UFC 318 Fight Card: Odds, Lines, Prop Bets, Predictions And Picks

Forbes

18-07-2025

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: (L-R) Opponents Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier face off during ... More the UFC 318 press conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
Saturday's UFC 318 fight card features a high-stakes lightweight matchup in the main event. In that contest, Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third and final time. At stake in what will be Poirier's retirement matchup is Holloway's ceremonial BMF title. In the UFC 318 co-main event, top-15 ranked middleweights Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov meet in a pivotal matchup. Below, we look at the betting odds, line movement, potential prop bets, and picks for the UFC 318 main card.
UFC 318 takes place on Saturday, July 18, from Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.
The UFC 318 PPV fight card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass. Forbes UFC Announces First Nine Fights For UFC 319 PPV Fight Card By Trent Reinsmith
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: (L-R) Opponents Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier face off during ... More the UFC 318 press conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
Dustin Poirier (30-9-0-1) has been a UFC fighter since 2011. At the time he had a 7-1 record. Between 2011 and 2018, Poirier went 16-4-0-1, picking up notable wins over Max Holloway, Bobby Green, Jim Miller, Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. His losses during that stretch came to The Korean Zombie, Cub Swanson, Conor McGregor, and Michael Johnson.
Poirier's wins over Miller, Pettis, Gaethje, and Alvarez set him up to fight for the interim UFC lightweight title against then-UFC featherweight titleholder Max Holloway. Poirier was the No. 3 ranked fighter in the UFC 155-pound division at the time, April 2019. Poirier claimed the interim crown with a decision win.
In September 2019, Poirier faced Khabib Nurmagomedov in a title unification bout. Nurmagomedov won that contest by third-round submission.
Three wins after that, including two TKO victories over Conor McGregor, put Poirier in another lightweight title fight. He lost that battle to Charles Oliveira, falling to a rear-naked choke in the third round of their December 2021 matchup.
The 36-year-old Poirier is 2-2 since that setback with wins over Michael Chandler and Benoit Saint Denis. Poirier's losses during that run came against Justin Gaethje for the BMF title and, most recently, opposite Islam Makhachev for the UFC lightweight title at UFC 302 in June 2024.
Poirier has 15 fight-night bonus awards, which ties him for fourth all-time in that category. Poirier is the No. 6 ranked UFC lightweight.
Max Holloway (26-8) has been with the UFC since 2012. If there's a stat that the UFC tracks, chances are Holloway is among the leaders. He holds the UFC featherweight record for wins (20), finishes (11), knockouts (nine), win streak (13 straight), total fight time (6:58:57), significant strikes landed (2,971), and total strikes landed (3,180). Holloway's overall UFC records include significant strikes landed (3,457) and total strikes landed (3,706).
Holloway's run as UFC featherweight champ began in June 2017 when he knocked out Jose Aldo. Holloway entered that contest as the interim champ, a belt he won by knocking out Anthony Pettis in December 2016. He defended his title against Aldo (TKO), Brian Ortega (TKO), and Frankie Edgar (decision). He also attempted to win the interim UFC lightweight belt during that run, but he fell short, dropping a decision to Dustin Poirier.
Holloway's championship run ended in December 2019 when Alexander Volkanovski beat him by decision. Volkanovski retained the title in an immediate rematch.
Wins over Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez earned Holloway another shot at Volkanovski and his title in July 2022, but the champ retained his belt with a decision win.
Holloway followed that setback with wins over Arnold Allen, the Korean Zombie, and Justin Gaethje. The Gaethje victory, a fight that many voted 'Fight of the Year' and 'Knockout of the Year,' earned Holloway the BMF title. That fight took place at 155 pounds.
Holloway followed his BMF title win with the first knockout loss of his career, falling to Ilia Topuria in a UFC featherweight title fight in October 2024.
Holloway was recently removed from the UFC featherweight rankings per his request. He is ranked at No. 5 at 155 pounds and sits at No. 11 in the pound-for-pound rankings.
