ASX set to rise, Wall Street advances amid doubts about Trump's tariffs
On Tuesday will come the latest reading on inflation across the United States. Economists expect it to show inflation accelerated to 2.6 per cent last month from 2.4 per cent in May.
Companies are also lining up to report how they performed during the spring. JPMorgan Chase and several other huge banks will report their latest quarterly results on Tuesday, followed by Johnson & Johnson on Wednesday and PepsiCo on Thursday.
Fastenal, a distributor of industrial and construction supplies, on Monday reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its stock rose 2.9 per cent, though it also said that market conditions remain sluggish.
Shares of Kenvue rose 2.3 per cent in shaky trading after the former division of Johnson & Johnson said CEO Thibaut Mongon is stepping down. Kenvue, the maker of Listerine and Band-Aid brands, is in the midst of a strategic review of its options, 'including ways to simplify the company's portfolio and how it operates,' according to Larry Merlo, the board's chair.
Waters slumped 11.9 per cent after saying it had agreed to merge with Becton, Dickinson and Co.'s biosciences and diagnostic solutions business in a deal valued at roughly $US17.5 billion ($26.7 billion).
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.42 per cent from 4.43 per cent late Friday.
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In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe. Germany's DAX lost 0.4 per cent, and France's CAC 40 fell 0.3 per cent. But indexes rose 0.8 per cent in South Korea and 0.3 per cent in Hong Kong.
Chinese shares advanced after the government reported that exports rose last month as a truce in a tariff war prompted a surge in orders ahead of the August 1 deadline for reaching a new trade deal with Washington.
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ABC News
an hour ago
- ABC News
Lowy Institute South-East Asia aid map reveals retreat of US and Europe from Australia's region
China is expected to fill a gap in aid funding to South-East Asia as the Trump administration dismantles United States development programs worldwide. The Lowy Institute's latest South-East Asia aid map warns some of the region's poorest countries, including Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Timor-Leste, will suffer due to $US60 billion ($92 billion) worth of aid cuts from the US. China would "continue to play a really big role as the region's infrastructure provider," said Grace Stanhope, a research associate with the Lowy Institute's Indo-Pacific Development Centre, who co-authored the report. "Infrastructure is certainly a soft power tool that China has used not only throughout South-East Asia, but in the Pacific, South Asia, all over the world," she said. Lowy's report cited China's construction of high-speed rail between the Indonesian cities of Jakarta and Bandung, as well as funding for Malaysia's East Coast Rail Link. Due to a delay in the public release of data, Lowy's report focused on the situation in 2023, since when major geopolitical shifts have occurred, not least due to the return of US President Donald Trump to the White House. After returning to office in early 2025, Mr Trump moved to abolish the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which had previously provided over 40 per cent of humanitarian funding worldwide. Major European development providers such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden — as well as the European Union — have also withdrawn some $US25 billion ($38 billion) from their aid budgets. Despite enduring poverty and reliance on external aid for its economic survival, Cambodia saw Sweden end its bilateral aid program in 2024. Lowy's analysis found that while spending for humanitarian aid responses to natural disasters in South-East Asia had increased, support for longer-term climate adaptation in the region remained inadequate. Yet, she said Western nations had not made good on financial pledges for middle and low-income countries to aid their transition to clean energy. "If that support is not being delivered, we're at political risk of being perceived as not following through on our promises," she said. The world's entire aid and development system had been "rewritten and rebuilt" over the past six months, Ms Stanhope said. The Australian Council for International Development's head of policy and advocacy, Jessica Mackenzie, recently told the ABC's Pacific Beat that the US was previously the top contributor to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which would also have major flow-on effects. "A lot of projects are still coming down the line that are going to be cancelled from those [institutions]," she said. "The US was working on a lot of projects with DFAT [Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade] … as soon as that US funding is stripped, the whole project stops. The ABC revealed last week that the US had returned $1.5 million to DFAT, which Australia had provided to USAID to deliver a clean water project in Indonesia. Still, the Lowy analysis noted that South Korea and Japan remained major aid donors to South-East Asia. Ms Stanhope said the East Asian democracies had larger development programs than Australia and were able to use public finance to lend to South-East Asian countries to develop sectors such as energy, transport, and communications. "Australia can stick to doing our more traditional, very human-based development, and we can trust that for the infrastructure and the bigger-spending, more visible [projects] … Japan and Korea are very trusted partners," she said. Australia's expenditure on overseas development assistance is among the lowest of comparable rich countries, providing 19 cents for every $100 of national income in 2024, according to Oxfam Australia. "Outside of the OECD, Australia trails behind countries like Malta and Croatia, who give more as a proportion of their economies," Oxfam Australia's acting head Chrisanta Muli said earlier this year. But Ms Stanhope said Australia continued to play an important regional role, for example by being the largest development provider to Timor-Leste and running specialist programs focused on gender, climate, and disability.

