Odds, Lines, Prop Bets And Predictions
Saturday's UFC Vegas 106 fight card is nearly upon us. In the main event of the UFC Fight Night, which takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns faces the undefeated Michael Morales. Meanwhile, in the evening's light heavyweight co-main event, Paul Craig meets Rodolfo Bellato. We look at the betting odds, line movement, prediction, picks, and prop bets for the UFC Vegas 106 main card.
UFC Vegas 106 streams on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. The prelims begin at 4:00 p.m. ET.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MAY 16: Michael Morales of Ecuador poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night ... More weigh-in at the Santa Fe Station Hotel & Casino on May 16, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Burns (22-8) is the No. 8 competitor in the official UFC welterweight rankings. Burns had won six straight when he battled then-UFC welterweight champ Kamaru Usman in February 2021. Usman won that contest by TKO in the third round. Since that setback, the 38-year-old Burns has gone 3-4. He is riding a three-fight losing skid heading into UFC Vegas 106, falling to Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady in those contests.
Burns fell from No. 6 to No. 8 following his UFC Vegas 97 decision loss to Brady in September 2024.
Morales (17-0) joined the UFC in 2021 when he won a contract via a decision victory on a Dana White's Contender Series fight card. Since then, Morales has gone 5-0 with the UFC with three knockouts and two decisions.
The 25-year-old Morales broke into the official UFC welterweight rankings in August when he earned a 'Performance of the Night' bonus for his first-round knockout win over long-time UFC competitor Neil Magny.
The main event of UFC Vegas 106 is an excellent opportunity for the 38-year-old Burns to show that he remains an elite UFC welterweight. As for Morales, Saturday's UFC Fight Night is his chance to show that he belongs among the top 10 of the 170-pound division.
When the betting odds opened for the UFC Vegas 106 main event, Morales was a significant -600 betting favorite over the +425 Burns. Today, Morales comes in at -800, while Burns is the +550 betting underdog.
With the lopsided odds, it's no surprise to see that 91 percent of wagers have come in on Burns. However, it is somewhat surprising that Morales has earned 59 percent of the handle while presenting so little betting value.
The pick is for Morales to win via decision, but the value is clearly in Burns to win via upset.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MAY 16: (L-R) Opponents Rodolfo Bellato of Brazil and Paul Craig of Scotland ... More face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at the Santa Fe Station Hotel & Casino on May 16, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Paul Craig has been with the UFC since 2016. He enters his UFC Vegas 106 matchup against Rodolfo Bellato on the worst run of his professional career, going 1-5 since July 2022 and losing his past three outings. Craig knows Saturday's fight could be his last under the UFC banner with a loss. As for Bellato, he is a relative newcomer to the UFC, joining the promotion via the Dana White's Contender Series in 2023. He is 1-0-1 with the promotion and coming off a UFC 312 draw with Jimmy Crute.
When the betting odds opened for this bout, Bellato was the -350 favorite over the +275 Craig. Today, Bellato is listed at -550, while Craig is the +400 underdog. Craig has 70 percent of the bets, while 65 percent of the money is on Bellato.
The betting pick is Bellato to win via knockout, but for those looking for value, Craig by submission, while extremely unlikely, is the bet.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MAY 16: (L-R) Opponents Sodiq Yusuff of Nigeria and Mairon Santos of Brazil face ... More off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at the Santa Fe Station Hotel & Casino on May 16, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Sodiq Yusuff ends an absence of more than a year at UFC Vegas 106. He makes his lightweight debut following a 6-3 featherweight run with the UFC. Yusuff, who has back-to-back losses on his record heading into Saturday's fight card, faces Marion Santos, who is 2-0 with the UFC and the winner of Season 32 of 'The Ultimate Fighter.'
When the odds opened on this contest, Yusuff was a +120 betting underdog to the -145 Santos. Those odds have shifted slightly. Today, Yusuff is +120, while Santos is the -140 favorite. Yusuff has 51 percent of the bets, while Santos has 60 percent of the handle.
The betting pick is Yusuff to win via decision.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MAY 16: (L-R) Opponents Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev of Uzbekistan ... More face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at the Santa Fe Station Hotel & Casino on May 16, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
The opening odds in this middleweight matchup saw Dustin Stoltzfus at +220, while Nursulton Ruziboev came in at -275. Today, Stoltzfus is listed at +230, while Ruziboev is the -285 betting favorite. Ruziboev has 63 percent of the bets in his favor, and a whopping 93 percent of the money is on him.
The betting pick is Ruziboev to win via knockout.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MAY 16: (L-R) Opponents Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa of Brazil face off ... More during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at the Santa Fe Station Hotel & Casino on May 16, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Opening the UFC Vegas 106 main card is a featherweight scrap between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa. Costa was the opening favorite at -170 and he remains the favorite at +185. Erosa was a +140 underdog at opening. Today, he is listed at +150. Seventy percent of the bets are on Erosa, but 72 percent of the handle is on Costa.
The betting pick is Costa to win via decision.
*All numbes via BetMGM
Michael Morales to beat Gilbert Burns via KO/TKO: -185
Michael Morales to land more significant strikes than Gilbert Burns: -400
Rodolfo Bellato to beat Paul Craig via KO/TKO: -170
Paul Craig to beat Rodolfo Bellato via submission: +600
Rodolfo Bellato to land more significant strikes than Paul Craig: +400
Nursulton Ruziboev to beat Dustin Stoltzfus via KO/TKO: -150
Melquizael Costa to beat Julian Erosa via KO/TKO: +200
*Odds via BetOnline
Gabriel Green vs. Matheus Camilo
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moisés
Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa
Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes
Park Hyun-sung vs. Carlos Hernandez
Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro
Yadier Del Valle vs. Connor Matthews
Saturday, May 17, 2025
UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
Main Card: ESPN+
Preliminary Card: ESPN+
Prelims: 4:00 p.m. ET
Main Card: 7:00 p.m. ET
We will have more on the UFC Vegas 106 fight card as fight night nears, including results, reactions and highlights on fight night.
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