When the betting lines opened for this fight, Holloway was the -125 betting favorite over the +105 Poirier. Today, Holloway is listed at -140, while Poirier checks in at +115.
Bettors are leaning toward the hometown fighter. Poirier has picked up 76 percent of the bets and 64 percent of the handle.
One thing you need to do is forget about the first two fights between these two. The first matchup was Holloway's UFC debut. The second was Holloway moving up to lightweight for the first time under the UFC banner. Today, nearly nine years after that second fight, Holloway has developed into one of the best fighters in the UFC, a relentless pressure fighter who never stops moving, but who is also better at every facet of his striking game, which is where he excels. That's not to say Poirier isn't better as well, but his progress is more incremental when compared to Holloway's.
Expect an active and exciting fight on Saturday night. Poirier is the better all-around fighter, but Holloway is the better striker.
Poirier is under a lot of pressure in this matchup, and that could be a negative. He's fighting at home. The UFC has said this card has been built for him. He's retiring. If he can put all of that behind him and fight to his strengths, he has a good chance to win. However, if he looks to entertain and put his skills on the back burner, Holloway is likely to win because of his output and activity on the feet.
The pick is Holloway to win via decision, but a Poirier pick is not out of line. Also, look for the fight to go the distance. UFC 318 Fight Card Co-Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Paulo Costa Vs. Roman Kopylov
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: (L-R) Opponents Paulo Costa of Brazil and Roman Kopylov of Russia ... More face off during the UFC 318 press conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
Paulo Costa (14-4) was 8-0 and coming off a defense of the Jungle Fight middleweight title when he joined the UFC in 2017. He opened his run with the promotion with four knockouts and one decision. That decision, an August 2019 win over Yoel Romero, earned Costa a shot at Adesanya in September 2020. Adesanya retained his title in that fight, knocking out Costa in the second round.
Costa has not been an active competitor in the UFC. Between 2018 and 2022 he stepped into the Octagon once per year. He did not compete at all in 2023. In 2024, Costa went 0-2, losing a unanimous decision to former UFC middleweight champ Robert Whittaker in February and then dropping a split decision to ex-UFC 185 kingpin Sean Strickland in June.
Costa has not competed since his loss to Strickland at UFC 302.
Costa is 1-4 in his past five UFC outings. His only win during that stretch, which began with the Adesanya loss, was a August 2022 decision win over former UFC middleweight titleholder Luke Rockhold. Forbes UFC 318 Fight Card: Preliminary Card Odds, Picks And Predictions By Trent Reinsmith
A former Fight Nights Global middleweight champ, Roman Kopylov (14-3) joined the UFC in 2019 with an 8-0 record. Kopylov had seven straight knockout wins heading into his UFC debut, a fight he lost to Karl Roberson via submission.
COVID-19 and visa issues kept Kopylov out of action until October 2021. When he returned to the Octagon, Kopylov dropped a decision to Albert Duraev.
Kopylov seemed to find his footing after those back-to-back losses. Between September 2022 and September 2023, he went 4-0 with four knockout wins.
That winning streak did not earn Kopylov a spot inside the top 15 of the UFC's middleweight division, but it did get him booked opposite the No. 15 ranked Anthony Hernandez at UFC 298 in February. Hernandez won that fight via second-round submission.
Kopylov came back from that defeat to beat César Almeida at UFC 302. In his most recent outing, Kopylov stopped Chris Curtis via head kick, in a 'Fight of the Night' affair on A UFC Fight Night card in January 2025.
When the betting lines opened for this fight, Kopylov was the -250 betting favorite over the +200 Costa. Today, Kopylov is listed at -235, while Costa checks in at +190.
Bettors like Costa, who has 70 percent of the bets and 51 percent of the money.
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: Roman Kopylov of Russia is seen on stage during the UFC 318 press ... More conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
Paulo Costa is a well-rounded fighter. However, he doesn't often use his complete skill set. Instead, he looks to engage in striking wars, landing an average of 6.22 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.56 strikes per minute, which is not a great sign against a kickboxer like Kopylov.
