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Brent at $50, LNG at $7, 4 mt aluminium demand lost—Tariff tensions could reshape energy and metal markets

Brent at $50, LNG at $7, 4 mt aluminium demand lost—Tariff tensions could reshape energy and metal markets

Time of India28-05-2025
New Delhi:
Global trade tensions
could significantly impact energy markets with oil demand varying by up to 6.9 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2030, depending on the severity of tariffs and geopolitical conditions, Wood Mackenzie said in a report.
The energy consultancy outlined three scenarios—Trade Truce, Trade Tensions and Trade War—in its latest report titled Trading cases: Tariff scenarios for taxing times. These scenarios examine the potential outcomes for global GDP, oil and gas prices, metals demand and power sector investments.
'In the Trade Truce scenario, oil demand reaches 108 million b/d by 2030, with Brent averaging US$74/bbl,' the report said. Under the
Trade War scenario
, oil demand declines after 2026 and Brent crude drops to US$50/bbl.
Alan Gelder, Senior Vice President, Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Falling oil demand results in the global composite gross refining margin collapsing to break-even levels, creating pressure for the rationalisation of weaker sites, particularly in Europe.'
In the global LNG market, the Trade War scenario could intensify the projected oversupply.
LNG prices
are projected to fall from US$11.2/mmbtu in 2024 to US$7.2/mmbtu by 2030 in the Trade Truce case. Prices may fall further under a Trade War due to reduced Chinese demand and tariffs diverting US cargoes.
'Although tariffs pose downside risks to global LNG supply, it is possible there will be more investments in US LNG,' said Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President of Gas and LNG Research.
The power sector could also be adversely affected by trade uncertainty, particularly in the development of battery storage and renewable technologies. 'Unpredictable project costs are disrupting long-term strategies, particularly in battery storage due to China's supply chain dominance,' said Chris Seiple, Vice Chairman, Power and Renewables.
For metals and mining, aluminium demand may decline by nearly 4 million tonnes and copper by 1.2 million tonnes in 2026 under the Trade War scenario, the report noted.
Julian Kettle, Vice Chair, Metals and Mining at Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Even in a Trade Truce scenario, we foresee supply issues, while a tariff war could wipe out all projected growth through 2026.'
The report concludes that despite recent trade agreements, significant risks remain. Gavin Thompson, Vice Chairman, Energy, Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Lower economic growth will curb energy demand, prices and investment, while higher import prices will raise costs in sectors from battery storage to LNG.'
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Uncertainty around US tariffs will not be over after August 1, even with signed trade deals
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Uncertainty around US tariffs will not be over after August 1, even with signed trade deals

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Euro rises after US, EU agree to tariff deal
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timean hour ago

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Euro rises after US, EU agree to tariff deal

Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The euro gained on Monday following the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, the latest in a flurry of deals to avert a global trade war Meeting in Scotland on Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the deal, which will result in a 15% tariff on EU goods, half what Trump had threatened to impose from August U.S. and Chinese negotiators are due to meet in Stockholm on Monday with an aim to extend a trade truce and prevent steep tariff hikes. Meanwhile, investor attention is shifting towards corporate earnings and central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan."It could be a positive week, just purely from the fact that now we know the rules of the game, if you like," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank."Now that there is more clarity, you would think that not only in the U.S., but around the globe, there will be a little bit more willingness to look at investment, to look at expansions, and to look at where the opportunities are," he said on a NAB euro stood at $1.1763, up 0.2% so far in Asia. The common currency rose 0.2% to 173.78 said the EU plans to invest some $600 billion in the U.S. and dramatically increase its purchases of American energy and military equipment. The pact is similar to one forged with Tokyo negotiators last week that will see Japan investing some $550 billion in the U.S. and a 15% tariff imposed on its cars and other baseline 15% tariff will still be seen by many in Europe as too high, compared with Europe's initial hopes to secure a zero-for-zero tariff is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable trade pact with the U.S. No breakthrough is expected in the U.S. and China talks in Stockholm, but analysts said another 90-day extension of a trade truce struck in mid-May was U.S. dollar advanced on Friday, bolstered by solid economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve could take its time in resuming interest rate cuts. Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at this week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next dollar was little changed at 147.68 yen. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against major peers, fell 0.1% to traded at $1.34385, down almost 0.1%. The Australian dollar fetched $0.6576, up 0.2%, while New Zealand's kiwi dollar was flat at $0.6019.

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