UFC 317 betting tips & Topuria vs Oliveira best bets: Topuria & Pantoja to hit the jackpot in Vegas
Ilia Topuria to beat Charles Oliveira via KO or TKO - 8/13 William Hill
Alexandre Pantoja to beat Kai Kara-France via submission - 11/5 Bet365
UFC 317 takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend, with Ilia Topuria facing Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title in one of the biggest fights of the year.
Topuria vacated his own featherweight title earlier this year, setting his sights on the lightweight belt given up by reigning champion Islam Makhachev, and betting sites make him a heavy favourite to beat former champion Oliveira for the strap at 155lbs.
Oliveira, who holds the record for the most finishes and submissions in UFC history, beat Michael Chandler in his last fight for a shot at reclaiming the lightweight title, while Topuria comes into the bout after two recent knockouts of featherweight legends Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway.
In the co-main event in Las Vegas, Alexandre Pantoja takes on Kai Kara-France as the current flyweight champion looks to defend his title for the fourth time since winning it in July 2023.
The lightweight division will see a new champion this weekend for the first time since 2022 as Ilia Topuria bids to become a two-weight champ, while Charles Oliveira will be looking to regain the belt he was forced to vacate that year.
These are two talented fighters with skills both on the ground and with their hands, but it feels like the contest will be defined by Topuria's striking and Oliveira's ground skills.
Topuria will likely look to keep the fight as a standing contest and catch Oliveira with combinations, while the Brazilian will be aiming for a submission victory.
The problem for Oliveira is that in order to get a submission he will need to get dangerously close to a fighter who has proven to have excellent knockout power, and even if he does, Topuria's takedown defence of 92 per cent means the Brazilian could have a difficult time executing his gameplan.
Fight result
Best UFC 317 Odds
Bookmaker
Ilia Topuria
Ladbrokes
Charles Oliveira
Bet365
In fact, Topuria has only ever been taken down once in the Octagon, when he fought Bryce Mitchell in 2022. Add to that his explosive punching and accuracy – perhaps most notably demonstrated in a knockout of Holloway last year – and it becomes clear that Oliveira will have a tough time winning this one.
At 35, Oliveira has lost some of the athleticism he used to have and has proven to be susceptible to powerful punchers, which perhaps explain why UFC betting sites make the veteran such a long shot to win on Saturday.
There's little value on several of the main markets in this one, so with that in mind we're going for Topuria to win via KO or TKO, which is offered at around 8/13 with Willian Hill.
UFC 317 prediction 1: Ilia Topuria to beat Charles Oliveira via KO or TKO - 8/13 William Hill
Flyweight belt holder Pantoja faces the fourth-ranked fighter in the division in the form of Kai Kara-France, with the New Zealander having beaten Steve Erceg at UFC 305 to earn his title shot.
This will be Pantoja's fourth title defence, and the Brazilian is another heavy favourite on the night as he looks to add to a seven-win streak on Saturday.
The 35-year-old has not lost since 2020, and stands out as the clear best in his division thanks to an all-round blend of punching power, wrestling skills and ability on the ground.
This has helped him greatly in a division where few – if any – fighters have a standout single skill, with the Brazilian's elite jiu-jitsu perhaps standing out.
Fight Outcome
Best UFC 317 Odds
Bookmaker
Kai Kara-France
William Hill
Alexandre Pantoja
10bet
Kara-France will look to land the win via striking, but Pantoja has proven that he has the ability to submit the division's best strikers, as he did last time out against Kai Asakura.
And the New Zealander's losses to Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval – the latter of whom has been beaten twice by Pantoja in recent years – show that he is susceptible to counters from the division's more technical fighters, which could well be the case again this weekend.
Pantoja has won 11 of his fights via submission and 10 via decision, with the remaining eight coming via KO or TKO.
In terms of the method of victory, bookies have Pantoja to win by decision as 'most likely' at 15/8, but the better option may be on a submission win for the champ.
UFC 317 prediction 2: Alexandre Pantoja to beat Kai Kara-France via submission - 11/5 Bet365
NetBet, one of the UFC's official betting partners, are currently giving away a free UFC bet as part of their sign up offer.
New customers can currently bank £20 in free bets and 25 free spins from NetBet when they sign up, deposit a minimum of £10 and then wager £10 or more at odds of evens or greater on the sportsbook.
Once the qualifying bets has been settled, NetBet will credit punters with £20 in free bets, broken up into the following denominations:
1 x £5 bet builder (any sport, min odds 1.1)
1 x £5 acca (any sports, min 3 legs, min odds 2.0 per leg)
1 x £5 horse racing free bet (min odds 1.1)
1 x £5 UFC free bet (min odds 1.1)
NetBet are also giving away £2000 if anyone can predict the outcome of five fights at UFC 317, while there's the opportunity to boost the winnings on any UFC accumulators by as much as 50 per cent with the UFC acca boost.
Bettors should always practice responsible gambling. When using gambling sites be aware that sports betting can be addictive. Please take steps to remain in control of your time and budget.
The same applies whether you're using new betting sites, slot sites, casino sites, casino apps, betting apps, or any other gambling medium.
Even the most knowledgeable punter can lose a bet, so always stick to a budget and never chase your losses.
It's particularly important not to get carried away by any free bets or casino offers you might receive, both of which are available in abundance on gambling sites, but must be approached with caution.
You can stay in control by making use of the responsible gambling tools offered, such as deposit limits, loss limits, self-exclusion and time-outs.
You may also want to visit the following free organisations to discuss any issues with gambling you might be having:
NHS Help
GambleAware
Gamblers Anonymous
We may earn commission from some of the links in this article, but we never allow this to influence our content. This revenue helps to fund journalism across The Independent.
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