If Costa looks to get the fight to the mat, he has a chance to pick up the win on Saturday, but he has not earned a takedown since he defeated Yoel Romero by decision in 2019.
Costa is a resilient fighter, so it's likely this one goes the distance, but look for the better striker, which is Kopylov, to win the decision. UFC 318 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Kevin Holland Vs. Daniel Rodriguez
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: (L-R) Opponents Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez face off during ... More the UFC 318 press conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
Kevin Holland (28-13-0-1) was 12-3 when he earned his shot at a UFC contract on a Dana White's Contender Series card in June 2018. Despite getting a win, UFC CEO Dana White did not offer Holland a contract.
However, Holland got the chance to fight for the UFC in August 2018 when Thiago Santos needed a short-notice opponent. Holland has been one of the more active UFC competitors since losing that contest by decision, fighting at middleweight and welterweight.
Holland followed the loss to Santos with an 8-1 run, a stretch that included five victories between May 2020 and December 2020. His last win of that run was a 'Performance of the Night' bonus-winning knockout of ex-Strikeforce champion Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza.
Holland's career has been up-and-down since the highlight-reel win over Souza. He has a 7-8-0-1 record since then, never winning, or losing, more than two fights in a row.
Holland is 2-2 in his past four outings, losing back-to-back fights to Roman Dolidze and Reinier de Ridder via stoppage before putting together a two-fight winning streak with victories over Gunnar Nelson and most recently, Vicente Luque.
The 32-year Holland's two recent losses were at middleweight, his wins, both of which earned him a 'Performance of the Night' bonus, came at welterweight, where he is the No. 13 ranked fighter. Forbes UFC 318 Fight Card: Early Prelims Odds, Picks And Predictions By Trent Reinsmith
Daniel Rodriguez (19-5) began his UFC career on a great run. Debuting with the promotion in 2020 with a 'Performance of the Night' bonus-winning submission win over veteran competitor Tim Means, Rodriguez went 8-1 in his first nine fights with the promotion. His only loss during that stretch was a decision setback to Nicolas Dalby in Rodriguez's fourth UFC fight of 2020.
A September 2022 split decision win over Li Jingliang at UFC 279 put him in the co-main event of a UFC Fight Night card opposite veteran gatekeeper Neil Magny. At the time of that scrap, Magny was the No. 13 fighter in the UFC's welterweight division, while Rodriguez was No. 14. Magny turned back Rodriguez, submitting him in the third round.
Rodriguez followed that setback with a TKO loss to Ian Machado Garry and a decision defeat to Kelvin Gastelum in a fight that was contested at middleweight after Gastelum had weight cutting issues.
Rodriguez has bounced back from that three-fight losing skid with a decision win over Alex Morono in October 2024 and a TKO victory over Santiago Ponzinibbio in May. A win over Holland would likely put the 38-year-old Rodriguez back in the UFC rankings.
When the betting lines opened for this fight, Holland was the -500 betting favorite over the +300 Rodriguez. The line has shifted. Today, Holland is listed at -600, while Rodriguez checks in at +425.
Rodriguez has picked up most of the bets (63 percent), while the majority of the money is on Holland (69 percent).
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: Kevin Holland is seen on stage during the UFC 318 press conference ... More at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
Rodriguez is a good boxer, but he is not as well-rounded or effective as Holland, and that is going to be his downfall in this matchup.
When Holland takes this fighting thing seriously, which he seems to be doing these days as a welterweight, he is a very good mixed martial artists. He is fast, clean and effective as a striker, and aggressive on the mat.
The big question is how does Holland get it done. The thing is, decision, knockout or submission are all viable picks for this matchup. With Holland being a much more effective grappler than Rodriguez, I'm leaning Holland via submission. UFC 318 Fight Card: Dan Ige Vs. Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: (L-R) Opponents Dan Ige and Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire of Brazil ... More face off during the UFC 318 press conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
Dan Ige (19-9) earned a UFC contract during Season 3 of Dana White's Contender Series, which took place in 2017.
