MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: Could Reform's victory be the spark for an unstoppable new alliance?
While almost every European country has undergone something like a revolution, with new parties and movements, over the past 20 years, English voters have remained largely loyal to their two big, old parties.
Things have been notably different in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but the most populous part of the kingdom has generally kept hold of Tory or Labour loyalties stretching back for a century, especially in general elections.
Thursday's local election voting suggests that this is now coming to an end.
Both Labour's Sir Keir Starmer and Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch have much to worry about.
A general election fought with voters in this mood could leave them both in the dust.
Nigel Farage 's Reform UK has achieved far more than his previous movements, Ukip and the Brexit Party, could ever do.
So, are we on the brink of the sort of convulsions which have recently gripped France, Germany and Italy? It's hard to say.
Is Labour becoming an urban rump of privileged graduates, cut off from its base? Increasingly. Will the Tories be swept away? Not necessarily.
The first-past-the-post voting system (which has often served this country well) puts pressure on rivals to form alliances before elections, rather than after them.
Is Labour becoming an urban rump of privileged graduates, cut off from its base? Increasingly. Will the Tories be swept away? Not necessarily. Pictured: Nigel Farage poses for a picture with winnning candidate Sarah Pochin as Reform beats Labour by six votes to take Runcorn in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election
Mr Farage has shown in the past that he is ready to do deals with the Tories.
He did this in 2019 when he stood down Brexit Party candidates in Conservative-held seats, helping to give Boris Johnson the most convincing Tory majority since the Thatcher era.
The balance of power on the Right has shifted greatly since then, but can we see in this episode the faint shadow of a new and devastating political alliance? Let us watch carefully.
Send Letby case back to court
If we are serious about the punishment of crime, we have to be sure we are punishing the right person.
Long prison terms meet a reasonable public demand to see the criminal pay. They deter crime.
But what if an innocent person goes to jail? Imagine the horror of being locked up for years for a crime you did not commit.
A society in which such miscarriages were ignored would not be safe or just.
The recent case of Andrew Malkinson, wrongly imprisoned for a rape he absolutely did not commit, is a distressing example.
Now there are growing concerns about the case of the former nurse Lucy Letby, 35, convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven more.
Multiple whole-life orders imposed on her mean she will die in prison. But did she have a fair trial?
The Mail on Sunday today publishes a summary of the many doubts about this case, the weakness (and absence) of evidence, the wrong conclusions drawn from statistics.
Some doubt that any crimes were committed at all.
Voices speaking out against the safety of the convictions now include the distinguished barrister Adam King and the retired Supreme Court Judge Lord Sumption.
This controversy has undoubtedly been distressing for the parents of those babies. This newspaper has the greatest sympathy with them.
But if an injustice has been done, then it must be righted. We do not say that Ms Letby is innocent.
What we do say is that there is now so much doubt, the Criminal Cases Review Commission should urgently refer the matter to the Court of Appeal.
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BBC News
27 minutes ago
- BBC News
Starmer outlines six-day a week neighbourhood health hub plan after backing Reeves
Update: Date: 07:19 BST Title: Reeves doing excellent job, PM tells BBC after Commons tears Content: The prime minister has backed Rachel Reeves to stay on as chancellor for "many years to come" after she was seen crying during PMQs. In the Commons, Starmer didn't say whether Reeves would still be in her job at the next election. But later, speaking to BBC Radio 4's Political Thinking with Nick Robinson, Starmer said he worked "in lockstep" with Reeves and that she was "doing an excellent job as chancellor". He also insisted her tearful appearance had "nothing to do with politics". You can watch a clip of the conversation below. This video can not be played Reeves will be chancellor 'for a very long time to come', says Starmer Update: Date: 07:06 BST Title: 'Deeply upsetting' to see chancellor in tears - shadow minister Content: The NHS reform plan set to be announced today comes after yesterday's PMQs, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves was seen in tears. Shadow chancellor Mel Stride tells BBC Breakfast he sent Reeves a message yesterday 'just to say I hope that she was all right'. 'I felt for her,' he says. He adds it was 'deeply upsetting to see', especially as it was 'such a public moment'. 