'A Miserable Deal': Ex-EU Trade Negotiation on US Tariff Agreement
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Yahoo
6 minutes ago
- Yahoo
China's export growth likely slowed in July as US tariff deadline looms: Reuters poll
BEIJING (Reuters) -China's export growth probably slowed in July, as manufacturers await clarity on whether Beijing can reach a deal with its top consumer market, the United States, or if President Donald Trump will reinstate additional tariffs on Chinese goods. Outbound shipments were expected to have risen an annual 5.4% in value terms, according to the median forecast of 34 economists in a Reuters poll, down from a 5.8% increase in June. Imports likely shrank 1.0%, reversing a 1.1% rise previously, with domestic demand still in the doldrums amid a protracted property crisis that has consumers tightening their purse strings. Trump's erratic trade policy - marked by multiple rounds of tit-for-tat tariff hikes with Beijing - has heaped pressure on China's export-oriented economy, posing a serious test to its long-standing growth model. China is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with the U.S. administration, after Beijing and Washington reached framework agreements in May and June to reduce non-tariff barriers such as in rare earth minerals and technology to avoid further escalating their trade war. Without a deal, global supply chains could face renewed turmoil from U.S. duties snapping back to triple-digit levels that would amount to a bilateral trade embargo. Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was close to a trade deal with China and that he would meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping before the end of the year if the world's two largest economies could come to an agreement. China's July trade surplus is forecast to narrow to $105 billion from $114.77 billion in June. Separate data from the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis on Tuesday showed that the U.S.'s trade gap with China shrank to its lowest in more than 21 years in June. Chinese government advisers are stepping up calls to make the household sector's contribution to broader economic growth a top priority at Beijing's upcoming five-year policy plan, as trade tensions and deflation threaten the outlook. And top leaders have vowed to step up regulation of aggressive price-cutting by Chinese companies that is pushing prices ever lower. But economists warn that reversing the current deflationary slump will be far more difficult than during the last round of supply-side reforms a decade ago, as the downturn now poses a broader threat to employment, which Chinese leaders have emphasised is a core component of social stability. Reaching an agreement with the United States — and with the European Union, which has accused China of producing and selling goods too cheaply — would give Chinese officials more room to advance their reform agenda. However, analysts expect little relief from Western trade pressures. Export growth is projected to slow sharply in the second half of the year, hurt by persistently high tariffs, President Trump's renewed crackdown on the rerouting of Chinese shipments and deteriorating relations with the EU. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
New York Times
6 minutes ago
- New York Times
Chinese People Are Known to Be Big Savers. Many Are Drowning in Debt.
China is a nation of savers. The Chinese government wants its people to spend more and save less. It also wants them to take on more debt, all for the sake of saving the economy from a four-year slump. The national financial regulator urged banks in March to expand consumer lending and offer more flexible repayment terms. Last month, policymakers promised to provide 'innovative' financial services to boost consumption. Yet many Chinese consumers are wary. An alarming number of them are already defaulting on their debt. From 2021 to 2024, China's total household savings grew 50 percent, as people scared off by a big decline in housing values stuffed their money in banks. During the same period, the number of loans that households could not afford to pay back nearly doubled. For Beijing, expanding access to credit may seem like a quick way to stimulate the economy. But this push for consumers to borrow risks deepening a growing personal debt crisis. Many borrowers, particularly young people, are caught in cycles of debt, driven by poor financial literacy, high youth unemployment and stagnant wages. Those caught in the cycle run the gamut: factory workers, young professionals and gig economy workers. They are people who barely make ends meet while living in fear of default, calls from debt collectors and an overwhelming sense of shame. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
New York Post
8 minutes ago
- New York Post
Michael Goodwin: Sen. Warren backing Mamdani is the latest example of Dems floundering — and their zany agenda
More than six months into Donald Trump's highly consequential second term, Democrats are still looking for their sputtering resistance movement to deliver some big victories. Instead, they've suffered repeated failures and are responding with an increasingly angry radicalism that has zero appeal to the hearts and minds of most voters. A recent Wall Street Journal poll found that a mere 33% of national respondents hold a favorable view of Dems, which the Journal called the party's lowest point in its polls over three decades. Advertisement It also found that a stunning 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the party. Those dismal results are the fruit of a run of bad candidates —think Kamala Harris and Tim Walz — and a scatter-shot strategy that consistently defies common sense and traditional American middle-class values. The impression is that party leaders and high-profile advocates are lurching from one temper tantrum about