Monsoon to revive after 15-day hiatus
Conditions are also favourable for its advancement over some parts of Gujarat, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar during the subsequent three days, IMD said. Monsoon is likely to be in active phase with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rain (>20 cm/24 hours) at isolated places over south peninsular India as well as Konkan and Goa from June 13 to 17. However, heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely to continue over Northwest India, including Western Himalayan region, during the next two days and reduce thereafter, IMD said.
The IMD declares it as a heatwave in the hilly regions if the maximum temperature is over 30°C, with the departure also being 4.5°C or more above normal. For the plains, this is declared when the maximum is over 40°C and also 4.5°C or more above normal.
Further, monsoon is likely to advance over most parts of northwest India during the week of June 19 to 25, IMD has said in its extended range forecast on Thursday. This is earlier than expected. Maximum temperatures are likely to decrease over northwest India during that week. These are likely to be below normal over most parts of the country, IMD has said.
On Friday, the northern limit of monsoon continues to pass through Mumbai, Ahilyanagar, Adilabad, Bhawanipatna, Puri, Sandhead Island and Balurghat.
An upper air cyclonic circulation is lying over northwest Rajasthan and a trough is running from this upper air cyclonic circulation to Marathwada across Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha in lower tropospheric levels. An upper air cyclonic circulation is also over north Interior Karnataka and adjoining Telangana and Rayalaseema in lower and middle tropospheric levels titling south-westwards with height. A trough is running from west-central Arabian Sea to south coastal Odisha in lower tropospheric levels. A western disturbance is also impacting the Western Himalayan region.
There is likely to be light/moderate rainfall at some/isolated places accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph in Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh till June 19; also in east Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan till June 19. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely to be recorded in Uttarakhand till June 19; east Uttar Pradesh from June 17 to 19 and west Uttar Pradesh on June 19. Dust storm/ thundersquall (wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph) is very likely to be experienced at isolated places over Rajasthan from June 13 to 17.
Heat wave conditions are very likely at many/some places over Rajasthan till June 15 with severe heat wave conditions at some parts over west Rajasthan on June 14. Heat wave conditions are also likely at many/some places over Punjab from June 13 to 15 with severe heat wave conditions at isolated/some parts. Heat wave conditions are very likely at many/some places over Haryana from June 13 to 15 with severe heat wave conditions at isolated/some parts on June 14. Heat wave conditions are very likely at isolated places over Jammu-Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on June 14.
'A cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal next week. This will lead to an increase in rainfall. Rainfall activity will expand westwards and monsoon will cover nearly the entire country, including all of northwest India in the week of June 19 and June 25,' said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
'Monsoon flow is strengthening now. Monsoon is expected to cover the whole country by June 22 to 25,' said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
'Longer hiatus is now being seen during the monsoon progress. There is a systematic increase of hiatus days in recent years,' he added.
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