'We are all human beings at the end of the day - politicians are human beings - they do have feelings,' he says. But on the business side, he says the welfare U-turn shows the government 'is not gripping things', and adds the bond markets 'are quite twitchy'. Update: Date: 06:53 BST Title: 'It's reform or die' for the NHS, says Starmer Content: Keir Starmer during a visit to the Elective Orthopaedic Centre at Epsom Hospital in January In comments released overnight, Keir Starmer says the health system the government has inherited is "in crisis". "That ends now," he says. "Because it's reform or die. "Our 10 Year Health Plan will fundamentally rewire and future-proof our NHS so that it puts care on people's doorsteps, harnesses game-changing tech and prevents illness in the first place." This means, Starmer says, giving everyone access to GPs, nurses and wider support all under one roof in their neighbourhood, and "rebalancing our health system so that it fits around patients' lives, not the other way round". He says it's not an overnight fix, but the government is already "turning the tide on years of decline", with four million extra NHS appointments, 1,900 more GPs and waiting lists at their lowest level for two years. "But there's more to come. This government is giving patients easier, quicker and more convenient care, wherever they live." Update: Date: 06:45 BST Title: What will the 'Neighbourhood Health Service' look like? Content: Keir Starmer says today's plan will "fundamentally rewire" the NHS in England, with a focus on three areas: moving from treatment to prevention, analogue to digital, and hospital to more community care. What does that mean in practice? Update: Date: 06:43 BST Title: Starmer sets out 10-year NHS plan amid 'tough' few days for Labour Content: This video can not be played Watch: Starmer says past few days have 'been tough' Prime Minister Keir Starmer is today setting out a 10-year plan for the NHS in England, aiming to move the health service towards prevention and community care, as well as digitalising it. The prime minister says his NHS plan will "fundamentally rewire" the service, with the aim that by 2035 most outpatient care - including eye care, cardiology and mental health - will happen outside hospitals. But while the government is selling the "Neighbourhood Health Service" as a major overhaul, others are asking how soon people will see a difference - and exactly how, and if, it will work. Today's announcement follows Starmer giving his "full backing" to Chancellor Rachel Reeves after her tearful appearance in the Commons yesterday. The last few days have been "tough" for Starmer's government, the PM said, after a major climbdown over welfare changes left a hole in Labour's spending plans. Speaking to Nick Robinson, Starmer admitted he "did not engage" properly with Labour MPs on the issue, and praised Reeves for "doing an excellent job as chancellor". We'll bring you all the latest updates, analysis and reaction to all of the above throughout the day. This video can not be played Reeves appears tearful during PMQs
Daily Mail
37 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Starmer denies Reeves cried over him, says she'll remain in her role
Sir Keir Starmer today denied making Rachel Reeves cry and backed her to remain his Chancellor 'into the next election and for many years after' - saying she has done an 'excellent job' - following her tears in the Commons yesterday. The Labour MP looked crushed and sobbed in the chamber, triggering a new political and economic crisis, amid rumours she was about to be sacked after the Prime Minister refused to back her at PMQs. But last night Sir Keir denied a rift between them and said her tears had 'nothing to do with politics' or Labour's embarrassing U-turns on benefits - insisting she cried over something 'personal' without expanding further. 'That's absolutely wrong,' he said. '[it's] nothing to do with what's happened this week. It was a personal matter for her, I'm not going to intrude on her privacy by talking to you.' Asked if he was going to sack her, he went on to insist that Ms Reeves would remain in government - with him as PM. 'She's done an excellent job as chancellor and we have delivered inward investment to this country in record numbers. She and I work together, we think together', he said. 'In the past there have been examples - I won't give any specifics - of chancellors and prime ministers who weren't in lockstep. We're in lockstep.' The Chancellor is said to have told Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle she was 'under so much pressure' minutes before taking her seat for an extraordinary session of Prime Minister's Questions. She was forced to listen in silence as Sir Keir Starmer refused to say in front of MPs that she was secure in her job, as he was battered over his welfare surrender to Labour rebels. But the the truth about her tears is yet to be revealed. In an extraordinary moment that spooked markets, tears appeared to roll down Ms Reeves' cheek as Kemi Badenoch demanded a guarantee she would stay in No11 - something the premier did not give. She was seen being comforted by her sister Ellie - also a Labour minister - as she left the chamber, although Sir Keir did not speak to her. Ms Reeves' spokesman insisted afterwards that it was a 'personal matter' and he would not be 'getting into' the reasons. Downing Street said the Chancellor 'is going nowhere', had not resigned, and retains Sir Keir's 'full backing'. No10 and No11 both denied claims Ms Reeves had an argument with Sir Keir before they entered the Commons. Last night, Sir Keir told BBC Radio 4's Political Thinking show he worked 'in lockstep' with Reeves and she was 'doing an excellent job as chancellor'. But the Guardian reported that she told the Speaker about the strain she was under. She apparently broke down when she was privately rebuked by Speaker Lindsay Hoyle for giving long answers during Treasury questions yesterday. Health Secretary Wes Streeting (pictured) last night said Ms Reeves has 'toughness and hard-headedness... in spades' as he spoke out in support of the Chancellor. 