US dollar rises, but on track for weekly drop ahead of Fed, BOJ
The U.S. currency showed little reaction to data showing new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately. That suggested business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter.
"The dollar regained some ground the past two days, after being on the defensive earlier in the week ... supported mostly by an encouraging set of U.S. economic data that argues for continued patience at the Fed," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London.
The greenback was set for its biggest weekly drop in a month, ahead of more tariff dialogue and central bank meetings next week, while sterling dipped after softer-than-expected British retail sales data.
Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at next week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves.
"We see some room for optimism at the (Fed) meeting," wrote BNP Paribas in a research note. "Economic uncertainty associated with trade policy, while not entirely resolved, has declined markedly."
Politics is a factor for both central banks, most dramatically in the U.S., where President Donald Trump once again pressed for lower interest rates on Thursday as he locked horns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Brown Brothers' Haddad said the Fed's monetary policy is being "overshadowed by the political pressure to lower interest rates. That's one of the reasons why I think the dollar's upside is limited."
The dollar managed to recover a touch against the euro late on Thursday, however, after Trump said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he could.
"The market relief was based on the fact that Trump refrained from calling for Powell to go, although that was based on Trump's view that Powell would 'do the right thing'," said Derek Halpenny, head of EMEA research at MUFG.
He added, however, that "the theme of Fed independence being undermined by the White House will unlikely go away and remains a downside risk for the dollar."
Falls against the euro and yen leave the dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other currencies, at 97.45, on track for a drop of 0.8% this week, its weakest performance in a month, though it bounced back 0.2% to 97.663 on Friday.
Meanwhile, in Japan, though the trade deal signed with the U.S. this week could make it easier for the BOJ to continue rate hikes, the bruising loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition in upper house elections on Sunday complicates life for the BOJ.
The yen was softer, thanks in part to below-expectations Tokyo inflation data, with the dollar last up 0.4% at 147.59 yen, though on course for a weekly 0.9% fall , the lowest since June 23.
The euro was flat at $1.1741 , but set for a weekly gain of nearly 1%, its best showing in a month.
The common currency took some support Thursday from the European Central Bank meeting. Policymakers left the policy rate at 2%, as expected, but the bank's relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook and signs that an EU-U.S. trade deal is near caused investors to reassess previous assumptions of one more rate cut this year.
In contrast, soft British data is supporting expectations of more Bank of England rate cuts, and causing euro zone bond yields to rise faster than British ones, supporting the euro against the pound.
The euro rose to 87.43 pence versus sterling on Friday, its highest since April, building on a 0.44% gain the previous day. . It was last up 0.4% at 87.42 pence.
Data on Friday showed British retail sales data for June came in slightly below analysts' expectations, albeit rebounding from a sharp drop in May. Figures on Thursday showed business activity grew only weakly in July and employers cut jobs at the fastest pace in five months.
Against the dollar, the pound fell 0.6% to $1.3434 .
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Risk boost from US-EU trade deal of little help to rupee as outflows persist
MUMBAI, July 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Monday, with any support from improved risk sentiment after a trade deal between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. likely to be capped by persistent foreign portfolio outflows. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.48-86.51 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with Friday's close of 86.5150. Global stocks rose and the euro firmed after the weekend deal between the EU and the U.S., which set the import tariff on most EU goods at 15% - half the rate initially threatened. Asian currencies traded mixed, while the dollar index was at 97.6. The U.S.-EU trade pact is expected to reduce trade-related uncertainty in a week dominated by central bank policy decisions and the U.S.'s August 1 deadline for trading partners to strike deals. Washington has already signed similar framework accords with Britain, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam. Meanwhile, India's trade minister told Reuters last week that the country is also hopeful of reaching a deal with the U.S. that includes "special and preferred treatment". Alongside these, monetary policy meetings in the U.S., Japan and other economies will be in focus this week. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, ANZ said it will watch for "tweaks to the language" in the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's comments for clues on possible rate cuts in September. Over the week, traders expect the rupee to hover between 86.20 and 86.80-86.90, with a slight depreciation bias given the persistent outflows from local stocks. Foreign investors have net sold Indian equities worth about $750 million so far in July, reversing three months of inflows. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.63; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.25 paise ** Dollar index at 97.67 ** Brent crude futures up 0.4% at $68.7 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.39% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $231.1mln worth of Indian shares on July 24 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $55.2mln worth of Indian bonds on July 24
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Stocks rise, euro firms after US-EU trade agreement
