The United States is at risk of a Spanish-style electricity meltdown
Spain has been ramping up solar power for years, and set a record of meeting nearly 80 per cent of demand on April 21. On April 28, the day of the meltdown, solar provided 59 per cent of electricity, wind about 12 per cent, and nuclear and gas approximately 22 per cent.
But providing reliable electricity to people with intermittent renewables, such as wind and solar, is more difficult than with baseload power, such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear power. In a 2024 report, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a nonprofit international regulatory authority, warned of high and elevated risks of shortages for much of the United States from 2025 to 2029.
According to the report, electricity supplies are likely to be inadequate as coal and some gas-fired generators face retirement and energy demand surges due to data centre and artificial intelligence technology. The NERC authors stated: 'The trends point to critical reliability challenges facing the industry: satisfying escalating energy growth, managing generator retirements, and accelerating resource and transmission development.'
The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which provides electricity for 15 states from Louisiana to Wisconsin, as well as the Canadian province of Manitoba, is at high risk of suffering a shortage of electricity in the high demand months of summer and winter, for instance.
Subsidies for wind and solar, signed into law in 2022 by Joe Biden in the Inflation Reduction Act, are at the heart of the problem. The wind and the sun are effectively free sources of energy, but they don't blow and shine continuously. Continuous, dense power from gas, coal, and nuclear is needed as a backup for renewables. But since these do not get subsidies, there is less incentive for companies to invest in them.
The Solar Energy Industries Association states that solar energy represents 'energy dominance'. It argues that the tax credit for solar is 'one of the most important federal policy mechanisms to support the growth of solar energy in the United States' and has provided 'critical stability for businesses and investors'.
After their electricity meltdown, Spaniards may beg to differ. In the United States, oil, gas, and coal have no tax breaks in the Inflation Reduction Act, and these forms of energy are currently vital to keep solar and wind in operation.
The danger of potential blackouts is the reason that Donald Trump declared an energy emergency on his first day in office. He is taking several steps to avert the disaster forecast in the NERC report. These steps could also be emulated by the UK and the EU if they wanted to ensure a reliable grid.
They don't seem keen to follow suit, however. Coincidentally, or not, following the Spanish meltdown, a new report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change was published stating that 'any strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail'. But despite the chaos on the Iberian peninsula, the Institute's sensible recommendations were evidently deemed unpopular by Labour Party leadership.
President Trump, meanwhile, has asked the Environmental Protection Agency to end its Biden-era rules that would have required coal-fired and new natural gas-fired power plants to close if they could not eliminate 90 per cent of the CO2 emissions. He has also requested Congress to get rid of the billions in subsidies for renewables and other clean energy credits in the Inflation Reduction Act scheduled for the next decade. The combination of ending the subsidies for renewables and keeping open existing power plants should avert the blackouts forecast in the NERC report.
President Trump is going further by accelerating development of fossil fuel projects. He has reopened Alaska to oil development, and is fast-tracking permitting for fossil fuel projects, so approvals come in 28 days or fewer. He has asked the Environmental Protection Agency to reconsider the finding that greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane are pollutants. He has ordered the United States to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and other associated UN agreements, a process that takes a year.
The real winner from renewable energy use is China, which dominates wind and solar manufacturing. China makes around 75 per cent of the world's batteries, used in electric vehicles and to back up solar arrays. The tariffs that President Trump is placing on China, as well as removal of the tax credits, should tilt American energy policy in a more resilient direction.
The stability and reliability of the power grid cannot depend on subsidised renewables. It is crucial to maintain continuous, dense power from coal, natural gas, or nuclear energy to ensure a dependable electricity supply. The steps taken by President Trump to avert blackouts by promoting fossil fuel development and reconsidering emissions rules reflect a necessary response to the challenges highlighted in the NERC report. The Spanish disaster proves it.
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