How did the Texas floods get so bad, so fast? Everything we know
The destruction and deaths are spurring questions about how things got so bad, so fast.
The conditions that led to the devastating storm began early last week, with Tropical Storm Barry's brief stint over Mexico leading its remnants into Texas.
That moisture settled over the state, but the jet stream didn't push it away.
1:29
Texas floods: 11 campers still missing from Camp Mystic, officials say
'So then you basically had all of these really incredibly wet conditions in the atmosphere and then basically getting wrung out like a sponge over an individual area, and it just wasn't moving a lot,' said Tom di Liberto, meteorologist with Climate Central.
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That, combined with the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico and moisture from parts of the Pacific Ocean in the west, led to the perfect conditions for the storm.
More than 30 cm of rain fell in Texas's Hill Country over a span of several hours early Friday, according to weather forecasting company AccuWeather.
The massive amount of rain sent water into the Guadalupe River, causing it to rise to a height of 26 feet in just 45 minutes, and a confluence of factors turning this disaster so deadly.
What's the terrain like?
The terrain of Texas' Hill Country, and an ongoing drought, also helped in creating the conditions.
'You have this intense rainfall on a landscape that you could characterize as being a thin layer of bone-dry soil,' said Michael Morgan, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
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'The ground was like concrete, but even beneath that thin layer of soil, it's on top of that soil, rust on top of limestone and granite and that contributed to very rapid runoff into the river system that further accentuated the flooding and helping that big wall of water begin to get created.'
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Locals know the area as 'flash flood alley,' but the severity of the storm and the fact it hit in the middle of the night caught many off guard even with warnings.
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A map showing the Guadalupe River which overflowed in heavy rains on July 4. Camp Mystic, which was among the locations hit by heavy flooding is also pictured. Global News
Were there any warnings?
The National Weather Service said in an email to Global News that forecast briefings for emergency management were conducted the morning of July 3 and a flood watch was issued that afternoon.
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Warnings were then given that night and the early morning hours of July 4, with 'preliminary lead times' of more than three hours.
At 1:14 a.m. Central time, the warnings cautioned of 'considerable' impact, a tag that indicates a high-damage threat to the region and triggers wireless emergency alerts on enabled mobile devices.
A flash-flood emergency was then issued for Kerr County as early as 4:03 a.m. local time, with another issued for the Guadalupe River at 5:34 a.m.
'What really turned this into even more of a nightmarish scenario was this happened at night, overnight, into a holiday weekend,' di Liberto said.
'So in a relatively rural area, sometimes it's hard to get cellphone reception or it's to get the word out for these things, flash floods coming down the river. It's the sort of thing that keep meteorologists up at night and unfortunately, this nightmare was a reality.'
There have been some disagreements, however, between Texas and federal officials on the forecast.
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Texas floods death toll rises to 70, 10 campers still missing
'The original forecast that we received on Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted three to six inches of rain in the Concho Valley and four to eight inches of rain in the Hill Country,' said Texas Division emergency management chief W. Nim Kidd.
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'The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts nonetheless.'
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Sunday said the National Weather Service did warn of heavy rain and potential for flash flooding.
'The problem with that is that, to most people in the area, flash flooding would mean one thing, not what it turned out to be, because they deal with flash floods all the time,' Abbott said. 'There's the potential for flash flooding, but there's no expectation of a water wall of almost 30 feet high.'
Meteorologists say the National Weather Service was mostly on point with its forecast, but said it can be difficult to predict a storm of this severity.
'It is such a unique set of circumstances that go into it,' said Global News chief meteorologist Anthony Farnell. 'You can portray risk, and as it starts to unfold, you can issue those warnings and then it's up to emergency managers to act on those warnings.'
Farnell said the wording of the warnings is also important, comparing flood warnings to flood emergencies and the idea that it can be 'life and death, get out now.'
A '100-year catastrophe'
There have also been questions about whether cuts to the National Weather Service may have impacted the response and the forecasts it provided.
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'I'll tell you, if you look at that, what a situation that all is and that was really the Biden setup, that was not our setup,' U.S. President Donald Trump said in comments to reporters on Sunday. 'But I wouldn't blame Biden for it, either. I would just say this is a 100-year catastrophe, and it's just so horrible to watch.'
Farnell and Morgan said staffing levels did not appear to impact the response, but noted funding for meteorological research can help improve forecasts.
'A lot of people are saying … the amounts were off, but there are certainly limits to predictability,' said Morgan, who previously worked with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during the Biden administration.
'But there's also further that we can do to improve the quality of the forecast.'
Farnell said warnings about tornadoes or hurricanes are ones that people often take seriously.
But with flood warnings, it's possible more work needs to be done to figure out how to get people to take those just as seriously as a warning about other severe weather events.
'There's a lot more that maybe we can do or at least study to figure out how do we get these warnings out when it's not a category 5 hurricane or an EF4 tornado,' Farnell said.
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'When it's a flash flood setup, how do we portray that risk to the public and maybe get them out of harm's way?'
