Russia's Top Diplomat Lavrov to Visit North Korea This Week
The Russian envoy will visit North Korea on a three-day trip from Friday at the invitation of the North's Foreign Ministry, the official Korean Central News Agency said Wednesday.
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Yahoo
38 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Russia's Crude Shipments Rebound Ahead of Trump Sanctions Threat
(Bloomberg) -- Russia's crude exports hit a one-month high, driven by a surge in weekly flows that coincided with a sharp drop in refinery runs. The increase came before President Donald Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if Moscow fails to make a swift peace with Ukraine. The Dutch Intersection Is Coming to Save Your Life Advocates Fear US Agents Are Using 'Wellness Checks' on Children as a Prelude to Arrests LA Homelessness Drops for Second Year Manhattan, Chicago Murder Rates Plunge in 2025, Officials Say Seaborne crude cargoes averaged 3.23 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 13, up by 3% from the period to July 6, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. On this measure, flows reversed the previous week's drop and rose to the highest since the period ending June 15 and are just above their year-to-date average. Russian refineries processed a little over 5 million barrels a day of crude during the first nine days of July, down by about 300,000 from a month earlier, with several large plants undertaking seasonal maintenance. That's likely to have freed up more crude for export. The country's oil production is also edging higher as part of the OPEC+ group's easing of output cuts. Volumes rose by about 40,000 barrels a day in June. Going forward, buyers of Russian crude face potential unspecified tariffs on their exports to the US if President Vladimir Putin continues the war with Ukraine. Trump made similar threats in March, which came to nothing. Whether he has really lost patience with the Russian leader is unclear, but his latest threats have been shrugged off by traders. If they are implemented, they would be the first serious move to curtail Russian oil shipments, rather than prices, since its troops invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia also faces the prospect of further action from the European Union. The bloc is moving closer to changing the price cap above which cargoes cannot be carried on EU ships or use services provided from member states. Under the proposed plans, the cap would be set at 15% below market rates based on a 10-week average and would be revised every three months. The volatile weekly shipments jumped by the most in five weeks, adding about 360,000 barrels a day to reach the highest since the first week of June. The Baltic terminals of Primorsk and Ust-Luga handled the most tankers since September in the week to July 13, with eight crude tankers leaving each of the ports during the week. The four-week average smooths out the big swings in weekly numbers, giving a clearer picture of underlying trends in crude flows. Crude Shipments A total of 33 tankers loaded 25.47 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to July 13, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was up from 22.96 million barrels on 30 ships the previous week. Crude flows in the period to July 13 stood at about 3.23 million barrels a day on a four-week average basis, up by 110,000 barrels a day from the period to July 6. Using more volatile weekly figures, shipments rose by about 360,000 barrels to 3.64 million barrels a day, their highest in just over a month. The increase in weekly flows was driven by a jump in shipments from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, which reached the highest since September, and from Novorossiysk in the Black Sea. Those gains were partly offset by lower flows from the Pacific. There was one shipment of Kazakhstan's KEBCO crude during the week from Novorossiysk. Export Value The gross value of Moscow's exports rose by about $190 million, or 14%, to $1.55 billion in the week to July 13. The increase in flows was boosted by higher average prices. Weekly average export prices of Russian crude rose for the first time in three weeks. Urals crude from the Baltic and Black Sea rose by about $2.30 a barrel to average close to $59.50 a barrel during the week, while the price of key Pacific grade ESPO increased by $2.10 to average $64.90 a barrel. Delivered prices in India were up by $2.40 at $69.70 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media. On a four-week average basis, the export price of Russia's crude shipments rose for a seventh week, with Urals from both the Baltic and the Black Sea and Pacific ESPO all rising by about $0.30-$0.40 a barrel. Using this measure, the value of exports jumped by 4% in the period to July 13 to average about $1.39 billion a week, the highest since March. Flows by Destination Observed shipments to Russia's Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to a four-week high of to 2.85 million barrels a day in the 28 days to July 13, from 2.73 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 6. The figures include about 470,000 barrels a day on ships from Western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 50,000 barrels a day on tankers yet to signal a destination. Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to July 13 averaged about 310,000 barrels a day, down about 50,000 barrels a day from the previous week. Shipments to Syria averaged about 60,000 barrels a day. NOTES This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, July 22. All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies. Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch. Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations. --With assistance from Sherry Su. 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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Why Trump's 50-day window may pose danger for Ukraine