'It's why with the choices she's made, not always the most popular choices, is creating the conditions for our economy to grow,' he told ITV's Peston. Mr Streeting added Ms Reeves has 'something going on personally, not professionally'. 'It's easy to forget that we're all humans as politicians and we have lives like everyone else,' he continued. Interest rates on 10-year and 30-year gilts - effectively the cost of government borrowing - spiked and the pound slipped sharply against the US dollar as the Commons scenes unfolded earlier. Just a year on from his election landslide, Sir Keir's authority has been left in tatters after his extraordinary surrender to avert defeat at the hands of Labour rebels. Ms Badenoch said he had made 'mistake after mistake', highlighting volte faces over grooming gangs and winter fuel allowance. She also pointed to a visibly-upset Reeves, sitting next to the PM, saying she looked 'miserable' and was being used as a 'human shield'. Last night Sir Keir effectively tore up his benefits reforms, which had been due to shave £5billion a year off spirallling costs by the end of the Parliament - but will now actually increase spending by £100million. The move heaped misery on Ms Reeves, who was already struggling to fill a black hole in the public finances that could amount to tens of billions of pounds. Touring broadcast studios this morning, Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden warned there would be 'financial consequences' - hinting that the tax burden will need to rise again. Ms Reeves has insisted Labour will stick to manifesto pledges of no hikes to income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT. And she had been adamant that she will not break her 'cast iron' fiscal rules. But she refused to guarantee yesterday that the hated freeze in tax thresholds will not be extended. In highly emotional scenes at PMQs, Ms Badenoch said: 'This man has forgotten that his welfare bill was there to plug a black hole created by the Chancellor. Instead they're creating new ones. They're creating new ones. '(Ms Reeves) is pointing at me, she looks absolutely miserable. Labour MPs are going on the record saying that the Chancellor is toast, and the reality is that she is a human shield for his incompetence. In January, he said that she would be in post until the next election. Will she really?' Sir Keir replied: '(Mrs Badenoch) certainly won't. I have to say, I'm always cheered up when she asks me questions or responds to a statement because she always makes a complete mess of it and shows just how unserious and irrelevant they are. She talks about the black hole, they left a £22billion black hole in our economy and we're clearing it up, and I'm really proud that in the first year of a Labour Government, we got free school meals, breakfast clubs, childcare, got £15 billion invested in transport in the North and the Midlands. We're cutting regulation, planning and infrastructure is pounding forward, building 1.5 million homes, the biggest investment in social and affordable housing, and of course the three trade deals.' Mrs Badenoch replied: 'How awful for the Chancellor that he couldn't confirm that she would stay in place.' Challenged afterwards why Sir Keir failed to give Ms Reeves the vote of confidence, the PM's press secretary said: 'He has done so repeatedly. The Chancellor is going nowhere. She has the Prime Minister's full backing. He has said it plenty of times, he doesn't need to repeat it every time the Leader of the Opposition speculates about Labour politicians. The Chancellor and the Prime Minister are focused entirely on delivering for working people. It's thanks to the Chancellor's management of the economy that we managed to restore stability, which has led to four interest rate cuts, wages rising faster than inflation and she recently delivered a spending review that invested in Britain's national renewal.' Asked whether the Prime Minister still had confidence in Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall (pictured), the press secretary said: 'Yes.' A spokesman for the Chancellor said: 'It's a personal matter which, as you would expect, we are not going to get into. The Chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon.' Aides to Speaker Lindsay Hoyle refused to comment on claims he had a row with Ms Reeves shortly before the PMQs session began. But MPs believe Sir Lindsay only rebuked Ms Reeves for giving excessively long answers at Treasury questions yesterday, with the Speaker surprised that she immediate became upset. The pair had already exchanged words on the subject during the session yesterday. One MP told MailOnline that the cause was a spat with the PM before that clash. 