. So it takes a while for that to shake out. That's not surprising.' Democrats are clutching at straws. It's absurd to believe that the death of this nation's soul can be restored by a change in party leadership, or barnstorming rallies by Bernie Sanders, or a charismatic mayor of New York. Wishful thinking is like dropping coins into a deep well and hoping to hear a tiny splash. For a rebirth to occur, the death must be fully acknowledged and mourned. Can the dead come back to life? Yes, but only if they see and own their deadness, and want their hearts restored more than they want to physically survive and have endless BBQs. Of course, many people take the attitude of the Guardian columnist who cynically wrote: 'Assume the worst, as I do, and your life will be much simpler. Expect those around you to fail and flout the rules that govern our world.' Such people become the worst of human nature that they despise. Bill Moyers saw the worst, and retained his humanity. So must we, the dwindling decent minority. Martin LeFevre © Scoop Media