Sydney Morning Herald
2 hours ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
How Chalmers can square the budget circle despite stagnant productivity
As if Treasurer Jim Chalmers didn't have a big enough problem trying to improve the economy's productivity, we now know Treasury has privately reminded him he'll need to find additional tax revenue and reduce government spending to keep the budget 'sustainable' – that is, to stop the government's debt getting a lot higher. Some of the measures he'd like to take to get the economy's productivity improving could involve reducing certain taxes but, with the budget already overextended, he can't afford them. He's had to stipulate that all proposals for improving productivity at the productivity roundtable next month must involve no net cost to the budget. This suggests productivity improvement and budget repair will need to be kept in two separate buckets. If so, Chalmers will probably end up avoiding tax changes and sticking to reforming the regulation of certain industries, which would have little cost to the budget. But some measures to improve productivity may lead to increased tax collections. If so, it may be better to put together a big package of interlocking measures that together would help improve both problems. The successful reforms of the 1980s involved big packages, with their size actually helping to reduce opposition to them. When you propose reforms one at a time, those who lose from the measure can make such a fuss that the government decides it's not worth insisting. But you can put together a package so big that most industries and individual taxpayers would gain something as well lose something. So if I oppose the package because of my loss, I put my gain at risk. And not only that; I get a lot more pushback from the many groups and individuals who see themselves as net winners from the package. Even so, if I were Chalmers and cuts in government spending were needed, I'd tread carefully. The independent economist Saul Eslake sees government spending likely to be about 2 percentage points of gross domestic product higher in coming years than it averaged over the 40 years before COVID. In contrast, the former top econocrat Dr Mike Keating thinks that to balance the budget while making adequate provision of government services will leave a gap to be filled of about 4 per cent of GDP.

The Age
2 hours ago
- The Age
How Chalmers can square the budget circle despite stagnant productivity
As if Treasurer Jim Chalmers didn't have a big enough problem trying to improve the economy's productivity, we now know Treasury has privately reminded him he'll need to find additional tax revenue and reduce government spending to keep the budget 'sustainable' – that is, to stop the government's debt getting a lot higher. Some of the measures he'd like to take to get the economy's productivity improving could involve reducing certain taxes but, with the budget already overextended, he can't afford them. He's had to stipulate that all proposals for improving productivity at the productivity roundtable next month must involve no net cost to the budget. This suggests productivity improvement and budget repair will need to be kept in two separate buckets. If so, Chalmers will probably end up avoiding tax changes and sticking to reforming the regulation of certain industries, which would have little cost to the budget. But some measures to improve productivity may lead to increased tax collections. If so, it may be better to put together a big package of interlocking measures that together would help improve both problems. The successful reforms of the 1980s involved big packages, with their size actually helping to reduce opposition to them. When you propose reforms one at a time, those who lose from the measure can make such a fuss that the government decides it's not worth insisting. But you can put together a package so big that most industries and individual taxpayers would gain something as well lose something. So if I oppose the package because of my loss, I put my gain at risk. And not only that; I get a lot more pushback from the many groups and individuals who see themselves as net winners from the package. Even so, if I were Chalmers and cuts in government spending were needed, I'd tread carefully. The independent economist Saul Eslake sees government spending likely to be about 2 percentage points of gross domestic product higher in coming years than it averaged over the 40 years before COVID. In contrast, the former top econocrat Dr Mike Keating thinks that to balance the budget while making adequate provision of government services will leave a gap to be filled of about 4 per cent of GDP.