2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Could we feel the impacts here in the Big Country?

Yahoo

10-05-2025

BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Heading into the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which starts June 1, we tend not to think much about it here in West Texas. We're pretty far from the coast, after all. But believe it or not, the Big Country doesn't always luck out when these storms form. Whether it's tropical moisture or outer rainbands pushing inland, there's always the possibility we could feel some impacts. Sometimes we don't see anything, but it's still important to understand the potential, especially as we head into the months when things usually ramp up.
Before we dive into this year's outlook, let's talk about the ingredients that are needed for a hurricane to even form in the first place:
• A preexisting disturbance: Most hurricanes start out as a dynamic tropical wave.
• Warm water: The ocean needs to be at least 26.5°C (or around 80°F) and warm through a deep layer of water to really fuel a storm.
• Thunderstorm activity: These storms use the ocean's heat for fuel, so that heat helps build and strengthen them.
• Low wind shear: Wind shear changes wind speed and direction over a short distance. Too much shear can tear a developing system apart before it becomes anything significant.
When these ingredients combine, you can get hurricane formation and rapid intensification. But just because the ingredients are there doesn't always mean it'll happen. It has to be the right balance at the right time.
Now that we've covered how hurricanes form, let's discuss this year's season and what to expect.
Even though hurricane season officially begins in June, it doesn't usually pick up until late August or early September. That said, storms can form early, especially when the pattern allows. It's not super common, but Mother Nature doesn't care what our calendars say.
Colorado State University (CSU) has already released an early outlook ahead of the official one from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Right now, CSU is predicting an above-average season. These numbers could shift as climate patterns change, but an insane amount of research backs these forecasts. They aren't guaranteed, but they are based on strong science. Here's what they're expecting for this 2025 season:
• 17 named storms (the average is around 14.4)
• 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2)
• 4 major hurricanes (average is 3.2)
Keep in mind that this isn't the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, but CSU is a widely trusted source for hurricane outlooks.
While the number of expected storms is above average, where those storms go is just as important. Right now, Atlantic waters are running cooler than usual for this time of year, which could limit development or weaken storms moving in that direction. But as we head into the warmer months, sea surface temperatures are expected to rise. That's something meteorologists and climatologists will watch closely heading into peak season (late August to September).
So, where does the above-average prediction come from? A big piece of that is the transition into ENSO-neutral conditions. That basically means the atmosphere isn't being influenced by El Niño or La Niña. Neutral patterns usually bring weaker wind shear, and combining that with warmer-than-normal water in the Gulf and Caribbean sets the stage for more activity in those regions. That's when we could start to see impacts here in the Big Country.
We're talking tropical remnants bringing heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, isolated intense storms with gusty winds, maybe even a brief tornado or two, plus other severe threats. We might not get the hurricane itself, but the ingredients that come along with it can still pack a punch. And while we most welcome the rain, it doesn't always come without some hazards.
As we head into late May and summer gets going, it's a good time to ensure you've got a severe weather plan in place, whether a system is forecasted well in advance or pops up with little warning.
Make sure to listen to your local meteorologist and download the BCH To Go app or visit BigCountryHomepage.com for the latest updates. Stay aware of the weather, Big Country!
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