SIMMONS: No reason to believe Maple Leafs could ever win in the playoffs with Mitch Marner

National Post

18 hours ago

Realistically, what exactly are the Maple Leafs losing with Mitch Marner heading to Sin City?
They're losing one of the great regular-season players in hockey and one of the great offensive players in franchise history. They're losing a top-five right winger in the game, ranking alongside Nikita Kucherov, Mikko Rantanen, David Pastrnak and their own William Nylander.
They're losing a 100-point producer in an 82-game season. A 100-point guy who managed one goal against the Florida Panthers in Round 2 of the playoffs and one goal against Ottawa in Round 1.
The Maple Leafs have not struggled to make the playoffs in Marner's time in Toronto. What they've struggled to do is advance in the playoffs — and score goals in the playoffs.
So how do you replace Marner? You don't in a regular-season, 90-point kind of way. You do in a not-contributing-much-when-it-matters-most at playoff time way.
Examine Marner's history with the Leafs.
They lost in Game 7 to Florida this year, scored one goal in that game. Marner didn't score it.
They lost in overtime in Game 7 to Boston the year before. Scored one goal and it wasn't by Marner.
They lost in Game 5 to Florida in overtime in 2023. Marner didn't score in that game.
They lost in Game 7 to Tampa Bay in 2022. Marner did not score in that 2-1 loss.
They lost in that still-hurting seven-game series to Montreal in 2021. They scored on goal in Game 7. Marner had no goals in the series. None.
Before that, they were eliminated by Columbus, Boston twice and Washington — no goals for Marner in any of the clinching games. In three of those games, the Leafs scored just once.
Marner was a special-teams master with the Leafs. An instinctual regular-season wizard. The Leafs had the third best power play in his time here and were 14th on the penalty-kill. At playoff time, they were 20th on the power play, 25th on PK.
So to recap, he hasn't scored much in the playoffs, goal-wise, hasn't set up much at even strength in the post-season, and hasn't been a central figure on the Leafs power play or penalty-killing, neither of which have been up to up to Stanley Cup-winning standards in his nine playoff seasons.
Marner earned 53 assists in the past two seasons on Auston Matthews goals. Matthews will certainly miss Marner's touch and vision. The captain may have to change his game slightly, which he seems to do every season anyhow. He now has Matthew Knies as his regular left winger, which there is a certain comfort with. If you look at the history of great lines in hockey, often the first two parts are consistently together and the third part of the line rotates in and out.
Wayne Gretzky played with Jari Kurri and somebody. Mark Messier played with Glenn Anderson and somebody. Bryan Trottier played with Mike Bossy and a variety of wingers. Nathan MacKinnon played with Rantanen and fill in the blanks in Colorado. Doug Gilmour played with Joey Mullen in Calgary and Dave Andreychuk in Toronto.
The Matthews-Marner-Knies line had a chance to become the best line in Leafs history. It wasn't together long enough to unofficially become that. But the better Knies plays now — and unlike Marner, he has already established himself as a player built for playoffs — the more he and Matthews should bond.
The more Knies improves, the easier it will be to deal with Marner's departure. They have two-thirds of a powerful line with Matthews and Knies. Now they have to find the complementary third part, whether he's on the roster now or won't be until the season starts.
John Tavares and William Nylander give the Leafs a solid second line if they don't move Nylander up with Matthews and Knies.
Nylander has proven to be a playoff performer of some consequence. Tavares has not and neither has Matthews when compared to the degree of his talent.
High scorers don't always score at playoff time. Sam Bennett, who had a career-high 51 points, scored 15 goals this playoff season. That's more in one playoff run than Marner, the 100-point guy, has in his career.
Nicolas Roy, the third- or fourth-line centre picked up by the Leafs from Vegas in the Marner trade, is not an offensive player of note. But he has 10 playoff goals in his career. Three fewer that Marner. Roy is a 35-point player on average. Marner is a 90-point player on average.
So what are the Leafs losing with Marner? They're losing creativity. They're losing skating excellence. They're losing vision and hockey sense. They're losing defensive acumen. They're losing a great regular-season scorer with great great regular-season power-play and penalty-kill work.
And then playoffs began, year after year, without any real answers.
In the nine games that ended Leafs seasons, Toronto scored only 12 goals. Marner had none of them.
No goals for the hugely paid Mitch Marner. No reason to believe, after all these years, that was ever going to change here.