Tariffs on Russia Could Hurt Wary U.S. Farmers

Miami Herald

18-07-2025

American farmers are bracing for another blow should President Donald Trump proceed with his plan to impose steep tariffs on goods imported from Russia, raising the price of a key ingredient in crop production.
The United States imported $1.3 billion worth of fertilizer -- mostly in the form of urea and urea ammonium nitrate -- from Russia last year and is on a pace to bring in even more this year. Farmers of row crops like corn and soybeans, the biggest users of fertilizer, are already dealing with low sales prices and cannot afford rising input costs or a slowdown in supply.
Trump threatened this week to levy a 100% tariff against Russia, as well as high tariffs against countries that do business with Russia, if there isn't a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine within 50 days. It was not clear whether fertilizer would be exempted or not, or whether Russia would face tariffs, additional sanctions or a combination of the two.
'We already know these companies that are either importing fertilizer or otherwise in the stream, they are building in the potential for disaster into the cost already,' Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union, said in an interview. He said he worried that rising costs would force farmers to give up farming and sell their land.
Most farmers use fertilizers that contain one of three main elements: phosphorus, potassium and nitrogen. Russian exports of urea and urea ammonium nitrate supply nitrogen, while potash is a source of potassium.
Urea ammonium nitrate imports are under the most threat, said Allan Pickett, the head of fertilizer analysis at S&P Capital's agribusiness unit, since the United States imports 46% of that type of compound from Russia.
Few countries make ammonium nitrate because of its potential for danger and misuse. 'It is a wonderful fertilizer, and it is also quite good at exploding,' he said. Many countries restrict its sale or otherwise 'get antsy' with who produces it, Pickett said.
If the United States no longer imports urea from Russia, there could be shortages. Should American fertilizer companies produce more, farmers would have to agree to pay more so the companies had an incentive to switch to making it. Anybody can make urea-based fertilizers, but they require a great deal of energy. Russia's vast stores of natural gas make it more cost-effective to develop there.
Fertilizer accounts for about 15% of an average farmer's input costs, said Veronica Nigh, the senior economist at the Fertilizer Institute, a trade group. Fertilizer prices were steady for several years before 2020, she said, but they have been on the rise since then.
Costs went up during the pandemic when supply chains were disrupted. The United States imposed sanctions on Belarus, a major fertilizer producer, over human rights abuses. And while fertilizer was exempted from the sanctions on Russia, the war in Ukraine disrupted Russian shipping companies and has made some American businesses wary of dealing with suppliers from that country.
More recently, Trump's uneven tariff policies, as well as conflicts in the Middle East, have slowed trade in fertilizer. In April and May, imports of nitrogen were down 22% from last year, and imports of potash were down 16%, Nigh said.
'The threat matters a lot, too,' she added. 'What we have seen in trade is the importers and exporters have been less excited about exporting to the U.S. market for fear the policy will change between the time they write the contract and make the sale.'
But recent tariff volatility has actually caused an increase in fertilizer imports from Russia. While Trump has subjected most countries to a flat 10% tariff, Russia has been able to avoid that. Total imports of urea into the United States are down 18% this year, but imports of urea from Russia are up 34%, Nigh said. Total imports of all goods from Russia were up 23% during the first five months of 2025, according to the Census Bureau.
The fertilizer situation isn't dire, analysts and economists said. The United States is largely self-sufficient in phosphorus, and with time it can overcome any shortages in urea or ammonium nitrate. The country does import more than 90% of its potash, and most of that comes from Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney recently said, however, that there was little hope of Canada's avoiding U.S. tariffs, which could also apply to potash.
Costs don't have to balloon for farmers to feel the pinch, as margins are lower. A bushel of corn is selling between $4 and $5, when a few years ago it was selling for more than $7. A bushel of soybeans sells for $10, compared with $16 a few years ago. The disparity between the prices that crop farmers receive and the input costs they pay is greater than it had been in years.
Most farmers have a good idea of what the likely value of their crop is and work backward to determine what they can spend on inputs to make a profit. And most of them will still use the usual amount of nitrogen.
But with their remaining money, they will buy whatever phosphorus and potassium they can, or perhaps skip a season and hope their soil already has enough. Maybe they will forgo buying a new tractor or making any repairs to equipment.
'There is an absolutely a direct correlation between the amount of nitrogen applied and absolutely potential yield of that crop,' said Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, a brokerage firm. 'If you cut nitrogen, you cut the yield.'
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
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