'There has been a major row before, just before she walked in. I think it was with Keir,' they said. However, both No10 and No11 denied that there was any argument between Ms Reeves and Sir Keir. After the session, Mrs Badenoch's spokesman said 'personal matter doesn't really clear it up' and 'you normally tell people what the personal matter is'. He added: 'I'm not going to speculate… I think we should find out what's going on.' Labour circles have been in a frenzy over how the Chancellor will handle the crisis in the public finances. One MP said: 'She is in massive trouble. This government has lost control. It is the worst politics of anybody - it doesn't matter whether you are left or right. Governments get this after four years, but we're not even at one year.' Rather than leaving the Commons immediate after PMQs as usual, Sir Keir remained on the estate for about two hours having meetings. Meanwhile, rebel ringleaders gloated that they had 'power' over the PM and stepped up demands for a lurch to the Left. Rachael Maskell (pictured), whose fatal amendment sparked the benefits shambles, urged a £24billion 'wealth tax' to pay for more handouts. Deputy PM Angela Rayner (pictured) is said to have brokered the deal with rebels, fueling speculation that she is positioning to succeed Sir Keir. Opponents jibed it is obvious that Sir Keir will not now lead the party into the next election. Appearing on ITV's Lorraine show, Ms Rayner insisted she did not want the top job, joking that it would 'age me by 10 years'. Told that Sir Keir looked 'tired' and 'exhausted', she said: 'It's a very challenging job. To be fair for Keir Starmer there's been a lot going on... There's a lot going on and the PM's been here there and everywhere doing the job for Britain.' Amid carnage at Westminster yesterday, the PM's carefully assembled truce with rebels dramatically disintegrated. Facing the threat of a massive revolt, Sir Keir opted to make yet another major concession just 90 minutes before the vote. Ministers pledged that changes to disability handouts will not be finalised until after a review - meaning that the package as it stands will actually make the current system more expensive than before up to 2029. Sir Keir - who is days away from marking the first anniversary of his election landslide - had already agreed that the benefits curbs would only apply to new claimants. There was mocking laughter in the chamber as Social Security Minister Stephen Timms (pictured) was asked how much the proposals would save now, and merely replied that the government would 'set out figures in the usual way'. Despite the humiliating manoeuvres, when the vote was held 44 Labour MPs still backed the fatal amendment and others abstained - although it was comfortably defeated by 328 to 149 as Tories largely stayed away. Shortly afterwards, the Bill cleared second reading stage by 335 to 260, with the rebellion growing to 49. It will now be scrutinised at committee, where there could be further problems. Mr McFadden told BBC Breakfast he is 'not going to speculate' on what could be in the Autumn Budget but there would be 'financial consequences'. 'This is one moving part of the budgetary picture, it does have a financial consequence yesterday,' he said. 'I'm not going to speculate on where the budget lands, because there are so many other different moving parts in it, and it wouldn't make sense for me to do that.'
The Guardian
42 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Pound calm after Starmer backs Reeves, following bond sell-off
Update: Date: 2025-07-03T06:24:50.000Z Title: Introduction: Bonds and sterling in spotlight after Wednesday wobble Content: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. All eyes are on UK bonds, and the pound, after both fell sharply yesterday amid speculation over the future of chancellor Rachel Reeves. Wednesday was a turbulent day for the UK bond market; prices of British government debt fell heavily as investors were gripped by concerns of change at the top of the Treasury. The selloff highlights anxiety that the government's u-turn on welfare reform has blown a multi-billion pound black hole in the chancellor's budget plans. Bonds slumped, driving up borrowing costs, after Keir Starmer failed initially to give his full backing to Reeves at prime minister's questions, with a tearful chancellor alongside him. The pound also suffered, falling by a cent against the US dollar as it slid from $1.3745 to $1.3636, making it the worst-performing major currency in the world. Starmer has now defended Reeves, saying her tears were due to a 'personal matter' and insisted she will remain chancellor 'for a very long time to come'. The bond selloff may actually have reinforced Reeves's position as chancellor, highlighting that the markets would not welcome a replacement who might be less devoted to fiscal discipline. Andrew Wishart, economist at Berenberg Bank argues that 'Investors probably saved the Chancellor', saying: By selling sterling assets investors have probably kept UK chancellor Rachel Reeves in her post. Financial markets initially reacted little to the government failing to get approval for savings in the disability benefit budget from its own parliamentary faction. But when the Prime Minister failed to say that a visibly upset Reeves would remain in her job during Prime Ministers Questions, UK assets sold off. The Chancellor has become synonymous with a fiscal rule of covering day-to-day spending with tax revenue. UK selloff signals that fiscal rules are not just for show #reeves #fiscal #gilts #macro #ukeconomy #ukmacro That fiscal rule may dictate tax rises in the autumn budget, as spending cuts could be too much of a political headache, judging by the massive rebellion against the welfare bill that has created a £5bn hole in the chancellor's plans. America's economy may take the market spotlight off Reeves this afternoon, when the latest US jobs report is released. It will show whether trade war tensions have hit hiring at US businesses. 9.30am BST: UK service sector PMI for June 10am BST: OECD Economic Survey of the European Union and Euro Area 1.30pm BST: US non farm payrolls employment report for June
