'Surprisingly large minority' of Manitobans support Prairie separatism, poll suggests

CBC

a day ago

Prairie separatism is growing in parts of Manitoba, a new poll suggests, with supporters more likely to be federal and provincial Conservative voters who live in rural areas.
A Probe Research poll of Manitoba voter intentions, conducted on behalf of the Winnipeg Free Press between May 28 and June 10, suggested a solid majority of Manitobans — seven in 10 — would vote to stay in Canada rather than separate.
That includes six in 10 respondents who would vote for Manitoba to definitely stay part of Canada.
But a "surprisingly large minority" of more than one in five Manitobans would vote for the province to leave Canada, according to Probe Research.
Those who supported Manitoba separatism in the poll are concentrated in rural parts of the province, and are among right-of-centre voters, Probe Research says. It found 56 per cent of federal Conservative voters, and 52 per cent of provincial Progressive Conservative voters, would support separatism.
A slight majority of those who voted for the federal Conservatives in this year's federal election, and Manitoba's Progressive Conservatives in the 2023 provincial election, would vote to either definitely or probably leave Canada, according to Probe Research.
"There are three times as many 'leave' supporters in rural and northern Manitoba as there are in Winnipeg, with men also more likely to be open to independence," a Probe report released on Monday says.
Seven per cent of poll respondents were undecided.
The Probe sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults has an error margin of 3.1 per cent and a reliability of 95 per cent.
Separatist talk makes Canada weaker: poll respondents
A vast majority of Manitobans agree that talk about the province separating from Canada makes the country weaker, but the poll found a large number of people agree that there are valid grievances against the federal government.
The poll also found more than eight in 10 respondents think that separatism discussions coming from Alberta make Canada weaker in the face of U.S. tariffs and President Donald Trump's desire to make the country the 51st state.
While Alberta's separatism movement is a widely-shared concern among those who responded to the poll, it also found that over six in 10 respondents did not take those discussions seriously.
Meanwhile, more than six in 10 poll respondents agreed that people in western Canada have a legitimate reason to be angry with the federal government.
"Manitobans are split, however, on whether having a federal Liberal government is bad for western Canada, with nearly one-half agreeing with this sentiment and slightly more than one-half disagreeing," the Probe report said.