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Winnipeg Free Press
4 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Texas county deflects mounting questions over actions before deadly flood
As deaths from catastrophic Texas flooding surpassed 100 on Monday, local officials in one of the hardest-hit counties have still revealed little about what, if any, actions they took to safeguard residents, tourists and visitors in an area known as 'flash flood alley.' At a series of briefings since the flooding on July 4, Kerr County officials have deflected a series of pointed questions about preparations and warnings as forecasters warned of life-threatening conditions. The county in the scenic Texas Hill Country is home to several summer camps, including Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian summer camp that announced Monday it lost at least 27 campers and counselors. 'Today's not the day and now's not the time to discuss the warnings, who got them, who didn't got them. Right now I'm only worried about public safety,' Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said Monday during an emergency session of the county commissioners court. Dalton Rice, the city manager of Kerrville, said Monday that authorities were reluctant to 'cry wolf' and order evacuations, adding that rainfall 'significantly' exceeded the projected amounts. He said officials had little time to react in the middle of the night, adding that qualified first responders were being 'swept away' driving through the initial rainfall. 'This rose very quickly in a very short amount of time,' Rice said. Dire weather service warnings In the 48 hours before the floods, the potential for heavy rains put precautions in motion as the state activated an emergency response plan and moved resources into the central Texas area. The National Weather Service issued a flash-flood warning at 1:14 a.m. Friday to mobile phones and weather radios, more than three hours before the first reports of flooding at low-water crossings in Kerr County at 4:35 a.m. The warning was updated at 4:03 a.m. to a flash-flood emergency. The warning included Hunt, the small town that's home to Camp Mystic. Girls who were rescued from the camp have said they were woken up after midnight by strong storms that knocked out power. Bright flashes from lightning strikes showed the river rising rapidly. It was not immediately clear what kind of evacuation plans Camp Mystic might have had. 'Flash flood alley' Local officials have known for decades that flooding posed serious risk to life and property in the region, and a county government report last year warned the threat was getting worse. Kerr County's hazard mitigation action plan reported at least 106 'flood occurrences' dating back to 1960. Local officials determined that another flood was likely in the next year and that 'future worst-case flood events' could be more severe than those of the past. The risk of a 500-year flood was 'not negligible' and could lead to downed power lines, stranded residents and buildings that were damaged 'or even completely washed away,' the report warned. Climate change could make the river flooding more frequent, it noted. The region has known significant tragedy. A 1987 flood after a heavy rain prompted the evacuation of a youth camp in the town of Comfort. A wall of water quickly swamped buses and vans. Ten teenagers died. Decades later, the Upper Guadalupe River Authority, which manages the river watershed, released a video to YouTube titled 'Be Flood Aware 2017.' Viewed over 40,000 times online, the video outlines the history of the Guadalupe River, its history of tragic flooding and ways the public can remain safe when floodwaters rise. 'Terrain here is unique for flash flooding,' the video noted. It mentioned the dangers of a significant rainfall near the river's headwaters near Camp Mystic. The video noted the shallow headwaters with limestone underneath the riverbed. 'If you get 3 or 4 inches of rain at one time, that can be a real serious problem,' the video warned. The storm that hit last Friday dumped more than 6 inches (15 centimeters) on the area in three hours. The river rose 26 feet (8 meters) in just 45 minutes. In January 2017, the Kerr County Commissioners Court unanimously approved an application for a $975,00 grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to develop a flood warning system, according to transcripts of the meeting. Less than a year later, commissioners learned the grant was not approved. Most of that funding went to communities hit by Hurricane Harvey. Calls for an alarm The river authority has cited the need to develop a flood warning system in Kerr County as a top priority in its last three annual strategic plans. Kerr County commissioners considered several years ago a proposal for a flood warning system similar to sirens used for tornadoes in other parts of the country, including in nearby Comal County, which includes part of the Guadalupe River. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, who was not on the commission at the time but attended meetings, said the warning system idea was shelved because residents 'reeled at the cost.' Nicole Wilson, a San Antonio mother who took her daughters out of a neighboring hill country camp ahead of the flooding amid concerns about its evacuation plans, said county leaders need to push for one. Wilson launched an online petition calling for Kerr County to install flooding warning sirens to alert in real time. She plans to present the signatures to Gov. Greg Abbott when lawmakers convene in a special session July 23. She called a siren system 'almost a no-brainer.' 'I'm sure those children expected at any moment that an adult was going to rescue them,' she said. 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Global News
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- Global News
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Toronto Star
8 hours ago
- Toronto Star
Authorities will wait to address questions about Texas floods, as search for the dead goes on
KERRVILLE, Texas (AP) — Authorities overseeing the search for flood victims in Texas said Monday that they will wait to address questions about weather warnings and why some summer camps did not evacuate ahead of the catastrophic flooding that killed nearly 90 people over the July Fourth weekend. The officials spoke only hours after the operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old all-girls Christian summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, announced that they lost 27 campers and counselors to the floodwaters. Meanwhile, search-and-rescue teams carried on with the search for the dead, using heavy equipment to untangle trees and wading into swollen rivers. Volunteers covered in mud sorted through chunks of debris, piece by piece, in an increasingly bleak task.
