London-Berlin by direct train: minister says ‘yes', expert says ‘no'

Independent

4 days ago

'Working with Germany, we're building bridges between our people and paving the way for a more sustainable, connected future,' said the transport secretary, Heidi Alexander.
She was announcing a plan for a direct train between London and Berlin. 'A new task force will bring our nations closer together and create new opportunities for tourism, business and cultural exchange,' the minister said.
A laudable aim – but how feasible is it? Over to Mark Smith, the international rail guru who founded The Man in Seat 61 website. After years of experience as a front-line railwayman, he has devoted the past 24 years to encouraging and empowering people to switch from planes to trains. He (like me) desperately wants rail to succeed.
You might expect Mr Smith to welcome the government's vision. But, he says bluntly: 'I don't think we'll see a direct London-Berlin train.'
Thousands of people fly between the English and German capitals each day. From the 6.40am departure from Gatwick on easyJet to Ryanair 's 10.10pm arrival at Stansted, there are 17 flights each way, each day. That represents 5,400 passengers – the equivalent of three round-trips by rail.
History shows that when capacity is added to an intercity link, the number of travellers increases. And Mark Smith is convinced 'the demand is there' for a London-Berlin link. He cites the new direct daytime express between Paris and the German capital. 'This eight-hour journey leaves heavily booked,' he says. 'Up to 75 per cent of tickets are for the whole eight-hour journey.'
London to Berlin would take around nine hours, routed via Brussels and Cologne. With a journey only 60 minutes longer than the trip from Paris, and London being a much bigger travel hub than the French capital, it is fair to assume that much the same would apply.
But the problem, says the Seat 61 founder, isn't demand – it's financial viability.
The Paris-Berlin train stops in Strasbourg, Karlsruhe and Frankfurt, and is allowed to convey passengers between all those cities. Under present security and immigration rules, that would not be possible for international trains to and from London. In addition, a EU-UK border would be needed in Berlin – together with a serious, semi-airline security check.
'That French train doesn't need to pay all the UK border and security costs, and can happily carry passengers between intermediate stations as well as end to end,' says Mark Smith.
'With staff costs, track access costs, and rolling stock costs for London-Berlin being effectively double that for London-Cologne-Frankfurt, I can't see it being viable.'
He estimates the proportion of high-spending business travellers on a London-Berlin run as close to zero – compared with perhaps 15 per cent on 'an airline-competitive four- or five-hour trip from London to Cologne or Frankfurt'. Eurostar says it aims to start running Anglo-German trains to Cologne and Frankfurt by 'the early 2030s'.
Even among budget-focused travellers it is difficult to see London-Berlin succeeding – because the airline industry is so effective at offering cheap deals.
Looking ahead to Monday 1 September, the first day back at work for lots of people, Ryanair wants £25 for its 1h45m flight from Stansted to Berlin. The lowest one-way rail fare (involving multiple changes) is £350. That's 14 times as much.
The air fare looks too cheap, the train ticket way too expensive. But even in the course of a decade, I can't see that gap narrowing to the point where those London-Berlin trains become competitive. I hope I am proved wrong.