The troubled welfare bill has passed – but at what cost?

New Statesman​

01-07-2025

Photo by Henry Nicholls -After removing the central point of the welfare bill – cuts to Personal Independence Payments – it passed this evening, 335 votes for and 260 against.. Now, Labour MPs have given their stamp to a bill that bares little resemblance to the cuts to benefits the government originally proposed when this process began. Stephen Timms, the social security and disability minister, announced the latest big concession from the government to the rebels just before 6pm. Shortly after, Andy McDonald, the fierce old Corbynite MP used a point of order to claim that it was no longer clear what MPs were voting on:
'So I ask the question, what are we supposed to be voting on tonight', he asked incredulously. 'Is it the Bill as drawn, or another Bill, because I'm confused. I think people in this chamber will need that clarification.' Another MP joked that she went out for a banana and by the time she came back, the bill had completely changed.
It was a moment of chaos that could have come at any time during the Theresa May premiership – except Keir Starmer's government has a working majority of 165.
The past six days have been torturous for the government. Last week, more than a third of Labour MPs backed a reasoned amendment which aimed to scrap the bill. Ministers were pushed out onto the defensive. Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting were locked in negotiations with rebels, trying to bring them round to supporting the bill. The Deputy Prime Minister, who is cementing her position as one of the government's most influential cabinet ministers, still couldn't do enough to prevent the big concession we saw this evening.
In the run up to today's vote, the government offered the rebels two concessions: pushing back the implementation of the cuts to Personal Independence Payments to November 2026 and announcing a review of the assessment process to be conducted by Steven Timms. The Work and Pensions secretary, Liz Kendall, originally told MPs the review would report in Autumn 2026, but this was met with consternation that if the changes to Pip were set to come in at the same time – what would be the point of the Timms review? Those changes to Pip are gone now. They may never come back before the Commons, leaving the Treasury with a £2.5bn hole in its spreadsheets. Liverpool Wavertree MP Paula Barker spoke for many on the backbenches when she described the way this bill played out as 'incoherent and shambolic'.
This vote followed hours of impassioned debate from both sides of the Commons. Marie Tidball, the only visibly physically disabled MP was openly emotional in her contribution, 'I cannot support the proposed changes to Pip,' she said, 'and since April I have been engaging with government at the very highest level'. Tidball said she would vote against the bill.
One thing was clear, even in the contribution of some of those who said they would be voting for Kendall's reforms: most MPs are cognisant that this was intended to be a cost-saving measure. Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, argued 'the whole origin of this bill was a demand to save £5bn'. He added: 'I simply say this is a ridiculous situation that the secretary of state has put us in. Withdraw the bill now.'
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This was a hollow victory for the government. Even though the bill passed, and these reforms will eventually be implemented, the management of its passage has been damaging. Many rebels are furious over how they were treated by senior members of the government (whether those who voted against will face any consequences remains to be seen). Starmer will need to do a lot of crisis management over the coming weeks to repair Number 10's relationship with the PLP. If not, who's to say any future disagreements between this Labour government and its backbenches won't be one hundred times worse.
But in some ways, it is also a serious failure for Starmer and his project. While some rebels are furious with how they have been treated, they also likely feel galvanised after winning this war of contrition with the government. In sustaining pressure on the government, they have succeeded in moulding these reforms to their own agenda. Following the concession that no changes would be made until the Timms review had reported, one MP told me simply, 'amazing'. The government have been backed into a corner. With the money saved by these reforms slashed in half, Labour will likely have no choice but to raise taxes in the Autumn, something they have repeatedly failed to commit to. The money will need to come from somewhere. Over to you, Rachel Reeves.
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