Ige opened his UFC career with a decision loss to Julio Arce in early 2018. He put that loss behind him and went unbeaten in his next six outings. That stretch of victories secured him the No. 10 spot in the official UFC featherweight rankings, and a UFC Fight Night main event matchup against the No. 6 ranked Calvin Kattar in July 2020. Kattar won that scrap via unanimous decision.
Since facing Kattar, Ige is 5-6 in the UFC. He has faced tough competition during that stretch and proven to be a game competitor. Ige raised his profile in 2024 when he agreed to meet Diego Lopes on the UFC 303 pay-per-view card on a few hour's notice. While Ige lost to Lopes in that fight, which served as the PPV co-main event, he took the rising Lopes the distance in an entertaining battle.
Ige followed his loss to Lopes with a decision setback to Lerone Murphy at UFC 308. He is coming off a third-round knockout win over Sean Woodson at UFC 314. Forbes UFC Announces First Six Fights For July Abu Dhabi Fight Card By Trent Reinsmith
Freire (36-7) spent the bulk of his career under the Bellator banner. He made his promotional debut on the Bellator 15 card in April 2010. Freire first fought for the Bellator featherweight belt in 2013, losing by decision to Pat Curran. He got his revenge on Curran in September 2014, winning the belt via decision.
Freire defended his title twice before dropping a decision to Daniel Straus in November 2015. He regained the belt in 2017, submitting Straus via guillotine. Freire defended the title twice before adding the Bellator lightweight title to his trophy case.
Freire's May 2019 TKO win over Michael Chandler earned him the Bellator 155-pound belt.
Freire defended his featherweight crown three times as a two-division champ before losing a July 2021 submission to A.J. McKee. He never put the lightweight belt up for grabs, vacating the title in October 2021.
The featherweight crown returned to Freire's mantle in April 2022 when he defeated McKee via decision. Freire defended the belt twice in his third stint as the 145-pound champ. His most recent fight was a March 2024 TKO win over Jeremy Kennedy in a title defense.
Freire also dropped to bantamweight for a 2023 title shot against Sergio Pettis. Pettis won that contest via decision.
In December, Freire told MMA Junkie he wanted to be done with Bellator, which the PFL purchased in November 2023. He signed with the UFC as a free agent in February 2025.
Freire lost an uninspired unanimous decision to former interim UFC featherweight champion Yair Rodriguez at UFC 314.
When the betting lines opened for this fight, Ige was the -185 betting favorite over the +150 Freire. The line has shifted in favor of Ige. Today, he is listed at -220, while Freire checks in at +180.
Sixty-six percent of the bets have come in on Freire, while 89 percent of the money has been wagered on Ige.
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 18: Dan Ige poses on the scale during the UFC 318 official weigh-in at ... More the Royal Sonesta New Orleans on July 18, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
The UFC matchmakers did a nice job assembling this matchup. The results will inform the fans the promotion, just what they can expect from an aging Freire. While the Rodriguez fight showed that Freire will not be a threat for a UFC title, this contest will let everyone know if Freire has what it takes, at this point in his career, to compete against ranked competition in the UFC's featherweight division.
Ige is a tough and resilient fighter, who will get after it against Freire, and that aggression should be enough to carry Ige to a decision win against Freire, who did not show much against Rodriguez in his high-profile UFC debut. UFC 318 Fight Card: Michael Johnson Vs. Daniel Zellhuber
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: (L-R) Opponents Michael Johnson and Daniel Zellhuber of Mexico ... More face off during the UFC 318 press conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
Michael Johnson (23-19) is one of the longer-tenured fighters on the UFC roster. The 39-year-old has been with the promotion since 2010 when he lost to Jonathan Brookins in the finals of season 12 of The Ultimate Fighter.