SINGAPORE, July 28 (Reuters) - Global stocks rose and the euro firmed on Monday after a tradeagreement between the United States and the EU lifted sentiment and provided some clarity in a week of key policy meetings by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate, a week after agreeing to a trade deal with Japan that lowered proposed tariffs on auto imports. Countries are scrambling to finalise trade deals ahead of an August 1 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, with talks between the U.S. and China set for Monday in Stockholm amid expectations of another 90-day extension to the truce between the world's top two economies. "A 15% tariff on European goods, forced purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment and zero tariff retaliation by Europe, that's not negotiation, that's the art of the deal," said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities. "A big win for the U.S." S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq futures gained 0.5% while the euro firmed across the board, rising against the dollar, sterling and yen. European futures surged nearly 1%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab was up 0.27%, just shy of the almost four-year high it touched last week. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.8% after hitting a one-year high last week. While the baseline 15% tariff will still be seen by many in Europe as too high, compared with Europe's initial hopes to secure a zero-for-zero tariff deal, it is better than the threatened 30% rate. The U.S.-EU deal provides clarity to companies and averts a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. "A major tail-risk has now been defused," said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore. "Markets are interpreting this as a sign of stability and predictability returning to trade policy," he added. "The China delay fits the same pattern: the administration is opting for controlled diplomacy over confrontation." China's blue-chip stocks (.CSI300), opens new tab rose 0.3% while the Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI), opens new tab advanced 0.75%. The Australian dollar , often seen as a proxy for risk appetite, was at $0.657, hovering around the near eight-month peak scaled last week. In an action-packed week, investors will watch out for the monetary policy meetings from the Fed and the BOJ as well as the monthly U.S. employment report and earnings from megacap companies Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab. While the Fed and the BOJ are expected to maintain rates, comments from the officials will be crucial for investors to gauge the interest rate path. The trade deal with Japan has opened the door for the BOJ to raise rates again this year. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to be cautious on any rate cuts as officials seek more data to determine tariffs' impact on inflation before they ease rates further. But tensions between the White House and the central bank over monetary policy have increased, with Trump repeatedly lashing out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates. Two of the Fed Board's Trump appointees have articulated reasons for supporting a rate cut this month. "Inflation readings, particularly the PCE index, and the upcoming July jobs report will shape expectations beyond this meeting, with the next likely policy pivot now pushed out to September if inflation continues to ease," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets. In commodities, oil prices rose after the U.S.-EU trade agreement. Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude both rose 0.5%. Gold prices fell on Monday to their lowest in nearly two weeks on reduced appetite for safe havens.
The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
Hong Kong's CK Hutchison seeks Chinese investor to join Panama Ports deal
A Hong Kong conglomerate that's selling ports at the Panama Canal said Monday it may seek a Chinese investor to join a consortium of buyers, a move that could please Beijing but bring more U.S. scrutiny to the geopolitically fraught deal. CK Hutchison Holdings' initial plan to sell its port assets to a group that includes U.S. investment firm BlackRock Inc. pleased President Donald Trump, who has alleged that China interferes with the critical shipping lane's operations in Panama. However, they apparently angered Beijing and drew a review from Chinese anti-monopoly authorities. A Beijing-backed newspaper posted scathing commentaries about the deal, with one describing it as a betrayal of all Chinese. Beijing's offices overseeing Hong Kong affairs have reposted some of these commentaries, widely seen as an indication of Chinese leaders' stance. A Hutchison subsidiary has operated ports at both ends of the Panama Canal since 1997. After months of uncertainty brought by tensions between Washington and Beijing, Hutchison said in a statement that the exclusive negotiations period with the consortium has expired. However, it added 'the Group remains in discussions with members of the consortium with a view to inviting major strategic investor from the PRC to join as a significant member of the consortium,' referring to the People's Republic of China. It said they needed to change the membership of the consortium and the structure of the transaction for the deal to be able to pass reviews by 'all relevant authorities." The awkward position Hutchison found itself in for months highlights the challenges Hong Kong business elites face in navigating Beijing's expectations of national loyalty, especially when relations between China and the United States are strained. Hong Kong has overhauled its electoral system to ensure the city is run by 'patriots.' CK Hutchison is owned by the family of Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing. It announced March 4 that it would sell all its shares in Hutchison Port Holdings and in Hutchison Port Group Holdings to the consortium that also includes BlackRock subsidiary Global Infrastructure Partners and Terminal Investment Limited, a subsidiary of the Mediterranean Shipping Company. In May, Hutchinson co-managing director, Dominic Lai told shareholders that Terminal Investment was the main investor. Its parent company is led by Italian shipping scion Diego Aponte, whose family reportedly has a longstanding relationship with Li's. The initial deal, valued at nearly $23 billion including $5 billion in debt, would have given the consortium control over 43 ports in 23 countries, including the ports of Balboa and Cristobal, located at either end of the canal. That agreement also required approval from Panama's government. The deadline for their exclusive negotiation period ended on July 27.
