China exports beat forecasts in June after US tariff truce
Data from the General Administration of Customs said exports climbed 5.8 percent year-on-year, topping the five percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Imports rose 1.1 percent, higher the 0.3 percent gain predicted and marking the first growth this year.
China's exports reached record highs in 2024 — a lifeline to its slowing economy as pressures elsewhere mounted.
Beijing's efforts to sustain growth have been hit by a bruising trade war with the United States, driven by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, though the two de-escalated their spat with a framework for a deal at talks in London last month.
Monday's customs figures showed Chinese exports to the United States surged 32.4 percent in June, having fallen the month before, according to an AFP calculation based on official data.
'Growth in export values rebounded somewhat last month, helped by the US-China trade truce,' Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said.
'But tariffs are likely to remain high and Chinese manufacturers face growing constraints on their ability to rapidly expand global market share by slashing prices,' Huang said.
'We therefore expect export growth to slow over the coming quarters, weighing on economic growth,' she added.
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the figures showed Chinese firms were still 'frontloading' exports to the United States — accelerating shipments in anticipation of further tariffs to come.
The strong export figures 'help to partly offset the weak domestic demand and likely keep GDP growth around the government target of five percent in the second quarter', Zhang said.
'But the outlook for the second half of the year is unclear, as the frontloading of exports (to the United States) will fade out sometime,' he said.
Customs official Wang Lingjun told a news conference on Monday that Beijing hoped 'the US will continue to work together with China towards the same direction', state broadcaster CCTV reported.
The tariff truce was 'hard won', Wang said.
'There is no way out through blackmail and coercion. Dialogue and cooperation are the right path,' he added.
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