The MLB prospects execs say are most likely to be traded at the deadline

New York Times

18 hours ago

Which top prospects could be on the move in the biggest trades before the July 31 deadline?
In my recent poll of MLB front offices, I asked executives about the major leaguers most likely to be dealt at this year's trade deadline, but also inquired about the big-name prospects they felt could be swapped to land that big-league talent.
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I surveyed more than 40 executives, mostly presidents of baseball operations and general managers. They were granted anonymity so they could answer candidly, as well as asked not to include any of their own players.
The results, like the major-league portion of our survey, were interesting — with a wide mix of names, but two prospects came up the most: outfielder Owen Caissie of the Cubs and catcher Harry Ford of the Mariners.
Keep in mind that none of the teams mentioned below are necessarily trying to trade these prospects, but these are young, talented players those contenders could need to part with to acquire key major leaguers to help them win now. Trading away prospects is always difficult, but it's the only way — apart from promotions in select cases — these teams can add difference-making major leaguers for the stretch run.
Here are the top prospects our panel of executives thought were most likely to get traded before the July 31 deadline, listed in order of the number of times they were mentioned.
Caissie was the prospect mentioned the most by execs — and it wasn't even close. He is slashing .258/.369/.496 with 18 doubles and 12 homers this season, his second in Triple A. Caissie, 22, appears to be major-league-ready but is blocked because the Cubs have an elite outfield. Five years ago, the Cubs acquired Caissie as one of the prospect headliners in the Yu Darvish trade with the Padres. Now, in all likelihood, they will trade him for pitching at the deadline.
Ford was mentioned second-most by a considerable margin. Most of those execs believed that, because of the Cal Raleigh's long-term contract, Ford is the most valuable and expendable prospect in Seattle's strong farm system. The Mariners are looking for a corner infield power bat, and it would make sense to dangle Ford, who was the 12th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. He is batting .307/.421/.473 with nine homers and 46 RBIs this season in Triple A.
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A 2023 first-round pick, Matthews is slashing .280/.397/.480 with 10 homers and 23 stolen bases this season in Triple A. He can play second base, shortstop, third base and center field. There's only one way I could see the Astros trading Matthews, 23, this month — if they could get an impact left-handed-hitting second baseman in return — and I'm not sure whom they'd target. However, his name kept coming up so there could be a potential match somewhere out there.
Williams, 22, is another big-name prospect several execs mentioned. He is hitting just .212 this season in Triple A, with 11 doubles, 14 homers and 14 steals. A first-round pick in 2021, Williams has struck out 35.4 percent of the time in his minor-league career and is slightly above that rate this season. Still, he's the Rays' top prospect, and it would need to be a difference-making deal for them to consider moving him.
I'm not sure I believe that the Yankees will trade Jones, who has slashed .283/.396/.628 this season with 19 home runs, 35 RBIs and 11 stolen bases between Double A and Triple A. However, if the 24-year-old is dealt, expect it to be a huge deal for a top starter or an impact second or third baseman. That said, I don't think he'll be traded.
If the Dodgers make yet another big trade deadline deal, most executives believe that Hope will be the prospect headliner going the other way. The Dodgers acquired Hope and lefty Jackson Ferris last year in a trade with the Cubs for first baseman Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte. Hope, 20, has batted .300/.401/.468 with 20 doubles, seven homers and 11 steals this season in High A. The Athletic's Keith Law had him No. 39 in his most recent top prospects ranking.
The Reds are looking for an impact bat at the trade deadline. Their prospect cabinet is loaded with shortstops and third basemen, and most teams believe the switch-hitting 21-year-old will be the one they deal. They acquired Arroyo in the Luis Castillo trade with the Mariners at the 2022 deadline. He missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder. He has batted .268/.329/.329 with nine doubles and 32 runs scored this season in Double A.
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A.J Preller and the Padres are always looking to make a splash at the trade deadline and are never afraid to trade their top prospects. Salas, 19, is already at Double A, though he's been sidelined since mid-April with a lower back injury. He's lost a little prospect shine due to his offensive struggles — .221/.325/.210 slash line over three seasons and 800 plate appearances — but has time to figure it out. I doubt the Padres will trade him unless they can get an All-Star major leaguer in return who could help them win during this key window for their roster.
(Top photo of Owen Caissie: Michael Spomer/ Cal Sport Media via Associated Press)