This week marked a possible pivot by President Donald Trump regarding Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with his Monday announcement of a "really big" deal to provide Kyiv with new weapons and threats to impose further sanctions on Russia if it fails to agree a ceasefire within 50 days. Though Trump's decision was welcomed by leaders in Kyiv, Ukrainians and their supporters abroad also raised concerns that the 50-day window may offer Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunity to intensify his long-range strikes against Ukrainian cities and ongoing summer frontline offensive. Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament representing Zelenskyy's party and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told ABC News he was "cautiously optimistic," hoping Trump's announcement may signal a new "maximum pressure" campaign on Putin. "However, the 50-day deadline is of some concern, because Putin might take it as a green light to intensify offensive operations," he said. The Russian attacks over the two nights since Trump's announcement suggest Moscow remains unmoved. Monday night and Tuesday night saw a cumulative 667 attack and decoy drones of various types, plus one missile, launched into Ukraine by Russia, according to figures published by the Ukrainian air force and analyzed by ABC News. The previous 50 days before Trump's announcement saw a total of 9,618 drones and 349 missiles launched into Ukraine -- an average of around 192 drones and seven missiles each day. The pattern of Russian long-range strikes suggest the next 50 days might be even more difficult for Ukrainians. Since May, the scale of Russian attacks has been steadily increasing despite Trump's efforts to force a ceasefire and eventual peace deal. In May, Russia launched a total of 3,835 drones and 117 missiles, for an average of around 124 drones and nearly four missiles each day. June saw 5,438 drones and 239 missiles fired into Ukraine, with a daily average of 181 drones and nearly eight missiles. MORE: Russia 'didn't care' about Trump's weapons for Ukraine, tariff threats, official says Already in the first half of July, Ukraine has reported facing 4,003 drones and 89 missiles, for a daily average of 250 drones and more than five missiles. "Russia is not changing its strategy," Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram after Tuesday night's attacks, in which the president said at least 16 people were injured. "To effectively counter this terror, we need a systematic strengthening of defense: more air defense, more interceptors, more determination so that Russia feels our response," he added. Ukraine says many of those Russian drones have been aimed at non-military targets, including residential areas and city centers across Ukraine. Russia has maintained that it targets military and infrastructure sites. Trump defended his decision to give Moscow 50 days to act, telling reporters at the White House on Tuesday, "I don't think it's a long time. I think really the question should be asked, why did [former President Joe] Biden get us into that ridiculous war? Why did Biden bring us there?" Asked why he believes Putin's opinion will change in 50 days, Trump said, "a lot of opinions change very rapidly." He added, "It might not be 50 days, he might be much sooner than 50 days." But Russian officials gave a cold response to Trump's announcement on Tuesday. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Trump's "statements are very serious," telling reporters at a daily briefing, "Some of them are addressed personally to President Putin. We definitely need time to analyze what was said in Washington." Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, meanwhile, told the state-run Tass news agency that making any demands of Russia is "unacceptable," and that the Kremlin's position is "unshakable." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested that Trump is "under enormous, frankly indecent pressure from the EU and NATO's current leadership." MORE: Trump sending weapons to Ukraine, threatens 'severe tariffs' against Russia if ceasefire deal not reached in 50 days Responding directly to Trump's timeline, Lavrov said Moscow wants "to understand what this 50-day reference means. There were earlier mentions of 24 hours, then 100 days. We've seen this pattern before and genuinely want to comprehend the U.S. president's reasoning." As to the threat of new tariffs or sanctions, the foreign minister said, "We're already dealing with an unprecedented number of sanctions and managing well. I have no doubt we'll handle these new measures too." Perhaps most forthright was Dmitry Medvedev -- the former Russian president and prime minister now serving as the deputy chairman of the country's Security Council -- who wrote on social media that the Kremlin was unmoved by Trump's "theatrical ultimatum." "The world shuddered, expecting the consequences," wrote Medvedev, who, during Moscow's full-scale war on Ukraine, has become known as a particularly hawkish voice within Putin's security establishment. "Belligerent Europe was disappointed. Russia didn't care." ABC News' Hannah Demissie contributed to this report. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Why Trump has turned his back on Putin
When Donald Trump arrived at the White House for the first time nine years ago, he vowed to tear up the rule book, upend the world order and fundamentally change America's approach to its foreign relations. Nearly a decade on, aged by realpolitik and a war on the European continent and conflicts in the Middle East, President Trump is now treading a path that all the second-term presidents before him took when it comes to Russia. He spent his first term trying to appease Vladimir Putin, courting him as he did Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping, perhaps a mix of respect for other strong male leaders and business-like charm. Don't forget, Trump's worldview is shaped entirely by his time as a New York real estate mogul. He has his patch of the world, and Putin has his. There should be no reason for frosty relations. But Trump is not dealing with another property tycoon. Putin is a maximalist former KGB officer who cut his teeth in the murky underworld of the decaying Soviet Union where deception and double-dealing was the currency. Putin plays chess, whereas Trump plays Monopoly. Now in his second term, Trump has turned his back on the Russian leader latest decision to sell Ukraine weapons through NATO and threaten tariffs on Russia if they do not come to an agreement within 50 days is evidence of his frustration - and the first lady's advice. But 50 days is child's play for a man who deals in decades, if not centuries. No doubt the Russians are shrugging this threat off. Read more: Putin is playing the long game - he has seen out American presidents, and he will probably see the back of Donald Trump. For now, it seems that Ukraine has come out on top. But the only thing as constant as Vladimir Putin is Trump's unpredictability.