Johnson has had an active, if up-and-down UFC career. While always game, he has a history of inconsistency. Johnson's longest winning streaks with the UFC are a four-fight run between 2013 and 2015 and a three-fight unbeaten stretch in 2012.
Johnson went 0-4 between 2019 and 2021. He ended that run with a 2022 knockout win over Alan Patrick. Since then, Johnson is 3-2.
He enters UFC 318 on a two-fight winning streak, beating Darrius Flowers and Ottman Azaitar. He has not fought since he knocked out Azaitar in December, winning a 'Performance of the Night' bonus in the process.
Johnson is at the point in his career where the UFC is booking him as a gatekeeper against younger fighters or competitors who are relatively new to the promotion.
Daniel Zellhuber (15-2) might be coming off a loss to Esteban Ribovics at UFC 306, but that fight was in the running for 'Fight of the Year' in 2024, and earned Zellhuber his third straight UFC Fight Night bonus. Zellhuber might have lost some momentum in that fight, but he did not lose much stock. He is looking for a bounce-back performance at UFC 318.
Zellhuber moved his professional record to 12-0 in September 2021 when he defeated Lucas Almeida to earn a UFC contract on a Dana White's Contender Series card.
UFC CEO Dana White praised both men for their performance that night, but offered the contract to Zellhuber, saying, "First of all, he's got an incredible chin, well-rounded game. He's only 22 years old, which usually I look for people who are a couple of years older, but he's 12-0 at 22 years old. You never see that.
'He said something about fighting like a real Mexican. This dude fights like a real Mexican. He's awesome. I love everything about him.'
Zellhuber dropped his UFC debut, losing a decision to Trey Ogden by decision. He rebounded from that defeat with three straight wins before falling to Ribovics.
When the betting lines opened for this fight, Zellhuber was a heavy -600 favorite over the +425 Johnson. Since then, Zellhuber has climbed to -650, while Johnson is the +475 betting underdog.
With the odds being so lopsided, bettors are looking for the upset. Johnson has picked up 80 percent of the bets and 75 of the handle.
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 17: Daniel Zellhuber of Mexico is seen on stage during the UFC 318 ... More press conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC) Zuffa LLC
This should be a fun fight, as Johnson is a game opponent who won't back down from any challenge, but Zellhuber is better than him everywhere. This matchmaking seems designed to give Zellhuber the opportunity to rebound from his loss to Ribovics.
The pick is Zellhuber to win via decision, but there is a chance for a knockout depending on how willing Johnson is to get into a slugfest with the younger harder-hitting fighter.
*Odds via BetMGM UFC 318 Fight Card Prop Bets To Consider
Holloway to beat Poirier by KO, TKO or DQ: +400
Poirier to beat Holloway by KO, TKO or DQ: +350
Poirier to beat Holloway via submission: +1200
Poirier vs. Holloway to end in decision: -150
Poirier vs. Holloway to go over 3.5 rounds: -240
Costa to beat Kopylov via KO, TKO or DQ: +550
Kopylov to beat Costa by decision: +110
Costa vs. Kopylov to complete two full rounds: -260
Rodriguez to beat Holland via decision: +950
Holland to beat Rodriguez by decision: +225
Holland vs. Rodriguez completes two full rounds: -120
Freire to beat Ige by decision: +270
Ige to beat Freire by decision: +120
Ige vs. Freire to complete two full rounds: -375
Zellhuber to beat Johnson via decision: +175
Johnson to beat Zellhuber via decision: +750
Johnson vs. Zellhuber to complete two full rounds: -145
*Odds via Bovada
Saturday, July 19, 2025 UFC 318 Fight Card: Location
Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA UFC 318 Fight Card: How to Watch Or Stream
Main Card: ESPN+ PPV
Preliminary Card: ESPN and ESPN+
Early Prelims: UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ UFC 318 Fight Card: Fight Card Time
Early Prelims: 6:15 p.m. ET
Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET
Main Card: 10:00 p.m. ET
We will have more on the UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 fight card as the event nears. Also, look for live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 318 pay-per-view card on fight night.