Trump to another, each delivered with the desperation of a Hail Mary pass. Advertisement They seem more concerned about the welfare of illegal immigrants, including gang-bangers, than about the physical safety and financial security of innocent, tax-paying Americans. Comes now the latest example of their zany agenda, this one courtesy of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. In a few brief remarks Monday, she managed to prove that the passing years have not dimmed her gift for poor judgment and terrible ideas. Major party headache Her new brainstorm threatens to become another major headache for her party. Advertisement Appearing in Gotham with socialist mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, Warren declared that 'New York City is the place to start the conversation for Democrats on how affordability is the central issue, the central reason to be a Democrat, and that delivering on it in meaningful, tangible ways that will touch working families is why we're here.' It's a pretty strange thing to say given that it was almost exclusively Democratic mayors, governors and lawmakers that created the affordability crisis she now bemoans. She went on to claim that Mamdani, the 33–year-old nepo-baby radical who won the Dems' mayoral primary, should be the party's national face. 'Bring it on!' Republicans say, convinced that he would be a major drag for Dems in the 2026 elections. Advertisement The GOP would be delighted to run against a party that features a radical leftist who never held a real job in his life. It's worth noting that four years ago, then-Mayor-elect Eric Adams declared himself 'the new face of the Democratic Party.' The idea never gained much traction, with his tenure soon swamped by the tide of illegal border crossers waved in by Joe Biden, as hundreds of thousands made their way to New York for free housing, food and medical care. Adams never quite recovered, and that was even before he faced federal corruption charges brought under Biden that the Trump Justice Department dropped. Nonetheless, the turmoil and critical coverage were such a burden that Adams passed up his party's primary and is seeking re-election in November as an independent. Although he and the NYPD deserve great credit for driving shootings to historic lows, recent polls show the mayor's support is stuck in single digits and sometimes falls below the slice of voters who say they are undecided. NY Dems shun him As for Warren's idea about making Mamdani the national model for the party, she is so deep in fantasy land that she's even out of step with leading New York Dems. They are avoiding the far-leftist candidate like the plague, which is what he could be politically in areas that are more balanced than the People's Republic of New York, where there is just one registered Republican for every six registered Dems. Advertisement And so Gov. Hochul, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries all have declined to endorse Mamdani, which is an exceptional rebuke to him and his platform. Normally, they would reflexively back the winner of the party's mayoral primary, but they look ahead and see his major positions — defund the police, hike taxes, boycott Israel and support the anti-Jewish mobs disrupting cities and college campuses — as a toxic brew that even if it prevails in the city, won't fly around the rest of the state or across the nation. They see him as a major burden next year, when Hochul will be seeking re-election and Schumer and Jeffries will be trying to guide Dems to victory in their respective chambers. Of the group, Hochul has been the most outspoken and explicit in shunning him. Advertisement Mamdani's plan to tax high-income New Yorkers would require legislative approval and her signature, and the governor made it clear that's not going to happen. Days before the late June primary, Hochul threw cold water on the tax proposals he aims to use to fund his long list of free things, including buses and child care. 'I'm not raising taxes at a time where affordability is the big issue,' she said in a TV interview. 'I don't want to lose any more people to Palm Beach. We've lost enough . . . so let's be smart about this.' Advertisement Hochul's answer was surprising in that she's usually an automatic yes vote for new taxes, congestion pricing being a recent example. But her answer was also clever in that she adopted Mamdani's theme of an 'affordability crisis' and turned it on its head to use it as a reason not to support him. She's right in the sense that when it comes to affordability, New York governments' addiction to high spending and taxing already are major causes. Trickle-down pain City and state regulations also amount to a mountain of expensive red tape that discourage construction as well as business and job creation. Advertisement Her congestion tax is a good example of the trickle-down impact. The price of every loaf of bread, bottle of beer and bag of potato chips sold in Midtown now includes a portion of the added tax she slapped on delivery trucks. Meanwhile, the state's enormous budget reflects the way the government mafia grabs a piece of every action. Albany is now spending $254 billion this year, more than $100 billion more than it spent a decade ago. Florida has millions of more people than New York, but somehow manages to make do with spending $117 billion. That's almost identical to the city's budget alone, which is $116 billion this year, up from $75 billion over the last decade. These exploding expense budgets do not include the numerous 'off-the-books' entities such as the MTA, public colleges and universities, the Dormitory Authority and scores of other lesser-known units that spend multiple billions of dollars they collect from the public. Just remember: As bad as things are, they can always get worse. And if Mamdani is elected, everything definitely would get worse.
